NFL Survival Pool Journey - Mapping Out The Season And Your Week 2 Pick
Getty Images.Survival pool waders - this blog is for you.
Avoiding Cincinnati in Week 1 of my first year doing a survivor pool felt pretty good. I bet it did for you too, didn't it? I'm assuming you didn't pick them since you opened this blog. What a lesson to be learned for team "I just want to get a Week 1 win". It wasn't that I thought the Bengals had any chance of losing (lost a big parlay thanks to those bums), but I pencil mapped out my full season of picks and just felt this would probably be the only week I'd feel confident about Seattle considering they faced a rookie quarterback in his first start. Especially in Seattle.
Cincinnati flat blew it. Boom. 36% of my pool has drowned. I'm guessing your pool team charts looks similar if you have anywhere near the 900 entries mine does.
I'm already in love trying to figure this game all out. As a recreational poker player, the combination of probabilities and game theory makes this feel very much like I'm in a multi-table tournament. I love it. And Week 1 rewarded me for finding a pick I thought was safe enough in Seattle while also not the overwhelming darling of the pool. Upsets happen all the time in the NFL - and especially in Week 1. So to see balancing the odds of losing 36% of my competition (even though I didn't know what that exact percentage would be beforehand) hit feels like I'm on the right track.
But it's a long season.
Week 1 Bengals pickers got rivered hard and fell off the waterfall, but I'm still treading with a bunch of others. So if you're in a pool (hopefully not mine) I figured I'd run a weekly blog with my updated picks and reasons why. I know there's fancy metrics out from hardos giving the EV on every play - which is cool - but I don't really know what goes into those models so I'll just rely on my own logic. For those reading who are hardos - feel free to school me in the comments. I'm open to learning.
Let's start by mapping out the season in pencil. Like - LIGHT pencil. We all know the first few weeks of the NFL season can surprise us in learning who the good teams will be but we need a place to start at least. Couldn't find a great option to do this online so spent probably more time making one on my own than I'll spend in the tournament:
My Current Board:
Bench squad - teams who aren't picked to win a game thus capable of subbing in
UPDATE - PENCIL IS ALREADY FLIPPED OVER READY TO ERASE WEEK 11 DOLPHINS
Alright let's talk some viable plays here in route to explaining my pick of Chargers on the road. Since I don't know the percentages of any team in my pool, I'm notating percent taken in my CBS weekly pick-em as a proxy.
Baltimore Ravens (97%) vs Las Vegas Raiders
Baltimore hanging with the champs until the very end of the toe and game to open up the season when everyone was watching seems to lead me to think that will be a popular pick at home to a lowly rated 0-1 Raiders. At -440 moneyline that gives them an 81.5% implied chance of winning - highest figure for any team in Week 2.
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I think this game is the "I just want to survive another week" pick that sunk Bengals pickers in Week 1. A lot of people will flock with the birds and that's part of the reason I'm staying away. Think of it this way. 19.5% chance you might lose another 30-40 percent of your pool. Unless everyone else is thinking this way too. In which case, well… shit.
But that's not the real reason I'm staying away. I have Baltimore penciled in for Week 6 hosting the Commanders as it stands now. It's a tough week. Other possibilities include Texans at Patriots, 49ers at Seahawks, or Eagles at home vs the Browns. I'd gladly shift to Eagles here if it weren't for a brutal Week 14 when they play Carolina (byemageddon by the way) in which the only other good looking entre at this point is 49ers at home for Chicago. So long as Caleb Williams doesn't figure it out by then.
So yeah - I'm out on Baltimore. Keep them in your pocket. Similar logic for not taking Chiefs or Eagles this week. We can't just pick the team that makes us feel the most confident. The fact of the matter is you have to figure you'll need to win every week to outlast everyone in your pool.
Indianapolis Colts (69%) AT Green Bay Packers
Kind of surprised the Colts are only 69% picked in pick-ems but I have to think they'll have the eye of many survivor leaguers including myself. Malik Willis is very, very, not great from all accounts. So if there's a week to play the Packers, seems like this might be it.
But dear God, Anthony Richardson is just too big a freaking wild card to put a stamp on. Tack on that they'll be on the road. I don't care if this is the only game that the Colts might be playable. I just can't do it. Green Bay has a great offensive line. They'll be running the ball and hoping to take advantage of mistakes from the young gunslinging Colt. Plus, I'd love to see if Willis really is as bad on the Packers as he was on the Titans. Show me that and I'll look into pitting Packer opponents into the mix moving forward.
Dallas Cowboys (89%) vs New Orleans Saints
This one was intriguing. The Saints came off a blowout win which might scare people into shying away from Dallas without fully considering the fact that the Saints opponent was the Panthers. Dallas has a great defense that should be able to bring Derek Car back to earth. I just fear Dak does something stupid against a very solid Saints defense. Plus I don't like the chain reaction of moving my Week 13 Cowboys pick. I could easily change to Chiefs over Raiders at home but I like them better at home vs the Raiders.
Definitely a solid pick though. They are my runner up.
THE PICK!
Los Angeles Chargers (97%) AT Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are still monumentally bad. There was no progress in Bryce Young's game. Nothing. And he has nothing around him. It takes a lot to get slaughtered by a Derek Carr led Saints. I expect this to probably be the most picked team aside from Baltimore which I'm OK with. Much like taking Seattle in Week 1. But who knows? Maybe the west coast playing on east coast factor will lead people to fade this one.
I just feel like there's no reason to not believe in the Panthers. For all the wrong reasons. I just think that if ever there were a week when eyeballs weren't all on Carolina, this week might be it given the national attention on both the Ravens playing the champs tough and Malik Willis looking like a lost puppy in failing to even attempt a Hail Mary.
Hope you're all still with me next week. That is - if I'm still floating.