The Richest Horse Race In America - The Breeders' Cup Classic - Is Next Week. There's A Horse That's Already Creating A Buzz And He Probably Has No Shot To Win The Race.
We are just nine days away from two of the best days of the entire year to bet on horses, the Breeders' Cup.
Held this year on Friday, October 31, and Saturday, November 1 at Del Mar Race Course in California, it provides two days of full fields of some of the best horses in training competing for the richest purses in the sport. Because there are so many horses entered and so much money being bet on these 'Championship' races, the Breeders Cup usually provides us bettors with the chance to make a big score or two…fingers crossed.
But still over a week away from the racing, I'm here to tell you there's a horse that you should not bet on because he's not entered to try and win the race.
Contrary Thinking was pre-entered in the biggest race of Breeders' Cup Weekend, the Breeders' Cup Classic - most handicappers (including me) will tell you he has no chance to win, again, because he's not being entered to win the race.
His part-owner, Peter Brandt, is also the part-owner of another horse entered in the Classic and has a real chance to win, Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone is considered a 'closer' and lags behind the pack. The faster the race early, the better his chances of winning, and Contrary Thinking is entered to establish that fast pace for his stablemate.
He was entered in the Whitney Handicap with that goal in mind, and Sierra Leone won that race, with Contrary Thinking finishing last.
They tried the same tactics in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and a month later, Sierra Leone finished second, after facing some trouble early in the race.
They'll try it one more time here. Me? I have no problem with the connections entering a rabbit. It has been part of racing strategy for over 100 years, dating back to the early days of racing in Europe. Until the rules prohibit it, go for it. There are folks on the Internet that seem angered by it.
Another guy who doesn't seem thrilled is Dave's friend and fellow horse owner Mike Repole. Repole has two horses in the Classic - Mindframe and Fierceness - and took to social media to talk rabbits on Wednesday, sarcastically calling Contrary Thinking the "emotional support rabbit" for Sierra Leone.
If Repole had a deep closer, he might enter a rabbit, too. I like Repole a lot, and I'm glad he's having a good time with this. And he makes an interesting point when he talks bout protecting the bettors in this case.
"The horse would not be in this race to compete. What happens to the horseplayers in the betting pools??? Can you at least couple him??? Can he run for purse money only so we don’t f$&k over the bettors?"
I like the idea of letting the horse run, but only for purse money, meaning you can't bet on him. Good call, Mike. But since I'm not sure how the Breeders' Cup will handle this, I'm writing this blog.
Assuming Contrary Thinking runs in this race, I don't think people should be betting on him to win. That will be evident to most experienced horseplayers, but potentially not to new ones. He is not of the same caliber as the other horses in the field, and he's entered in this race solely to do the dirty work for the owner's other horse.
But that dirty work should also help some other horses in this race, like the three-year-old super horse, Sovereignty. And a horse coming from Japan, Forever Young. Maybe even Sovereignty's big 2025 rival, Journalism. And Fierceness has shown he can win from off the pace. On paper, it's a fantastic race, even with the rabbit entered for the 2024 Classic winner, Sierra Leone.
I'm looking forward to writing about it and discussing it here over the next week.
Making public picks for races is fun. As a bettor, you can fade or follow along. I'll probably give out plenty of losers on Breeders' Cup Weekend, but I feel pretty good about this opinion.
Don't bet your hard-earned money on the rabbit.
