Sway And Pray: Playing With House Money And Ballsy Swagger, The Bruins Will Upset Buffalo Thanks To Their Elite Goalie

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Starting Sunday night at 7:30 in Buffalo, the Bruins will square off with their old Adams Division rival Sabres in the playoffs for the first time in 16 years; it's the longest playoff drought between the two squads since Buffalo entered the league in the '70-'71 season. The Bs beat the Swords 4-2 in the 2010 first round (Miro!) before pulling a Yankees-level choke-job vs. Philly.

The Sabres had a Lazarus-like season, going on a historic tear to vault to the top of the Atlantic Division and snagging the East's #2 seed. The team went 18-4-3 after the Olympic break after going 21-5-2 in their 28 games preceding the three-week break. Finally, after countless fits and starts and coaches and GMs and Cadillac Margaritas and fan meltdowns and 14 years, the Buffalo Sabres were back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The two-headed crease monster of Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was a huge reason for the sick heater they went on. But Lyon has been injured so UPL should start Game 1 with rookie Colten Ellis as back-up if Lyon is still out. But these Sabres are no one-trick pony. Led by point-per-game sniper Tage Thompson (40-41--81 in 81) and Alex Tuch (33-33--66 in 79), ten forwards have double-digit goals as do three D-men (Rasmus Dahlin aka Swedish Pronger led that way with 19-55-74 in 77) and just four teams averaged more than Buffalo's 3.45 goals for per game. 

Bill Wippert. Getty Images.

After the workhorse Dahlin, Bo Byram, Owen Power, and Mattias Samuelsson, coming off a career year, round out a pretty solid Top Four for a gigantic D-corps and head coach Lindy Ruff has plenty of options for his bottom pair. Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, and Jack Quinn are all 20+ goal-scorers while Zach Benson, Ryan McLeod, Josh Norris, and Peyton Krebs fill out a balanced attack. 

Despite the up front artillery, 18 teams were ahead of their 19.5% power play. However their 4th overall 81.9% penalty kill was a strength and only Carolina had more than their 11 short-handed goals. Buffalo's 2.93 goals against per game came in 10th overall. The Sabres lead the Bs in most team stats and finished with nine more points so it's easy to see whey they're the series favorite (BUF is -175, BOS is +145).

Most pundits aren't going to give the Bruins much of a chance in this series and it's doubtful any of them had the Bruins even making the playoffs. The 'under the hood' nerds are predicting the bottom to fall out for the Bruins any day now and that the only reason they're in this position is because of Swayman (and, I would argue, Korpisalo). Yet buoyed by one of the league's brightest superstars, a career year from their #1 defenseman, and a likely Vezina finalist, the Bruins made up for a lack of overall elite skill with heart, balls, toughness, effort, and a complete buy-in of what new head coach Marco Sturm was preaching to grab the first Wild Card. And they also have guys who can put the puck in the net with nine forwards tallying at least 12 goals.

David Pastrnak hit the 100-point mark for the fourth straight season (29-71--100 in 77). Morgan Geekie set triple career-highs with 39-29--68 in 81. Pavel Zacha scored 30 goals for the first time while also setting a personal high for points (30-35--65 in 78). Viktor Arvidsson proved to be a huge pick-up by the front office, putting up 25-29--54 in 69. Elias Lindholm and Fraser Minten each potted 17; Casey Mittelstadt and Marat Khusnutdinov had 15 apiece; and Mark Kastelic also reached a trio of new highs with 12-10--22 in 82.

On the back-end, Charlie McAvoy simultaneously had his most painful and most fruitful NHL season. Despite getting treated like the Black Knight of Monty Python fame, the ninth-year defenseman had his strongest season as a Bruin, achieving career-bests in assists and points (11-50--61 in 69) and taking on a bigger leadership role. His 24:23 time on ice per game was 15th overall. Hampus Lindholm found his groove and has been playing smart, efficient hockey that solidifies the Top Four on D. Jonathan Aspirot has slotted in nicely alongside Chucky Mac on the top pair. 

After watching Nikita Zadorov in the playoffs for the Canucks two years ago, he was at the top of my UFA wish list because he was the exact type of face-punching, crease-clearing bulldog every team needs in the playoffs. The Bs ended up signing him to a six-year/$30M deal. Does he like penalties? Apparently. But I'm fine with a hard-nosed bruiser this time of year. Riverboat gambler Mason Lohrei might give us the occasional heart attack but I can see him having a big offensive series. Andrew Peeke rounds out pretty solid though not elite D-corps.

Four essential areas where the Bs have a decided advantage are at the dot, on the man-advantage, team toughness, and, most significantly, in the crease. Boston had the league's 4th best face-off % at 53.1. Buffalo's? Dead last at 45.9. If that discrepancy held over the course of a six or seven game series, then it would certainly catch up with the Sabres.

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The Bs had the ninth best power-play, converting at a 23.4% clip. But they'll need to clean up their shitty 77% penalty-killing, better than only eight other teams, as well as cutting down on shorties given up (only three teams gave up more than the nine that the Bs did). The Bruins managed just two short-handed goals all season while the Sabres surrendered six.

Of course the best way to do all that is, no doy, stay out of the goddamn penalty box. Play tough but not stupid. If you can bully them, bully them. The Bruins need to play hard to be successful but they'll also need to be much more disciplined than they were in the regular season, where only Coop's goons in Tampa had more PIM. They'll also need to tidy up the turnovers that plagued them during the season (though I think many of the recent ones were due to fatigue from a crazily condensed post-Olympics schedule). 

But where this series is going to swing the Bruins way is in the crease. While Lyon and UPL both had stellar runs to catapult the Sabres to the top of the Wales, Jeremy Swayman was the NHL's best goalie when the league resumed after the Olympics. Every game he played, it seemed like he was making a handful of game-swinging saves. Whether he was maintaining a lead or keeping the Bs within a goal or two, there were countless times this season when the Bruins absolutely, positively needed a save from Swayman and he delivered, time and time again. And that's why the Bruins are back in the playoffs. Also, in 18 playoff starts, Swayman is 9-10 with a 2.38 and .922---Buffalo's three goalies have combined for three playoff starts, all by Lyon with the '23 Panthers with a 3.63 and .888. I also have to give props to Joonas Korpisalo as he was the perfect #2 guy and stole his share of games (his tough start didn't help his numbers but his impact was noticeable).

This is obviously Sturm's first rodeo but he's got a terrific command of his team and they genuinely love playing for the guy. And the same goes for Lindy Ruff on the other bench, who gets the advantage here by dint of coaching 24 more seasons than Sturm. Even with the experience gap, it should be a good chess match and I'm expecting two or three games to go OT.

And of course, there's the X-factor. James Hagens. The BC product played the last two regular season games and didn't look at all out of place. His board work on the forecheck led to his first NHL point, a soccer-style assist. He'll be in the lineup for Game 1 and is expected to be on the second power play unit. Buffalo only has college film on Hagens and has never faced him before, so the 19-year-old just may be able to catch his opponent off guard. I would't be surprised if he has a 2-3--5 series.

But no matter what happens, this season has already been a gift from the guys in the locker room to the Black and Gold fans around the globe. Season previews?

The most pessimistic of fans were ordering their Gavin McKenna jerseys. The average fan was anticipating a transition year after a pretty solid run and just hoping for a competitive team. And some others read the tea leaves a bit.

If the 2025-26 Boston Bruins make the playoffs, Jeremy Swayman will be the reason why. After a shit season that started shitty because the front office decided to play "Let's Roll Back The Clock And Pretend We're Harry Sinden" instead of nipping an eventuality in the bud, the Bruins #1 goalie is going to have, in the words of the great Jack Edwards, a bee in his bonnet. 

With a full camp and something to prove after signing his monster deal but then pissing down his leg a bit, expect a Vezina-caliber effort from the Alaskan goaltender. Him and Pasta are gonna carry this team as far as they can go. Sway is the way.

I was psyched when Marco Sturm was hired to take over the Bruins bench. He's had a pretty impressive rise up the coaching ranks; after a stinit as Germany's National Team head coach, the friendly German was an L.A. assistant for four years before becoming head coach of the AHL affiliate Ontario Reign for three seasons. He genuinely seems like the right guy at the right time and I think the Bruins will surprise a few folks.

None of the computations or projections or models have the Bs doing anything this year.

But between the hair Swayman will have across his ass to Sturm's injection of enthusiasm and camaraderie and its ripple effects in the locker room, I think the Bruins will be in contention for a playoff spot down to the wire and may just snag one. This front office knows it's in a bit of a holding pattern for a season or so but that it also has to ice a competitive squad. 

To be sure, this isn't some tank squad hoping to win BINGO to land Gavin McKenna. It's a bit of a pot-luck dinner of a roster. Which is appropriate because a lot of these guys are hungry for the chance to show that the NHL is where they belong. 

BRUINS IN SIX.

Go Bs!

Some classic moments from prior clashes…

Brad Park in OT of Game 7 in 1983.

Oatesy off the draw to win Game 2 of the First Round in 1992.

Rick Jeanneret's epic "May Day!" call in 1993 when the Sabres punted the Bs into hockey hell for a few years.

Miroslav Satan bedeviling his his former squad with the Game 4 double-OTGWG in 2010.

Then he notches the eventual series-clincher (he also assisted on the Game 2 game-winner).