A Tournament Blunder, A Big Week For Go Go Greys & Picks For Saturday At Churchill Downs - At The Post With Mut
Well, this sucked.
Thanks to a horse named Coach Bennett winning the finale last week at Parx, I qualified for Thursday's $120 NHC Qualifier on HorsePlayers. (I wrote about my Pennsylvania Derby Day Parx experience here)
I am not qualified for the NHC yet. Dave is double-qualified. Elio isn't qualified yet. And neither am I. One of my barriers to qualifying is the cost - these tournaments are not cheap. So when I win a 'feeder' for $15 and get a $120 ticket like I did last week, I need to take advantage of it. As you can see from the leaderboard above, I did not.
But I should have won the whole thing.
In the final minutes before the start of the tournament, I haphazardly decided to move off two of the horses I liked, opting for longer prices. In these tournaments, longshots are key, and I felt like I just didn't have enough 'prices' to win. In this format, you have to place all your picks before the start of the first race.
Both horses I moved off won.
Those two winners - one at 5/2 and the other at 9-1- would have put me at $119.12, and that would have been just enough to win.
Giphy Images.Just a really stupid move. I spent hours handicapping and didn't leave myself enough time to really go over my selections. You can't win these things when you're rushed.
For me, the issue in these tournaments is handicapping the horses and then getting the right mix of winners and prices. You need both.
Super frustrating. Why did I make those flips? What's the psychology to doing that?
So yeah, still not qualified. It's still September, so there's time. But I feel like this was a big-time blown opportunity.
Go Go Greys Stable Update
A big week ahead for the Go Go Greys Stable.
The big horse, Lovely Grey, is scheduled to make her return to the races in Thursday's Grade 3 Winter Memories. She was scheduled to run Sunday, but the wet weather washed out weekend racing at the newly renovated Belmont Park on Long Island.
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This is her first race since she took a nasty spill on Opening Day at Saratoga. She looked like she was about to make a huge move into the stretch before a horse in front of her clipped heels and fell. She came out okay and has trained steadily since mid-August, working well at Turfway.
This race is on the turf, and she won her first race on turf. Yes, her best races have come on synthetic, but she looked like she loved the surface at Saratoga and was about to show her ability in the stretch.
This will be a big class test - she's facing some very talented horses Thursday. The race is loaded, quite frankly. Chad Brown trains three, and they all look legit. Lovely Grey should be a big price in here, but she's going to take money because of Dave. She'll be a live longshot in this group. I expect jockey Dylan Davis will try and save ground and make one run, like she did at Saratoga before the spill.
It's Race 4 on Thursday, around 3:46 PM, part of an awesome card that features six graded stakes.
Selfishly, it could not have worked out any better for this bald blogger, as I'll already be in New York for the Red Sox & Yankees. Assuming a prime-time game, I'll be able to see Lovely Grey live. Plus, arguably the best Thursday race card in the history of New York racing. Sounds like Dave will be there, too. I'm guessing there'll be a lot of Barstool/Go Go Greys fans in the building. Can't wait.
Before that race Thursday, Miss Watermelon makes the trip to Erie, PA, and Presque Isle Downs to race in an MSW race on their synthetic surface.
Miss Watermelon got bumped at the start last time at Saratoga and appeared to tire late. That track also favored speed, and once she got bumped, she didn't show much. This will be her first start on synthetic, but her half-sister, Heart, won twice over it, so the breeding is there.
On paper, her speed figures are much better than most of this field. But how she handles a new surface is a big question. She's 3-1 on the morning line, but I bet she's the heavy favorite given the small betting pools and Dave's popularity. She can win this, but she'll be a super short price. Note that Go Go Greys are 1-for-1 in Pennsylvania, with Wondergirl Carly winning last fall at Parx 👀👀
Safe trips for both GGG runners this week.
Envision ran last week at Belmont - Dave bought into this gelding with LNJ Foxwoods. He flashed speed and faded against some talented older horses.
As for the rest of the stable:
Boston Grey is working steadily at Monmouth. Naughty Nancy logged her first work since her 5th-place debut at Saratoga - she's also at Monmouth. Drake Grey is working at Turfway. Mr. Popover, too. Ronna's Sizzler is working at Churchill.
And there are more coming. Go Go Greys acquired eight more horses at the Keeneland sales these past few weeks. The stable now sits at close to 40 horses and 2 broodmares. Wild.
On three of those Keeneland purchases, Dave is partnering with his friend Josh Isner of Delta Squad Racing. They own one other horse together, Grey Ryder, named after the great Rico Bosco. I look forward to talking to both of them about this partnership - Dave got Josh into the game but kicked him out of Go Go Greys, I think because Dave said he was "a lot."
But they must have come to some agreement because they went in on three horses together. Josh was a guest on TDN's podcast this week, and his energy was apparent. He also shit on Red Sox owners at the end.
It was a very good listen. Hope to see Josh at the Breeders' Cup next month. Am I going to the Breeders' Cup? Great question. I hope so.
DraftKings Racing Race Day
Not sure about the Breeders' Cup, but I know I'll be betting on Churchill later today on DraftKings Racing. They have a Track Bet Bonus @ Churchill Downs and Santa Anita. They have a Saturday Night Racing Bonus. And they have a Featured Race –Lukas Classic @ Churchill Downs.
Great stuff. Make sure you OPT IN AT THE OFFERS/REWARDS TAB to get involved.
Some spot plays for the people. 🏇🏻🏇🏻🏇🏻
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5
#8 GUNS FOR GLORY
Ran into a very good horse in debut, and Asmussen has good numbers in start #2
Win/Place #8
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8
#5 STIMULATE
Will be a short price but will be tough here. Single for me in the late Pick 4 / Pick 5.
Exacta 5-3
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 9
#6 COAL BATTLE
Taking a shot here. There is a TON of speed on paper and he's a closer who needs a set-up. I think he might get one today at 10-1 or so
Win/place #6
Exacta box 6,7,8
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 - The Lukas Classic
#7 CHUNK OF GOLD
Horse that Dave tried to buy looks very tough here. Not betting, but using heavily in the Late Pick 4/5 - has a pace advantage.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 11
#10 SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP
Will use this one for sure in the Pick 4 and Pick 5, but some others, too. I'd also want 2,3,4,6,8,9 at some level. I'm okay spreading here.
Win/place #11
Good luck if you're playing today. Safe trips for all.
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