NBA Draft Scouting Report: Jalen Brunson Signs With An Agent
As we transition from the college basketball season to NBA Draft season I’ll be breaking down the scouting reports for various players across the country who are expected to be in the NBA Draft. We’ll focus on seniors and those with agents to start, with the hope of hitting all of the college guys in my top-60. If there is someone specific you want on here, please let me know @barstoolreags. All videos are courtesy of Synergy and the stats will come from Synergy and KenPom.
Jalen Brunson – Villanova
6’2”, 200 lbs, 21 years old
Projected: No. 26 (DraftExpress) No. 28 (NBADraft.net)
Comparison: Andre Miller/Jameer Nelson/Chris Duhon hybrid
Background: Jalen Brunson announced earlier today that he was signing with an agent and forgoing his senior year at Villanova. It was no surprise as he graduated in three years and then completed one of the best individual years we’ve seen. Brunson swept all the awards, except for KenPom Player of the Year (he finished .01 points behind Trae Young) to go with his second national title. Brunson was one of the most consistent players in college basketball during his three years as he was known for being one of the smartest players in the country. He entered as a top-25 recruit, playing alongside guys like Ryan Arcidiacono and Josh Hart as a freshman. During his sophomore year, you saw the potential really start to break out, especially during Big East play. He was arguably better than Hart who won Big East Player of the Year. The question coming into this year was whether that was because teams dared Brunson to beat them or was it him figuring things out. Well, clearly we got the answer to that one.
Strengths: There’s a whole lot to like about Brunson from the offensive side of the ball. He improved his 3-point shooting this year upping it from 38% to 40% from behind the arc and started to show more NBA-ready moves to get into the shot. The one that stuck out for me was in the Final Four against Devonte’ Graham. He had the ball at the top of the key and got Graham with a crossover into a stepback off the bounce. That’s the type of move he needs to continue to have at the NBA level and one that we didn’t see during his first year and a half or so at Nova. He had 161 possessions this year where he shot a jumper off the dribble. He ranked in the 92nd percentile nationally scoring 1.075 points per possession on those shots. That’s a stat that absolutely sticks out to me. Here’s the example of the shot against Kansas I’m talking about:
Watching him shoot off the dribble, something that sticks out is how good a job he does of a) getting a high release point, b) getting his feet set and c) staying within balance. At 6’2″ he has decent size, but he will have to go up against taller defenders at the next level. It’s important that he keeps that release point at the peak, something he does an excellent job of. When you watch the play above, watch how straight he gets on his jump and lands forward. That’s all body control and weight distribution, something that Brunson has always been excellent at. That’s part of what makes him so tough to defend is that you have to respect his jumper, but he creates space with his dribble to get you leaning then gets right into a shot. Here’s a still shot of his release point:
We talked all year about his ability to play in the post and how Villanova inverted its offense to that. Now, he’s not necessarily going to be able to post up at the next level like he did at the collegiate level, but there is a takeaway here. It was the different shots he hit out of that set. He didn’t always get to the rim for a layup. In fact, he often shot a step back, a semi-fade or a little drop step into a fade. Those are all shots he creates for himself in a 1v1 setting. That’s something he can take advantage of at the next level as we’ve seen guards like Mark Jackson use that backdown offense as a weapon. He has that in his arsenal and it’s something that he can do, even at the next level.
Another huge strength for Brunson? Playing in Villanova’s system has him ready for the NBA. What’s unique about Nova is the fact that it doesn’t run many sets. Good friend of the program Rob Dauster talked to coaches who scouted Nova and how there’s really just 4 sets or so that they run and the rest is all concept based. The idea of Nova’s offense is to draw a double team, make the pass and then hit the open shot. What they started to do though is run a lot of high ball screens, especially with the development of Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall. Even more important than that is the fact Brunson finished with NBA style finishes. What I mean by that is he wasn’t getting to the rim on all of these. He dribbled off the high ball screen 110 times. Out of those 110 sets, he took a jumper off the dribble 78 times, scoring 1.231 points per possession. This is the type of play that scouts will be looking at. He uses the brush screen to get Carrington looking for a second. From there he uses his crossover to create space and pull up from the free throw line. This is the exact type of shot he has to be able to hit at the next level.
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Weaknesses: The most glaring weakness for Brunson starts with his athleticism. He beats you with his intelligence on the court and not his athleticism. Because of that I question just how well he can finish at the rim at the next level. He did rank in the 84th percentile on finishes at the rim in non post-up sets this past year, but against NBA talent where you have a weakside guy rotating can he still get the ball up there quick enough? However, the more concern with the athleticism comes on the defensive side of the ball. The dirty secret this year was Brunson’s inability to stay in front of most guards and Nova hiding him a bit defensively. He was bailed out at times with guys like Mikal Bridges and Phil Booth being able to switch on all screens. In ISO sets, Brunson ranked in just the 18th percentile nationally. He gave up over 1 point per possession on ISO sets. Will he be able to defend NBA guys that want to ISO him on the wing?
Draft Stock/Projection: Brunson fits the mold for the perfect backup point guard and that’s where I give you the combo of Miller/Duhon/Nelson. He mimics some of their game as well as their career arc. He’s going to fall into the group with the Landry Shamet/Jevon Carter/Aaron Holiday/Devonte’ Graham/De’Anthony Melton/Anfernee Simons of late first round-early second round picks at point guard. I truly believe he’s someone who will play for 12 years, filling in on spot starts, but really playing 15-20 minutes per game as the backup point guard. You know what you’re getting with Brunson. He’s going to take care of the ball, he can gets others involved and he can shoot. I don’t think he has a high ceiling but his floor is also higher than everyone else in that group. I have him a little higher than most as I have him in my top-25 big board and thinks he falls somewhere in that early second round pending trades. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him be in the rotation from day one as he has that experience and will draw comparisons to the Malcolm Brogdon’s and Kyle Kuzma’s of the world in the ‘steal of the draft’ or ‘late pick that can step in right away’ type guy.