Max Dolente Asked Me To Find Stats To Prove Joel Embiid Is Better In The Playoffs Than Jayson Tatum And I Can't Believe It, But He's Right
Elsa. Getty Images.I just received this query request from a user in Hawaii - much to my surprise. I don't get many NBA Playoffs inquiries from any of the Hawaiian Islands. In fact, this might be the first. With no professional basketball team - or major four sport in general - Hawaiians are much too busy living life slow and driving on the highways upwards of 13.5 miles per hour. The fast-paced nature of the NBA Playoffs just isn't their style. Of course - Hawaii being a destination island - there are far more occupants than local citizens. However most vacationers who bleed for their NBA team seldom book a stay during the height of the playoffs. For most fandoms - you don't risk missing your team play a seven-game set.
These fandoms do not include the Philadelphia 76ers.
Max Dolente's query is exactly what we all read it as. A cry for help. A flare shot high in the sky in hopes to regain relevance to any single soul that might see it. Is Joel Embiid a better playoff performer than current champion Jayson Tatum? I will do my best to make the case. To play the role of the flare. To help Max be seen by someone. Anyone.
Let's get into StatGPT mode.
Let's start with the basics. Tatum has played 120 playoff games while Embiid is just less than half of that at 59. But this isn't a playoff longevity break down. This is a pound for pound who's the best player in the playoffs breakdown. And a cursory glance at some basics raises an eyebrow or two…
Points Per Game:
Joel Embiid - 24.9
Jayson Tatum - 24.1
Plus / Minus
Joel Embiid - 4.5
Jayson Tatum - 4.1
True Shooting PCT
Joel Embiid - 58%
Jayson Tatum - 55%
Team Points
Joel Embiid Teams - 107
Jayson Tatum Teams - 106.9
Blocks
Joel Embiid - 1.67
Jayson Tatum - .87
Rebounds
Joel Embiid - 10.86
Jayson Tatum - 8.17
Minutes Played
Joel Embiid - 34
Jayson Tatum - 38
Stats explained
- Plus/Minus indicates how good your team does when you are playing vs when you are on the bench (like when you get tapped on the shoulder and fall to the ground into pieces, or get ejected for acting like a complete idiot - you might play just 34 minutes per game on average instead of 38).
- True shooting is a big one too. It gives credit to players who shoot threes and get to the free throw line to provide an all-encompassing scoring efficiency stat per opportunity. While Tatum shoots many more threes than Embiid - he's not that great at it (much like the Celtics overall, who get confused by dumb broadcasters as "the most prolific three point scoring team ever" when really they are just the most prolific three-point taking team ever).
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Embiid leads in all these basic categories except minutes played which makes him even that much more efficient. So he usually does a good job helping his team before he exits the game either by making like glass or acting like an ass.
But let's get a little more advanced here. Player rating is probably one of the better stats we could use for a fuller view. Let's pop off a quick little table comparing the two players in offensive and defensive rating:
Remember - lower defensive rating is better. It's like saying Embiid allows 106.6 points on average per 100 possessions vs Tatum's 108.3. So the slight advantage Tatum has on the offensive side is countered by Embiid's defensive impact.
Looks like Max actually has a good case here. Let's get a little more granular to make sure. How do these players fare in the moments their team needs them the most? I'm going to be honest - I knew Jayson Tatum's clover wilted under pressure, but I didn't know it got shredded into pieces.
NBA's official "Clutch" shooting (final five minutes of a 5-point game or less)
Let's get one thing straight. The NBA's codified "clutch" qualification is arbitrary and lazy as fuck. Five minutes? Really? We're really going to say the guy that hit a jumper with his team up five and 4:53 left was put under any sort of elevated level of stress? Official "Clutch" is a stat for losers. A true clutch shot needs to be more restrictive. Well get there - but for now let's play the NBA's game and size up both Tatum and Embiid in official playoff clutch percentage.
Loading up the query output…
Well look at that. The EXACT same rate to the thousandths column. OK - fine tenth column if we convert to a percentage. But the only thing to argue here is if 32/92 sounds more impressive than 23/66. I think I'm going 23/66. It's just too hard to unsee the 60 misses on Tatum's ledger. And besides - 34.8% is pretty abysmal anyway so at least Embiid can play the "smaller sample size" card. That's the privilege of being made of glass and not playing in as many playoff games.
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But again. The NBA's idea of what makes a shot clutch is stupid. We should at least make it only the last 30 seconds. Let's execute that code…
Ad Embiid again. By one single attempt. But this is still not what I'd call truly clutch. You can't have any realistic second chance after a true clutch shot is taken. So let's do only the final ten seconds of a 3-point game or less. Five doesn't make any sense anyway. No pressure in hitting an uncontested garbage three at the buzzer when you're down five.
Final 10 seconds: 3-pt game or less (an actual clutch moment)
Check mate. 0/5. Small sample size? Sure. But maybe that's a little bit on Tatum anyway. You have to actually shoot in these clutch moments to obtain a sample size:
Thanks for asking StatGPT, Max. And congrats. Joel Embiid is a better playoff performer than Jayson Tatum. Boston fans can hate it and throw the lazy ring argument all they want, but the numbers cut through the superior supporting cast Tatum has and has had to carry him to a championship.
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Is Tatum a better player through and through? Of course he is. Is Embiid an oft-injured lazy complainer that shares the Luka Doncic school of offseason training? Of course he is. But that's what makes this finding that much more amazing. Thanks again for reaching out, Max.