Who To Buy, Who To Sell: Preseason AP Poll Observations
Talking season is just about over, folks. We have the Preseason AP Top 25 hot off the presses and it's almost time to go play ball. I compiled some thoughts on the season's inaugural poll which will ultimately mean nothing, but it's all we have for these last few days until we kick things off.
Too High
South Carolina
I understand that LaNorris Sellers is awesome. Honestly, I'd probably take him to be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft right now. But I want to ask everyone who ranked South Carolina this highly if they know how much the Gamecocks lost defensively and if they've taken a look at their schedule.
Virginia Tech on a neutral field, at Missouri, at LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Clemson. This could be a five-loss team without even being bad.
Alabama
It's often said that the biggest jump for a player is made from his first to his second year, and I guess a lot of people are counting on that happening for Kalen DeBoer, because I don't see what some seem to.
We still don't know who's going to play quarterback, but it seems like it's going to be Ty Simpson, who has been uninspiring in the times we've seen him. Pairing DeBoer back with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should help some and the defense returns nearly everybody, but you're really counting on someone stepping up at quarterback.
Miami
Someone tell me why we're buying Mario Cristobal and Carson Beck coming off an arm injury. Miami had Cam Ward playing out of his mind last year and still found a way to lose to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. The Hurricanes do avoid Clemson and Tech in ACC play this season and their two toughest games are in non-conference play, so maybe they find themselves in the ACC Championship Game even with a couple losses. But I think if this team is going to compete for championships, it is going to have to lean on a great offensive line and run the football.
Michigan
I have to say Michigan is ranked too high by default, because the Wolverines lost five games last season and we have no idea what Bryce Underwood is going to look like as a true freshman. But conversely, you could also say Michigan won eight games while not being able to complete a forward pass, so if Underwood is anything like what he's been hyped up to be, this team could be back competing on a national scale. We just don't know yet.
If the Wolverines somehow make it out of Norman, Oklahoma, with a win in Week 2, the rest of the schedule sets up very nicely.
Too Low
Texas A&M
I haven't really seen many people talking about the fact that Texas A&M was 8-2 through 10 games last season and had a legitimate shot to not only make the College Football Playoff, but play for an SEC championship. Things didn't go as planned to end the season, but Marcel Reed enters 2025 having received valuable experience as a starting quarterback and the Aggies have 15 starters back.
The schedule isn't easy, but I could definitely see A&M playing for a spot in Atlanta when it squares off with the Longhorns at the end of the season — and I'm not writing off a win in South Bend, either.
Boise State
I don't know how high I think Boise State should be necessarily, but many people may be surprised when they look up in November and the Broncos are 9-1 again. Obviously, replacing Ashton Jeanty is going to be difficult, but the Broncos return 67 percent of their production — 13th nationally — and QB Maddux Madsen is the preseason Mountain West Player of the Year. This team is still going to be very good and the Broncos going to Notre Dame on October 4 may be the most underrated game of the year.
Ole Miss
I just have a feeling Lane Kiffin is going to put things together this year. Austin Simmons takes over at quarterback and many people seem to really like his upside. If the Rebels play defense anything like what they did last year, this should be a great team again. They'd have been in the Playoff in 2024 if they simply didn't piss down their legs against Kentucky.
Unranked Teams To Crash the Party
Georgia Tech
If you want to see what a favorable schedule looks like, go check out Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will probably be favored in 10 of their 12 games and the other two — against Clemson and Georgia — are in Atlanta. Losing Eric Singleton to the transfer portal hurts, but Tech brings back the dynamic backfield attack of QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes in addition to Malik Rutherford on the outside and a ton of returning defensive production.
Louisville
If I had to pick a Power Four team outside the top 15 or so to make the CFP, I think I'd go with Louisville. Miller Moss is in a new environment after showing some very promising flashes at USC and the Cardinals bring back two running backs in Isaac Brown and Duke Watson who combined for more than 1,700 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns last season.
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This is a team that also beat Clemson and lost to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami by just a touchdown each last season. Keep an eye on the Cardinals.
Top Team That Could Have Trouble
Oregon
To be clear, I am not picking Oregon to be bad. But out of the top group of teams, if you had to pick one who could have things go off the rails, the Ducks are interesting. Dillon Gabriel hands the reins to Dante Moore at quarterback, whose numbers as UCLA's starter during his freshman season were concerning to put it mildly. Dan Lanning's squad also lost leading rusher Jordan James and its top three receivers in Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and Tez Johnson.
I think the Ducks will be fine this year and the schedule isn't very difficult even if they have some growing pains, but if you're looking for a team with question marks where some things could possibly go wrong, it might be this one.
Playoff Prediction
1. Texas (SEC champion)
2. Penn State (Big Ten champion)
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Clemson (ACC champion)
8. Arizona State (Big 12 champion)
9. Texas A&M
10. Boise State (Mountain West champion)
11. Louisville
12. Ole Miss