The 2024 Oscar Nominations Breakdown And Predictions! Bonus: What The Hell Is "Emilia Perez?"
Lets run it down from the bottom to the top. I'll skip some of the more niche categories.
Sound: ( A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Wild Robot)
Who will win? Dune. Wicked is the only other contender but I use that term lightly here.
Who should win? Also Dune. A lot of what makes this movie work is it's immersion and a lot of that comes from the atmospheric sounds of Arakis. Worms, lasers, bombs, engines etc.
Thoughts: This will be the beginning of the Emilia Perez hate fest. There is nothing about the SOUND of this movie that is impressive. If you wanted to compliment the music? Sure. Not the SOUND as defined for this category.
Costume Design: (A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked)
Who will win? Wicked. Theater dorks are the people that vote on this and they love this movie.
Who should win? I think Conclave and Nosferatu both impressed me more. Especially the latter because of the insane amount of detail put into the production by Eggers.
Thoughts: Dune probably should have gotten some love here. At least over A Complete Unknown.
Visual Effects: (Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked)
Who will win? Dune.
Who should win? Also Dune. The volume of effects needed for the movie is insane and there is never a point where they look bad. Denis is one of the few sci fi directors that seems to get the look audiences want out of the genre.
Thoughts: I think Wicked's effects looked kind of bad, especially in the big moments near the end. But, at the same time, I don't think there is anything I would put over it. Better Man also got lucky in that regard. I was happy to see Alien: Romulus get some love, though, cause the effects looked great outside of CGI Ian Holm (which was not necessary).
Makeup and Hairstyling: (A Different Man, Emilia Perez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked)
Who will win? The Substance. This category was basically a character of the movie and it was done extremely well.
Who should win? I'm totally fine with either The Substance or Nosferatu taking it. Both movies were really good in this category.
Thoughts: Again, Emilia Perez did nothing to suggest getting nominated here. Not impressive or important to the movie.
International Feature Film: (I'm Still Here, The Girl with The Needle, Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Flow)
Who will win? Emilia Perez, unfortunately.
Who should win? The Seed of the Sacred Fig. I say this not so confidently because I have not seen Im Still Here or The Girl With the Needle. But Sacred Fig was really good and incredibly moving.
Thoughts: Again, Emilia Perez, man. This movie was not just some Academy bait stuff like A Complete Unknown. It is a BAD movie. REAL BAD. The fact that it's in every category is embarassing but the fact that it's likely going to beat some very good movies is lame as shit.
Editing: (Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Wicked)
Who will win? This is kind of a toss up. I'd put my money on The Brutalist right now but there is good value in Conclave too.
Who should win? Dune: Part Two was obviously amazing and the editing had a massive impact on it's success. So for it to not even get nominated is a shame.
Thoughts: A reoccurring theme you will see here is Emilia Perez taking the place of an actually deserving movie. In this case, Dune: Part Two. I will note that the Brutalist has a good chance of winning and definitely would deserve it. For a 3 hour movie, it never really dragged.
Production Design: (The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked)
Who will win? Wicked. Again, the dorks are gonna try to give Wicked wins where they can and this is an easy one to get away with.
Who should win? I would still lean on Dune Part Two. Again, for a giant sci fi movie set in space, you always feel immersed and don't have to suspend disbelief too much.
Thoughts: Again, Emilia Perez can get lost. Bad movie that was put together poorly. The Brutalist for sure deserves love because it throws you smack into the middle of post war America with a ton of attention to detail. Same thing with Nosferatu, same thing with Conclave. Wicked is also deserving for their practical sets.
Best Original Song: (El Mal, The Journey, Like A Bird, Mi Camino, Never Too Late)
Who will win? El Mal.
Who should win? Honestly, the category sucks this year. So if one of the two Emilia Perez songs wins, who cares.
Best Original Score (The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Wild Robot)
Who will win? The Brutalist is the favorite so far but I could see Conclave making waves.
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Who should win? Out of this grouping? The Brutalist. I think Challengers should have gotten the nom and probably won, though.
Thoughts: Again, Challengers should have gotten a nod. Great work from Reznor and Ross as always. And, evergreen here, fuck Emilia Perez.
Best Animated Feature Film: (Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit, The Wild Robot)
Who will win? Money is on the Wild Robot but Flow isn't crazy far behind.
Who should win? Both of the movies above were clearly the best animated movie of the year. So either one winning is cool.
Thoughts: Not a ton here. I think Transformers One was a very pleasant surprise but I get why it didn't make the cut.
Best Cinematography: (The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Maria, Nosferatu)
Who will win? I'd be shocked if the Brutalist loses.
Who should win? I don't hate it winning either. Some incredible camera work throughout a long run time.
Thoughts: Nickel Boys should have gotten a nod here. The camera's POV was literally a character and it moved the entire movie (which was very good). And, again, fuck Emilia Perez.
Best Original Screenplay: (Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance)
Who will win? Anora is the big favorite and I get why. It's a really tight script and, like most Sean Baker movies, the dialogue feels very authentic while also being pretty funny in spots.
Who should win? No issue at all with Anora here.
Thoughts: I think A Real Pain had some incredible writing done by Eisenberg. Specifically his monologue at the dinner sequence. Glad to see it get some love.
Best Adapted Screenplay: (A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing)
Who will win? Conclave looks to be the favorite here
Who should win? It's kind of hard to judge when I haven't read the source material. But, out of this grouping, I really liked Sing Sing's.
Thoughts: Fuck Emilia Perez.
Best Supporting Actress: (Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande - Wicked, Felicity Jones - The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini - Conclave, Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez)
Who will win? Zoe Saldana is the big favorite as of right now.
Who should win? It's a pretty weak field this year. Saldana was fine but she also wasn't really a supporting actress (same issue with Ariana Grande). Rossellini was good but barely in the movie. Felicity Jones was also nothing special to me here.
Thoughts: Again, just a bad field. I guess I'm surprised Qualley didn't get a nod considering how bad the options are and the love The Substance got.
Best Supporting Actor: (Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain, Guy Pearce- The Brutalist, Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown, Yura Borisov - Anora, Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice)
Who will win? It's Culkin's to lose.
Who should win? Culkin. The only argument against him is that the role "similar" to Roman Roy. But who cares as long as it is well done.
Thoughts: Not really any snubs here or anything. I don't feel Ed Norton did anything to say top-5 on the year but there aren't drastically better options.
Best Lead Actress: (Cynthia Erivo - Wicked, Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez, Mikey Madison - Anora, Demi Moore- The Substance, Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here)
Who will win? Right now it's looking like a close race between Madison and Moore with the latter in a slim lead. I'd bet on the former, though.
Who should win? The Substance depended on two actresses being great. Anora all hinged on Mikey Madison being perfect and she was.
Thoughts: I want to note that I could see the Academy giving Karla Sofia Gascon, the first trans woman nominated for an Oscar, the win here for performative reasons. At the same time, she was the best part of a bad movie so I don't want anyone to think she is some sort of scrub.
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Best Lead Actor: (Adrien Brody - The Brutalist, Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo - Sing Sing, Ralph Finnes - Conclave, Sebastian Stan -The Apprentice)
Who will win? Adrian Brody is the favorite. When a Holocaust related movie comes out, he comes runnin out the tunnel like prime LeBron.
Who should win? Brody was incredible so no issue there.
Thoughts: Something weird about this field is that two actors were nominated for what I feel were their second best performances of the year. Chalamet was on another level in Dune and Stan was incredible in A Different Man. I'm a little surprised Craig didn't get a nom for Queer, knowing the Academy, but that's not a huge deal.
Best Director: (Sean Baker - Anora, Brady Corbet - The Brutalist, James Mangold - A Complete Unknown, Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez, Coralie Fargeat - The Substance)
Who will win? I'd be surprised in Corbet lost. The film twitter bubble is mad about AI but the academy doesn't care about that shit.
Who should win? No problem at all with Corbet or Baker here. Both did incredible work.
Thoughts: Fuck Emilia Perez. Once again, taking a spot away from a deserving name. In this case, Denis Villenueve and Edward Berger. Both of them should have made it over Farget, Audiard and Mangold.
Best Picture: (Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked)
Who will win? The Brutalist is the favorite, but not by much over Conclave.
Who should win? Either of those plus Anora would be fine.
Thoughts: Fuck Emilia Perez. My personal #1 of the year, A Real Pain, didn't make the cut which sucks and neither did Sing Sing.
Overall, 2024 was not a great year for movies. Some solid stuff at the top but it was really missing that oomph of some previous seasons. The biggest question mark to me is really Emilia Perez. Just a truly shit movie that seemingly nobody liked outside of the academy. So now, instead of becoming a mostly forgotten Netflix failure, it is going to have an infamous legacy as a movie that inexplicably got nomination spots that good movies deserved. Gooch actually brought up a good theory on LCB. What if the Academy has just been infiltrated by Frenchman? It would explain a lot of the nominations!
Anyway, check out the full ep either above on YT or below on Rumble.