Taking The Detroit Pistons +70,000 To Lose The Rest Of Their 54 Games This Season Might Not Just Be The Funnest Bet You Make, But The Sharpest
Brian Sevald. Getty Images.OK, this bet is a long shot, but promises to be a fun ride for anyone who isn't an avid Pistons fan. I'll be honest, the in-season tournament didn't do much to get me excited about the NBA season, but now that there's a way to bet the Pistons to go the distance and lose the rest of their games, I'm all in (to check the Pistons game cast in the 4th quarter). This team has lost 25-straight and is just three away from the all-time record (multiple seasons included). They might not have a fighter's chance to lose out from here, but definitely a surrenderer's chance.
Here's my Michael Burry short play: Pistons to lose every one of their remaining 54 games at +70,000 on Draft Kings.
Sometimes I think market makers just stick a big number for something so outrageously implausible. You could get the Chicago Bears to win the Super Bowl at +50,000 which seems incredibly less likely to happen than the Pistons losing out. But let's run some numbers here. At +70k, oddmakers are effectively saying they think the odds of this happening are about .14% ~ 100 / (100 +70,000).
But let's use some quasi-Bayesian reasoning to estimate our own odds model. At 2-26 the Pistons have lost 92.9 percent of their games. Let's assume that's their true lose-percentage for any game on average. Sure some opponents will be better than others, but it all evens out. If the Pistons truly have a 92.9% chance of losing any particular game, that would give us a 1.8 percent chance they lose the rest of their 54 games (.929^54).
A 1.8 percent chance aint great - but compared to the breakeven .1 percent the oddmakers are giving us??? That's value baby!
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Here's the Pistons full schedule with percent chance of them losing each and every game from here on out. Let's use this as a road map to see what we're up against.
Let's discuss. There are some real challenges that lay ahead:
- Three games vs the Wizards
- Two vs the Hornets
- Two vs the Trail Blazers
- Two vs the Bulls (last team they beat)
- Two vs the Spurs including what could be a nail-biting final game of the year
It's going to be really hard to lose all eleven of these marquee sad offs along with - oh yeah - the 43 other games, but I think this team might have it in them go full Henry Lockwood. If nothing else, it's going to be a fun ride that might legitimately end in disappoinment on game #82.
And I take back what I said at the top. This bet should be fun regardless if you're a Pistons fan or not. At this point, who cares? Lean into the bad and have a little fun. Theres a 98 percent chance we won't win but 100 percent chance we'll enjoy the ride.
- Jeffro