Things To Watch For In Today's Western Conference Finals Game 3
First off, let’s hope that tonight’s Rockets/Warriors game is actually competitive. That’s Step 1. It would be pretty shitty if after waiting all this time if both Game 3s were absolute duds. The good news is, these two teams are really good and all signs point to this being a competitive game up in Oakland. Tied at 1-1, the Warriors head into Game 3 as -8 favorites, which personally feels a little high to me. Especially with the beatdown the Rockets just handed GS in their blowout Game 2 win. Perhaps that’s the trend of this series though, that if you’re going to win a game, it’s not going to be close. I suppose time will tell, but as we prepare for tip off here are some things that you should keep an eye out for.
Is Steph Curry really hurt?
Ah the tradition as old as time itself. Steph Curry struggled in Game 2, which naturally means he’s hurt. Or at least that’s what the internet wants you to believe as it’s impossible to comprehend that Steph would struggle if he was fully healthy. I must say, he looked OK in his return against NO, where he averaged 19.6 points on 47/44% shooting. So far in this series he’s down to 17.0 points on 44/15% shooting. Nevermind that the Rockets were one of the better defensive teams all year, it has to be because Curry isn’t right.
Which is why I am so excited to see his performance tonight. If he plays well, what happens to that narrative? If he’s shut down again by CP3 & Co, will Warriors fans be able to handle the fact that maybe he’s not hurt just playing poorly?
The Warriors defense
It’s early, but the Warriors defense so far this series has been pretty terrible. They’ve had a 112.5 defensive rating through two games, which is more than 8 points higher than their regular season average. Their biggest weaknesses so far are names you would not expect
Kevin Durant – 115.2 rating
Draymond Green – 114.0 rating
Klay Thompson – 112.5 rating
Andre Iguodala – 122.0 rating
This was always the concern about going up against a Rockets team that had a historic offensive season. They have the weapons to exploit the at times l lazy GS defense, and so far that’s exactly what’s happened.
The Rockets role players
I think it’s unfair to expect the same type of efficient offensive production that the Rockets got from their role players in Game 2, as that was clearly a huge reason why they were able to pull it out. The question will be can those same guys, Ariza/Tucker/Gordon, show up on the road in this series. So far this playoffs they’ve risen to the challenge, with Ariza having an Ortg of 118.2, Tucker 115.9, and Gordon 110.1 all on the road so it’s not crazy to think that if the Warriors defense isn’t going to come around that the Rockets role players will be able to take advantage.
Remember, this is a HOU team that went 31-10 on the road this season (best in the NBA), and they have the talent to win in any building. I know the Warriors are usually a different beast at home, but the Rockets did win there on Opening Night.
Will Harden and CP3 rebound from their inefficient Game 2
Make no mistake though, if the Rockets want to pull this game out, they are going to need their two best players to be better than 10-38 from the field. Especially Harden who really struggled going 9-24 (3-15). Just focusing on the point total won’t be enough, these two guys have to be efficient. Knowing that the role players may take a slight step back, this becomes even more important.
I’d also like to see them get Capela more involved in the offense instead of just forcing bad shots. Run some P&Rs and get some easy buckets.
How the hell will HOU slow down Durant
They certainly haven’t done it yet. Through two games Durant is averaging 37.5 points on 55/46% splits while making 3 3PM a night. Absolutely nothing has worked or even come close to slowing Durant down. Put Tucker on him, Luc Mbah a Moute, Gordon, it doesn’t matter. Durant has been burning everything in his path, and he’s doing it by getting to his spots with ease.
This hasn’t been a case where Durant has gone on to do nothing but make incredibly tough contested shots from tough spots. He’s LIVED in the paint and the restricted area, with about 10 shots a game coming from those two spots. No big deal, he’s just shooting 70% from those spots.
If HOU wants to slow Durant down, they have to force him outside of the paint. If he’s going to post you up, put a damn body on him and get him off his spot. The Rockets inability to prevent Durant from catching the ball wherever he wants it has been a major issue.
Who makes more threes
For two teams who rely heavily on the three point shot, this is rather important. In Game 1, they tied at 13 a piece. In Game 2 the Rockets went nuts making 16 to the Warriors 9. It seems too obvious that how these two teams shoot from deep will determine the outcome, but both take over 31 3PA a night. Hell HOU nearly takes 40. The second one of these teams starts to feel it from deep it’s going to force the other team to try and counter by making more themselves. You have to think the Warriors aren’t going to go 9-30 again in Game 3, so perimeter defense is going to be extremely important for both sides.
Will Kerr actually play David West or go with more Kevon Looney
To be frank, David West has been a disaster this series. He has an overall net rating of -8.0 this series, and honestly this entire playoffs the Warriors have been much worse defensively with him on the court. Their Drtg jumps to 110.1 with him on compared to 99.1 off, which is why we haven’t really seen him. That’s tough for GS on the offensive end, because he does help them there.
Instead, they’ve gone with Kevon Looney who has done the complete opposite. While you don’t get much from Looney offensively, he does really help you on the other end, where the Warriors have a 98.6 rating with him on the floor and a 103.8 rating with him off. If it were me, I would go with Looney just because for this Warriors team the defense is way more important, but if their shots aren’t falling I';d be curious to see if Kerr is willing to sacrifice that for the offense West brings.
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After being left for dead once they dropped Game 1, the Rockets responded and showed the basketball world that thinking this series is over might be a little foolish. They can absolutely go into GS and win one of these next two games, and for them if they are able to pull out Game 3 would really put the pressure on GS. Draymond says this team is at their best when threatened, and we’re about to find out just how true that is. I can’t wait.