Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle Collide Tonight As The Yankees And Red Sox Engage In Another Postseason War - Full Breakdown Of Their Wild Card Series
What more do you want? Tonight begins another battle in the never-ending war between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. We have before us a three game wild card series in the Bronx to decide who moves on to face the AL East division winning Tampa Bay Rays. There are a lot of storylines, strategies, and player availability questions to get into here as we barrel towards the 8:00 PM EST first pitch from Cam Schlittler. Let's dive in.
How'd we get here?
It's been an unorthodox season for both teams to get to this point. The Yankees lost Aaron Judge for four months as he dealt with a broken rib in a tricky place that impacted his swing and was tough to rehab. The heart of the summer saw the Yankees unable to score any runs. Like actually zero. With Bellinger missing time along the way as well, things got especially brutal. Their only path to victory had them winning games with two, at most three runs a game. Impressively enough, they stayed afloat well enough to comfortably clinch the number one Wild Card spot and earn home field advantage in this series. Maybe part of that is the weak American League, but Boone did more than a fine job to get them here. The main reason the Yankees are here is their starting pitching. A combination of Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Ryan Weathers and Will Warren gave the Yankees their best starting rotation in two decades. They never cracked once. Schlittler picked up where he left off last postseason and will win the AL Cy Young when it's time to hand out that hardware. His three variation fastball mix continues to give hitters all over the league massive issues. There's a little concern about workload with him and his stuff deteriorating a bit down the stretch as the game gets later, but overall you couldn't ask for anymore from this kid. He's as big time as it gets. He honestly doesn't feel real. When Fried was out there he was nails this season, but elbow issues called for multiple IL stints. As of right now he seems to be on the right side of that injury. Cole returned from Tommy John surgery and pitched to a 3.61 ERA over 127 innings. Pretty much best case scenario (besides Verlander) for a 36 year old coming off that injury in his first season back. He's definitely missing the swing and miss he's accustomed to, which scares you in a potential Game 3 this series, but if you have Gerrit Cole as your number 3 you're in a pretty good place. Carlos Rodon arguably could be that number 3 guy with the way he's pitched, but if you have him as your 4 it's hard to top. They have four aces.
The rotation carried them to this point, but the bullpen more than held their own, led by David Bednar's stellar performance as the lockdown closer they've so desperately needed over the years. Joining him in high leverage relief were two diamonds in the rough in Paul Blackburn and Brent Headrick. While it seemed like those guys were overused due to the low scoring, tight games in the summer, they came through in spades to help nail down big wins. The rest of the pen is a bit of a mystery, but we'll get to that.
As for Boston, they too were missing their star position player most of the year in Roman Anthony, as well as their bonafide ace in Garrett Crochet. Navigating an annoying torn ligament in his finger that refused to heal for the longest time, Roman was sidelined for over 100 games during the regular season. Luckily for Boston, Wilson Contreras came over in free agency as the consolation prize of their failed first base quest for Pete Alonso. Contreras put together the best season of his career, posting a .901 OPS and stepping up to become the heart and soul of the team. It wasn't the easiest of seasons for Wilson however, dealing with an array of emotions stemming from the tragic earthquake in his home country Venezuela as well as a series of rollercoaster, emotional moments in games during the year. There was a point where fans were booing this guy at home despite him being the best player on the team.
Like I said, things were far from straightforward for this team. Boston began the year 32-46, leading to Alex Cora's firing. Craig Breslow brought in Chad Tracy from the team's minor leagues to manage the team. Then July happened where they would lose just five times, revitalizing the season and the fanbase. That put them in position to make the postseason as the AL's 2nd wild card. While it feels fucking crazy to think they're here after that start to the year, this is a good team that I expected to make the postseason at the beginning of the year.
Similar to the Yankees, the Sox come into this game with a strength in the starting pitching department. In what could be the final season of his career, Sonny Gray pitched his ass off to the tune of a 2.72 ERA over the course of 169 IP and has earned himself the Game 2 start in this series. Payton Tolle took the leap and has risen to one of the better young pitchers in the game today. Ranger Suarez wasn't exactly nails in 2026, but he was good enough to be a high end middle of the rotation arm who you hope locks into his usual October monster self. Jake Bennett burst onto the season and gave the Sox some real depth in that rotation. He won't be starting in any of these games, but similar to Rodon he's ready to rock if anyone gets into early trouble.
Now to the questions and storylines surrounding the series
Is Aaron Judge playing?
It's been a really weird week for Aaron Judge. Just a few days after coming off the 60 day IL, Judge pulled his calf while playing in the outfield. There was some mystery about the grade of the strain and what exactly is impacting him here, but Judge has made it clear he's doing everything he can to be ready for this series. Yesterday he took live BP and did some other stuff, but he still hasn't run the bases. Because of that last part I can't see how he plays here, despite all of his quotes saying he really wants to. If he can't run what are we doing here? I don't think he's on the roster and there's an argument to be made that they're better off considering he'd be compromised and likely clog the DH spot, forcing Ben Rice to play the field.
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Update: Finished this blog and schedule just as they announced Judge is not on the roster. Guy can't run, he can't play. Sucks but hopefully they get deeper into the postseason and give him a real shot to play.
Contreras was hit on the hand on September 17th by Jakob Junis, the same guy who once broke Aaron Judge's wrist with a hit by pitch years ago. Contreras missed the next 8 games and last week said he was unable to swing a bat, putting his availability for this series in doubt. Then they clinched the playoff spot and he was out there popping bottles with said hand no problem. He returned to the lineup on the final day of regular season. I would have to imagine he's good to go here, but maybe he's not 100%?
Other injuries and returning players
This gets super confusing for the Yankees side. Giancarlo Stanton pulled his calf in Houston on April 24th. The injury was said to be minor and require the minimum stint on the IL. Well, he hasn't played since. The most recent re-aggravation during rehab where fell while trying to run the bases was thought to end his season, but now all of a sudden he's taking live ABs and running again. All signs point to Stanton being on the roster which is CRAZY. It seems like the extent of his availability will be as a pinch hitter which could come useful with the amount of left handed pitching Boston has to offer. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Trent Grisham left his September 4th game early with a pulled hamstring and hasn't played since. Grisham was in the midst of a brutal season for the Yankees and was playing so poorly that many in the fanbase had hoped Boone would pull the plug and give Spencer Jones serious run out in center. The injury made that decision for him and since Jones lit it up with his bat, becoming the guy a lot of talent evaluators thought he could never at this level. Now Grisham is ready to be activated which leaves Boone with an interesting decision. If I were him Trent would not be playing. More on Spencer in a bit.
Ryan Weathers ended up giving the Yankees vital innings while Fried, Cole, and Rodon were sidelined during parts of the season. With the help of pitching guru Matt Blake, Weathers adjusted his arsenal becoming sort of a junk ball pitcher, leaning heavily on his changeup. The results were incredible, but an elbow strain sidelined him for the final month. If the Yankees were healthy up front Weathers wasn't going to start anyways, so if he's able to be a bullpen arm for them from the left side that's extremely valuable. It seems like he'll be in play for this series which is huge.
On the Red Sox side their biggest returning player is Garrett Crochet. No, Crochet will not be starting any games, but he appears able to give them 1-2 innings out of the pen. What level he can give them in that role and how often is another question, but Crochet missed most of the season with a shoulder injury that became way more serious than originally anticipated. He definitely wants to be out there if the medical staff give him the okay. He has plenty of experience pitching out of the pen, granted not in some time, and given the injuries to Slaten and Guerrero, he could be a life savor for the Red Sox if he can help bridge the gap easier from the starting rotation to Chapman.
Boston will also be without Mickey Gasper for this series, which doesn't seem like a big deal, but his numbers down the stretch were outrageous, especially in August where I felt like he was hitting a homer every game I checked. Who knows how many at bats he would have actually gotten, but being a lefty I have to imagine he would have been a threat to visit the short porch in right.
Who plays 2nd and 3rd for the Yankees?
This is where things get confusing and troubling for New York. Jazz Chisholm lived on the IL in September which allowed Anthony Volpe to come back up and play second base. While the offensive numbers didn't jump off the page, he played perfectly solid defense and held his own. Jazz has struggled mightily against lefties all year in what was mostly a brutal contract season for him. Against a lefty in Tolle and potentially Suarez in Game 3, Boone will have a decision to make about Jazz being out there. Last postseason Jazz was held out of the lineup against Crochet. which did not sit well with him and his agent. Not like the Yankees should give a fuck about feelings here, it's just interesting which path they decide to go down. Jazz gives you by far the most potential, but he was truly that bad against lefties in 2026. Maybe he's due?
As for 3rd base, Ryan McMahon's bat has been invisible while his defense has declined. With Lombard taking over at short, Caballero has scooted over to his right and played a bunch of third down the stretch. You also have Amed Rosario here who is the best hitter of the three, but a far worse defender. Like I said, confusing and troubling. With the margin for error so small in these games, I lean having your best defender out there. I don't think I could stomach Rosario making a brutal error in these games. Against Tolle I'd have Caballero at 3rd and feel it out from there. Boone is going to pinch hit a ton of guys and has a bunch of different ways to sub in players. You might see Volpe at 3rd at one point if the game dictates it. For a guy who has not managed the postseason well in the past, this postseason puts a ton of pressure on the mind of Boonie. Never a good spot to be in.
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X Factors
I'm obviously going to shy away from star players like Roman and Bellinger here. I think for the Yankees, Spencer Jones could help make or break the series. His left on left success could cause issues for Tolle, Bennett, and Suarez. Sure it's only 59 plate appearances, but Jones posted a .389/.441/.667 slash line, good for a 1.107 OPS against lefties. He had multiple hits against Chris Sale earlier in the year. I don't think it's a fluke. The scary part about starting Jones is he's not the greatest defender in the world and will have lapses out there in center. Would I rather him out there over Grisham? No question because he at least can use his legs to get to a ball whereas Grisham was jogging to balls that would dunk in front of him.
I'll go Ceddanne Rafaela for Boston. He plays an elite CF, runs the bases well, and has proven to be a pretty clutch hitter of the years. If Contreras is compromised and Adley isn't dialed, they're going to need Ceddy to have his fingerprints all over these games, and he's perfectly capable of that.
Prediction
Listen, I'll pick the Yankees in three because that's what my heart is begging for so I can continue to find the will to live. Two would be wonderful, but it won't be that easy. While Yanks-Sox in the postseason is what it's all about, that doesn't mean I'm going to enjoy it. I've dreaded the possibility of these two meeting in a best of three wild card series for months and of course here we are. Fuck me. Any little mistake from either side can cost you the series. These best of three wild cards are fucking torture.
Tonight we get it going with Cam Schlittler facing Payton Tolle. The Yankees toyed with the idea of bumping Cam to Game 2, but decided against that and relied on common sense. While I was sort of warming up to the idea, you pitch your best guy in Game 1 and figure it out from there. It's helpful the Yankees have four guys capable of starting a Game 1, but Schlittler just put together one of the best pitching seasons in franchise history. He's the runaway Cy Young winner and deserves the ball. You'll hear all that noise today about Cam against the Sox fans. It seems like it's all destined to backfire, but to this point all Cam has done is have his way with this team.
Even starts where he doesn't have his best stuff he's been able to navigate trouble and get the job done. Need it again tonight because Tolle is a beast of his own and is built for a moment like this. His two starts against the Yankees this year were nearly flawless. He brings a different demeanor to the mound than Cam, as Schlittler wants you to die and tries to stay as locked in as possible. Tolle is a relaxed goof ball who has fun out there. Make no mistake about though, he's a demon.
If you want runs you came to the wrong series.
The war resumes tonight.
Sox roster here