Important Trends to Watch from Teams in College Basketball
Each team in college basketball has a calling card, similar to the Wet and/or Sticky Bandits. The question though, and something I’m hoping to figure out through this blog and research, is just what is this calling card, how important of a trend is it and can a team win with such a thing. There’s no rhyme or reason to these teams besides ones that I have noticed through the year and decided to write about.
Marquette – Heavy 3-point action
This is one that has been talked about for the last year and a half or so, but really since Markus Howard decided to drop 52 on Providence last night. This team is a team that relies on the 3-point ball to win games. They are currently 11-4 and in those 4 losses have shot 35.2% from the 3-point line. In the 11 wins? 44.1% from the 3-point line. It’s pretty simple here as to what Marquette wants to do and needs to do be successful. They are ninth in the country in 3pt attempts per field goal attempts, shooting threes on 49% of all field goal attempts. So the question is, is this something that can be sustained? To me, Marquette will never be a national title contender living this way. Take a look since the 2001-02 season when KenPom became a thing. There has never been a national title winner in the top-25 in 3PA/FGA, with Nova being 31st in the country when they won it. In fact, if you take out Villanova, there are limited examples of successful programs or teams over the last 15 years. That’s why I’ve always said Marquette can compete with anyone, because a guy like Howard can drop 52 on anyone, but can also lose to anyone. Where do they go when they shoot 30% from the 3-point line in the NCAA Tournament? The only example of them doing such a thing this year came against American, not exactly a big time program. It’s worth noting teams are shooting more 3s than ever before, but also making more than ever before.
Purdue – Going Offense/Defense with bigs
This isn’t really a problem for me, but more of a trend to watch with how early Matt Painter decides to bring in Matt Haarms for Isaac Haas. It’s no surprise that Haas struggles defensively despite being an above average rim protector. Haarms is more agile while being an even better rim protector than Haas. Painter does have the risk of putting Haarms in too early and losing offensive possessions where he can dump the ball in the post if he wants. Rob Dauster brought up a good point that Purdue complements each other better this year with Haarms and Haas being different players while last year Haas and Swanigan had similar strengths/weaknesses. Painter didn’t have to mess with the lineup late in games because of that. This year he’s going to walk a somewhat fine line in terms of when to bring in Haarms and keep him in.
Virginia – Backcourt shooting
Right now what has made Virginia one of the 10 best teams in the country is the fact they have threats to score the ball to go with that ridiculous defense. You know that defense will be there all year, really as long as Tony Bennett is the head coach. However, Virginia has three options to beat you in Ty Jerome, Devon Hall and Kyle Guy. It’s not exactly the best example to use because they ended up losing to West Virginia, but that’s a game that Virginia is now capable of taking advantage of, something they didn’t exactly have in the past. This team is made to attack when breaking presses as all three guys can get out in transition and shoot. They are shooting a combined 45% from the 3-point line with all three over 40%. Even with those Anderson/Brogdon/Harris/Perrantes teams, they never had shooting like this.
Xavier – Getting to the line and making free throws
This is one of the more important stats to me, simply because if you take advantage of free throws you’re winning games. It’s as simple as that at the college level. I mean look at how the Florida State and Wake Forest games ended last night with both teams nearly blowing leads in the last minute because of missed free throws. Right now Xavier is one of the best in the country at getting to the line. Depending where you look they are 10th in free throw attempts/game, 17th in FTA/FGA and 10th in FTA/offensive play. More importantly they are 4th in free throw percentage, shooting 79% as a team. If Goodin/Macura/Bluiett stay 85% clip they are at, Xavier will simply continue to close out any close game. It’s been somewhat of their calling card this year in terms of falling behind early, but continuing to attack and cut into leads and then get to the free throw line. The way that they look to attack the rim, especially Macura and Goodin, fouls will continue to be called.
Michigan State – Sharing the ball
There is no one in basketball better at sharing the ball than Michigan State. They rank first in the country in assist rate and most of that is due to Cassius Winston, but also rather to each player starting to truly embrace their role on the team. I had a blog in December talking all about Michigan State’s defense and while that’s true, I think it’s vital to continue to look at them avoiding ISO ball. With as much talent as they have on the roster, it can be easy to fall into just taking your man off the dribble and getting yours. However, pretty much everyone is getting involved in making the extra pass leading to easy buckets. This team is a true national title contender and will stay just that as long as they continue this team ball – something that seems likely.
Kentucky – Bench production, especially from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Right now Kentucky’s best player is coming off the bench. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no doubt the best player on Kentucky and has been over the last 2+ weeks. Granted, he’s playing Manu-like minutes as a sixth starter, but what’s important about him coming off the bench is the fact that Calipari gets to make the first move in the coaching game. Thanks to Kentucky’s height and Gilgeous-Alexander’s length, you can bring him in for any of the five players on the floor. Kentucky has played Quade Green and Gilgeous-Alexander together quite a bit and you can slide Washington to the five spot if you want or Knox to the four spot. You can go small or big when you bring him in after the first 3-4 minutes. That makes the opposing coach have to make a decision with his rotation and having SGA come off the bench and be a threat to score now is a huge advantage for Kentucky.
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West Virginia – James Bolden being a threat offensively
The sophomore guard has been vital for West Virginia offensively due to his ability to shoot. He’s currently shooting 43% from the 3-point line while playing about 19 minutes per game. With Esa Ahmad coming back, we could see West Virginia being somewhat okay on offense in the halfcourt. Jevon Carter has continued to shoot the ball well at nearly 40% and Daxter Miles is a threat to score. Throw in Ahmad and Bolden and you now have four guys who can get buckets in a variety of ways but more importantly keep the lane open for Huggins’ motion offense and driving for Carter.
Cincinnati – Interior defense
Ever since the Xavier game, Cincinnati has looked like old Cincinnati – meaning they are going to defend the living hell out of you and make you work. This was supposed to be a team that beat you offensively, but with questions still looming at point guard – even more so with Cane Broome’s sprained ankle – this team is going back to the ways of old. They aren’t giving up buckets in the paint as they are the second best 2-point defensive team in the country. They are a decent 3-point defensive team, but what’s making them special is that they are challenging shots at the rim and then clearing defensive rebounds. There will be limited tests in the AAC for Cincinnati as the conference isn’t that strong yet again and will play just four top-100 offenses in conference play. So it’s worth keeping an eye on to see if they continue to smother weaker opponents and how they fair against the SMU’s and Wichita State’s.