Surprises, Disappointments, And Outlook For Every MLB Team At The All Star Break: AL Edition
It's time for Major League Baseball's stretch run. The All Star break is over and now we're barreling ahead full speed towards the trade deadline. It's still tough to tell right now which teams will truly be sellers, but we have an idea that Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and probably Arizona will be active in supplying contenders with pieces. This is where the fun begins.
I wanted to write a little something on each team to get you up to speed in the event you haven't been locked in. Nothing too in depth, but just enough of a taste that you're in a good spot to lock in for the rest of the way. Every team has less than 70 games left on their schedule with the AL East, NL East, and NL Central very much up for grabs. The other divisions not so much, but the wildcard races are at least 6 deep in each league. Let's sort it out and see where everyone is at.
AL East
Toronto Blue Jays (55-41)
The Jays have been one of the bigger surprises in baseball of late as they've taken advantage of a prolonged Yankees slump to leapfrog into the division lead. It feels like at any moment the wheels will fall off as does every Jays team of late, but to their credit they've held strong to this point.
Surprise: What's surprising is that Vladdy Jr. isn't having anywhere close to an MVP season while this is happening. What's changed is depth with the likes of Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes lengthening the lineup. George Springer not being an All-Star felt criminal. Bo Bichette becoming an MLB player again certainly helps Toronto's cause. They're a fun team right this second, but I'm curious to see where they're at after their immediate schedule to begin the 2nd half against the Giants, Yankees, and Tigers. They'll know what kind of team they have when the deadline arrives.
Disappointment: You could walk into a bank today, rob the place blind, and you still wouldn't be committing as much theft as Anthony Santander has with the Jays in 2024. He's been on the IL since May 30th with shoulder issues, but before that he amounted a -0.9 WAR and a dismal 60 OPS+. In the offseason he signed a 5 year, $92M contract and boy was that a mistake.
New York Yankees (53-43)
Things looked great for the Yankees through June 12th when they stood 42-25 and had a comfortable lead in the division. Hell, there were even some crazy thoughts flying around that they were BETTER without Juan Soto. Then the annual Aaron Boone June Swoon swept through the clubhouse like a fucking plague. Since then they've gone 11-18 and fallen into 2nd place with Boston very much breathing down their neck. Still, the offense has been an overwhelming positive. Aaron Judge is a superhuman and has somehow gotten better. It'll be a dog fight with Cal Raleigh for the rest of the summer to see if he can nab his first ever triple crown. Cody Bellinger has turned into a delight of an acquisition after a slow start and become one of the best acquisitions Brian Cashman has ever made. Jasson Dominguez really came on as we headed into the break, asserting himself into the leadoff spot. They need major help at the deadline at 3rd, SP, and RP. We'll see how aggressive Cashman is.
Surprise: It has to be Carlos Rodon. With Gerrit Cole done for the year someone had to really step up in the Yankees rotation if this year was going to be worth a damn. After a objectively bad first two seasons in New York, Rodon has delivered one helluva year so far earning himself an All-Star spot. His 3.08 ERA in 119.2 IP paired with a 3.58 FIP has helped stabilize this rotation. Clarke Schmidt's season ending surgery delivered another blow to the team, but without Rodon's efforts this season would be in the shitter given how thin they are. Go add a legit starter at the deadline and you can figure it out from there.
Disappointment: Year 3 for Anthony Volpe was seen as his time to break out and become a pivotal piece of this team, especially when you see what he did in October with a slash of .286/400/408. The hope was he found something there and could bring it into 2025. Instead of taking a leap, the shortstop has regressed in all facets of his game. The defense this year has been inexcusable.
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Funny enough Boone blamed Jazz on this play despite Volpe playing back on the ball and not attacking. The fact of the matter is that Volpe has been a negative for the team in 2025. WAR is mostly a good stat, but it should never be an end all be all. A good example is that Volpe has a 1.3 WAR at the moment. If you've watched him this season there's no way you can tell me he's better than a replacement level player. Right now he's playing the game worthy of a minor league demotion, the Yankees just don't have another SS ready to plug in so he's the guy. It's bad. I think there's a difficult conversation coming in the offseason unless things change drastically.
Boston Red Sox (53-45)
It took them long enough, but the Red Sox are here. Riding high into the break on a 10 game winning streak, this young Sox team is humming,
After a slow start Roman Anthony has really come into his own posting a .965 OPS since June 28th. This man will terrorize me for the next 20 years of my life, or until John Henry decides his contract is too big and they trade him for a bag of balls. The Garrett Crochet has been a home run, with the lefty becoming the true heir to Chris Sale as a bonafide ace of the staff. We'll see how they monitor his innings as he soars past his career high in a few starts. If he keeps it up he very well could be the AL Cy Young. The Sox have the hardest schedule in baseball remaining, with a brutal stretch beginning today in Chicago, but if they keep up their level of play and confidence that they went into the break with I think they're a playoff team, the same way I did at the start of the season.
Surprise: The Red Sox trading Devers actually seems to have unlocked this team. Maybe the ol' addition by subtraction of trading the disgruntled 3rd baseman turned DH was the key to unlocking the roster? Right now Craig Breslow looks like a genius. Honorable mention: Brayan Bello has finally turned into the starting pitcher they dreamed of. No longer scared of the daylight or pitching into the 6th inning, Bello has helped give this rotation some much needed stability after Crochet.
Disappointment: I wanted to say Kristian Campbell here, but I don't think that's fair to a rookie who was asked to move around the diamond defensively as much as he was early on. My answer is Walker Buehler. What a disaster of a 2025 it's been so far for him. A 6.12 ERA to go with a 5.95 FIP and 17 surrendered homers in 78 innings is a nightmare concoction. There's not much that shows a positive bounce back is on the horizon.
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At least it's a mutual option for 2026 and they can tell him to fuck off for $3M.
Tampa Bay Rays (50-47)
Once again the Rays have become this pesky group that has no business being in contention. Things faded a bit as they headed into the break, but them being above .500 is just classic Rays bullshit.
Surprise: Don't pick him for a HR derby in the future, but Jonathan Aranda's season at first has given the lineup some life as he holds an .892 OPS through 91 games played. You expected Junior Caminero to become an impact guy, but Aranda out-playing him has been stunning. Imagine if this lineup had Wander Franco too?
Disappointment: I'm not sure there's anything to really be disappointed about when you look at the roster here. I'm gonna just say the fact that Manfred said all home playoff games for Tampa will in fact be played at George M. Steinbrenner Field (the Yankees spring training complex). Could you imagine how awful that would be if a postseason series is there? Not even the fact that there's only a 11k capacity in the building, but the weather that time of the year could be a nightmare for scheduling. The foul poles also aren't high enough to accurately judge homers down the line. Yes this robbed Aaron Judge of a dinger earlier in the year and I still haven't gotten over it.
Baltimore Orioles (43-52)
One of the best stories in baseball this year has been the demise of the Orioles. No fanbase has gotten cockier without winning a single postseason game than the O's. The arrogance of their front office to go into this season with their dogshit starting rotation has resulted in a travesty of a season. If they're smart they'll sell off a bunch of pieces like Felix Bautista, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Sugano, Kremer, Eflin, etc.
Surprise: The new owner of the team gave himself a bobblehead day despite doing nothing to improve the team.
Disappointment: The entire team, but mostly GM Mike Elias and the front office.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers (59-38)
One of the better stories in baseball has to be the Tigers. It wouldn't have been the most shocking thing in the world if the Tigers weren't able to continue their momentum they built at the end of the 2024 season. They had to go nuclear in the 2nd half to make the playoffs before beating the Astros in the opening round. Sometimes that's not telling of what's to come the following year. Yeah no, the Tigers rock. While the lineup won't blow you away, it's pretty deep and pesky. Skubal is a sicko at the top and is in contention to win another Cy Young award. Guy is a legit freak. His SNB start against the Twins a few weeks ago was as dominant you'll see a pitcher be.
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Surprise: I'm going with two players here. Gleyber Torres came over from the Yankees and has thrived in Detroit as their leadoff man, resulting in him starting in the All Star Game. If you're a Yankees fan this isn't all that surprising since he was the most obvious change of scenery guy ever. I'm happy for him. I really don't think it was gonna work in NY anymore and he deserved a fresh start. The other surprise has to be Javy Baez, another starter in the ASG. Wait, did I just type JAVY BAEZ? In a positive manner? After three years where it seemed his days as a starting player were numbered Javy has awoken and become a helpful piece. What a great surprise for the Tigers.
Disappointment: I nearly went with nothing because honestly if you're a Tigers fan what the hell are you complaining about, but for the sake of the blog I'll go with Jack Flaherty who has not pitched to his contract. As great as Skubal is, this team will fail in October if they don't go out and get another impact SP unless Flaherty reverts back to his 2024 version.
Minnesota Twins (47-49)
For the sake of time let's breeze through the rest of this division. This is a runaway and I'd be shocked if any of the remaining teams challenge for a wild card spot.
Surprise: We might actually be on our way to a full season of Byron Buxton and my god is he incredible to watch. Already up to a 4.2 WAR with a .925 OPS and a 149 OPS+. This guy is flatout awesome when he's out there.
A tough decision for Minnesota will center around possibly trading their prized outfielder in a few weeks. Buxton's contract is a bargain for what you're getting this season, but in reality he's 31 years old and on borrowed time for a major injury to derail him. He's due just $15M AAV, but that runs through 2028. You have the chance to sell sky high right now to a contender that needs outfield help and get out of that money when his production isn't doing much for you right now anyways. Imagine the Mets getting their hands on him? It's a risk for sure, but the production right now is incredible and game-changing. I'd trade him given the fact that the Twins are going nowhere fast.
Disappointment: Carlos Correa is brutal, man. Through 83 games he's posted a sub .700 OPS with just seven homers. How lucky the Mets and Giants are to have dodged that contract.
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Kansas City Royals (47-50)
If I were to pick a Central team to make a run and get in as a wild card it'd be the Royals. They rank 2nd in the sport in ERA, but 26th in OPS. The lineup just doesn't have enough thump from top to bottom. If they went out and added a few bats it'd be interesting, but I don't see the front office doing that.
Surprise: I'll go Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron really giving this rotation depth. Outstanding seasons to this point from both guys, further extending the team's identity of run prevention.
Disappointment: He's a rookie so this is a bit unfair, but I expected more from top prospect Jac Caglianone. It's only been 35 games with 138 plate appearances, but a .459 OPS is a tough start, especially when this Royals team is in such a desperate need for offense. I hope he gets it going soon and starts to hit tanks.
Cleveland Guardians (46-49)
The Guardians front office has no one to blame for this season other than themselves. This team was a few wins away from a trip to the World Series and their response was to cut payroll. Embarrassing.
Surprise: I'd say a surprise for this team was finding out starting pitcher Luis Ortiz was tangled up in a gambling scandal related to individual pitching betting.
Apparently a decision from MLB is expected today on his fate.
Disappointment: The front office. I wonder if they further gut this team and trade Clase at the deadline to a contender. The last thing you need as an average to mediocre team is an elite closer. You know plenty of teams are going to need a high end reliever at the deadline. The smart move would be to deal Clase for a top prospect and further bolster that farm system that's currently highlighted by top 50 guys in Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter.
Chicago White Sox (32-65)
Surprise: The White Sox aren't the worst team in baseball and it's not particularly close. They can thank the Rockies for that. Chicago's run differential of -98 is better than Colorado, Washington, and the A's. It could be worse!
Disappointment: This year's version of Luis Robert is somehow worse than his career worst 2024. This guy doesn't even have a .600 OPS right now. His WAR is 0. This is a guy they needed to be good so they could flip him for a haul. You're not picking up his $20M club option for 2026 so you have to trade him, but his value couldn't be lower. Nightmare for a guy who at one time had a super team friendly contract.
AL West
Houston Astros (56-40)
Surprise, surprise the Astros are good again. Bregman gone, Tucker traded, Yordan sidelined for most of the season. Yeah, it doesn't matter. While it was a shock at the time to deal Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, they seem to have picked the perfect guy in return in Cam Smith, who is a budding star in the making. Hunter Brown earned his first All Star appearance after an incredible first half. They could use another premier arm in the rotation, but the fact that they've stretched out this division lead to five games without Yordan is incredibly impressive.
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Surprise: Jeremy Pena has taken the leap and become a legit offensive threat. His .867 OPS in 82 games earned him an All Star spot, but he unfortunately had to pass on the game after breaking a rib at the end of June. They said it's a very small fracture, but broken ribs are tricky and can't be rushed. There's no rush anyways with how this team looks right now.
Disappointment: I'll go with the Astros training staff who fumbled Yordan Alvarez's hand issue as badly as it gets. He hasn't played since May 2nd. What was first diagnosed as a muscle strain was later revealed to be a fracture. I don't know if the Astros hired the Chargers doctor who stabbed Tyrod Taylor in the lung that one time, but you can't mistake a strain for a fracture. He took swings on June 29th and experienced pain soon afterwards. The team expects him back at some point, but when and what quality of hitter they're getting are a mystery.
Seattle Mariners (51-45)
The M's are a good team, but confusing to get a read one. They don't give up a single run to the Pirates, before getting swept by the Yankees, and finishing the first half returning the sweep favor to the Tigers on the road. For the time in a while their offense isn't holding them back as they rank seventh in team OPS in the sport. They owe a big thank you for that to superstar catcher Cal Raleigh who has set the world on fire in 2025 with 38 homers by the break. His 1.011 OPS ranked just second behind Aaron Judge. It's beyond crazy what he's doing while also playing good defense behind the plate. Seattle could always use another bat and have a plethora of prospects to trade from so it'll be interesting to see how they choose to improve this squad at the deadline.
Surprise: I mean how is it not Cal Raleigh? Barring injury he's going to break Salvador Perez's home run record for a catcher by what, mid August? While I don't think he wins MVP, the fact that he's been in the conversation is impressive enough. Every time I look up he's going yard and doing so in a lineup that isn't exactly murderers' row. I wonder if teams start to be more careful when pitching to him as the months grow more important.
Disappointment: For the fourth consecutive year Julio Rodriguez's OPS has gone down. Sure his WAR earned him an All Star spot —something I thought was asinine over George Springer or Cody Bellinger —but his offense has been bland. If he really got going to the tune of his 2022 or 2023 campaigns this lineup reaches a new level.
Texas Rangers (48-49)
Everyone's sexy pick to win the AL has sputtered once again. Some are calling for investigators to look into the 2023 squad that won the World Series. The lineup has one guy with an .800 OPS, back then they had six. They presently rank 25th in team OPS while they lead baseball in ERA. They'll be an interesting team at the deadline if they continue to be stuck in the mud.
Surprise: Jacob deGrom is healthy. To this point he's made 19 starts and thrown 112.1 IP, by far the most in any season since 2019. In fact, if you add up his last three seasons totals it still doesn't get you to 112 innings. When deGrom is healthy he's a beauty to watch pitch. Some things are dialed back and his pitch count is monitored still, but the result is he's out there every fifth day throwing up zeroes. I wonder if teams come calling for him in a few weeks. Runner up for surprise is that Patrick Corbin has made 17 starts in 2025 and avoided making a fool out himself. Patrick Corbin???
Disappointment: Marcus Semien has quickly turned into one of the worst contracts in baseball, huh? A sub .700 OPS for the second consecutive season isn't gonna cut it when you make $26M a year.
Los Angeles Angels (47-49)
Hey you know what? It's mid July and the Angels' season isn't technically over. That's a win. They're still a middle of the pack team, but I've seen worse seasons from them in the past. You look at their lineup and it's actually not that bad with guys like Neto, Ward, Schanuel, and Jo Adell sprinkled in there with Trout in the middle. They're at least watchable when they're home.
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Surprise: Zach Neto establishing himself as one of the game's best shortstops is a development the Angels needed. Initially one of those guys they called him almost immediately after drafting, he's really found a groove in the big leagues. Everything about his game is what Yankees fans hoped Anthony Volpe would be for them. Neto is a very nice player. Honorable mention here is that Mike Trout is currently not out for the season.
Disappointment: Arte Moreno still hasn't sold the team after years of flirting with the idea.
Athletics (41-57)
Trust tree here, I've watched WAY too many A's games this year. Part of that reasoning is that their Sacramento minor league home is an over money tree. Their lineup can be fun with guys like Rooker, Kurtz, Soderstrom, Butler, Langeliers, and Wilson.
Surprise: How is it not Jacob Wilson, who not only made the All Star team, but started at shortstop over Bobby Witt Jr? Crazy, but deserved with the season he's put together leading off for the A's. Dude is a hitting machine even if he cooled off a little bit as we headed into the break.
Disappointment: After their May 13th win against the Dodgers on the road the A's were 22-20 and getting some buzz. They didn't win their 24th game until June 5th. While it's fun for people who enjoy offense, the fact that they play real games in that Sacramento stadium is NUTS.
Alright that's about 3,100 words on the American League. We'll see if the pain in my fingers subsides quick enough to get the NL one up at a reasonable hour.