Can The Rangers Finally Snap Their Streak Of Single-Digit Draft Pick Failures?

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Lottery luck aside, the Rangers have an inconceivable track record of single-digit draft pick failures. While there’s still a bit of hope left for Lafreniere (1OA 2020) after a strong second half, the rest were proven whiffs real quick. They bailed on a disappointing Kakko (2OA 2019) at 23. Kravtsov (9OA 2018) & Andersson (7OA 2017) played 174 combined NHL games with 13 total goals and haven’t been NHLers for 3+ seasons. Going further back, Al Montoya (6OA 2004) & Pavel Brendl (4OA 1999) didn’t play a single game for the Blueshirts while Jamie Lundmark (9OA 1999) racked up a paltry 11 goals in 114 Rangers contests before being dumped to Arizona. Gross.

So, after getting jumped by Toronto & San Jose at yesterday’s ping pong ball extravaganza, GM Chris Drury will have a crack at breaking the streak with the 5th overall pick next month. Now let me preface the rest of this blog by saying I’m not a scout. I’m not breaking down prospect tape. I’m forming my opinions from the opinions of others deemed to be “prospect guys” & who I think would best benefit the Blueshirts in that 5th slot. There won’t be any groundbreaking prospect insight here, just my thoughts based on following what’s been publicly available for the last 6 months or so. With all that being said, here goes…

I think there’s a fairly distinct top 4. McKenna and Stenberg are the two top talents. Chase Reid is the top d-man (with guys like Carels & Verhoeff in the mix) and Caleb Malhotra’s stock has skyrocketed as the best available center. While there’s still plenty of talent after these names, I want one of them landing on Broadway. Falling two spots makes that unlikely but not impossible. McKenna and Stenberg aren’t happening, but Reid & Malhotra could – Reid being the most likely. Whether or not you agree he’s the top defender in the draft class, Reid is the guy who fits the Rangers best for one sole reason. This organization needs elite talent with play-driving ability & speed in the worst way, and all reports point to Reid having the most game-breaking potential among the top tier blueliners.

I’m not concerned with the right-shot MSU commit being blocked by Fox. Most defensemen take a couple years to fully develop & are ready to successfully handle significant responsibility. Look no further than fellow American Jake Sanderson who didn’t truly break out until 4 years after he was drafted 5th overall in 2020. Reid's ascension should line up well with the end of Fox’s contract in the summer of 2029. He wouldn't have to be immediately thrown into the fire whenever he’s NHL-ready and, if he ends up everything scouts think he could be, the opportunity could open up for him organically. They didn’t get any lottery luck, but a little luck with the picks ahead of them could make Reid a reality for New York.

There’s no doubt Toronto will snag Gavin McKenna at #1. Don’t need to delve into that any further.

The Sharks jumping up to #2 is interesting. A lot of people out there are projecting Reid here which certainly makes sense in terms of fit – but taking best player available opens up a lot of options. With Stenberg as the pick, they’ll have an entry-level contract coming in to make a guy like William Eklund & his 3-year/$5.6M expendable and attractive to acquire a more established young defender. Hypothetically speaking, why not Eklund for Byram? Byram’s got just a year left at $6.25M before he hits free agency to ink a monster ticket on a squad where he finally won’t be stifled behind guys like Dahlin or Makar. San Jose seems like a perfect fit while Buffalo gets a top-tier talented young forward playing his next three seasons under a tag that can easily turn into a bargain. The Sabres can’t afford to keep Byram anyway, especially if they have plans of locking up Alex Tuch. Point is, yeah, Reid may be the better fit with tunnel vision but it doesn’t take a lot of creativity to see there’s no reason for Grier to overthink things. Take Stenberg then wheel & deal for a blueliner ready to step in immediately.

Vancouver at #3 is almost as easy to predict as Toronto up top. Even taking out the cute storyline of Caleb Malhotra’s pops Manny skating for the Canucks when he was a toddler & now being the head coach of the Canucks’ AHL affiliate, the kid rising up draft rankings everywhere is still the perfect fit for a squad starved for talent up the middle. If the Sharks pass on Stenberg then maybe they pivot away from Malhotra, but even then I’d say it’s a coin flip.

What it all boils down to is what the Blackhawks do at #4. In a perfect world for them, Stenberg inexplicably falls in their laps after the draft starts McKenna/Reid/Malhotra. That’s bad news for the Rangers. The only way this draft shapes up as good news is if Stenberg goes top-3 & the Hawks are in love with Carson Carels. The left-shot defender seems to make a lot of sense for them. They’re invested on the right side with youngsters Levshunov & Rinzel. Korchinski just wrapped up his ELC still unable to hang onto a consistent roster spot on the left side and there’s no one behind him prospect-wise. After Vlasic there’s nothing but opportunity for the well-rounded, physical, straight-line Carels.

If the first three end up McKenna/Reid/Stenberg then it’s highly possible Chicago either takes Malhotra there or swings a deal to trade back with someone who wants him. I’m sure there’d be multiple teams making offers, but the Blueshirts aren’t in a position to punt additional assets just to jump a single spot & swat away anyone trying to leapfrog them. If Carels goes #4 in this scenario though I’m happy to grab Malhotra at #5.

The most likely scenario though is that it’s all forwards through the first three - McKenna/Stenberg/Malhotra. This brings us back to the Blackhawks and Carels. Are they comfortable with the growth of Levshunov as their back-end offensive catalyst? Are they equally comfortable with Rinzel as a top-four staple? If so then Carels makes more sense than a potentially redundant Reid. Or maybe they simply prefer the makeup of a safer, north-south defender with more bang to his game. If Chicago is where Carels calls home, the dynamic Chase Reid should be there to give Rangers fans as big an infusion of hope as they could ask for.

Whether or not he (or anyone) can actually break the Blueshirts run of single-digit busts is solely up to the hockey gods.