The Good Times Continue To Roll In For The Thunder After Chet Holmgren Signs A Massive 5 Year/$250M Max Rookie Extension
Jesse D. Garrabrant. Getty Images.I think it's safe to say this has been a pretty great summer for the Thunder and their fans. They just completed one of the most dominant wire to wire seasons in NBA history, they backed up their regular season dominance with the franchise's first ever NBA title, SGA won every award on earth which was immediately followed by a massive $280M+ extension, the fanbase gets to ride the high of that title for another 330+ days, and honestly the good news isn't close to ending any time soon.
God damn!
While some may think this was a slight overpay by the Thunder, I would counter that by saying who gives a shit even if it was? I think you are being a bit naive if you were under the impression that the Thunder's 3 core players who were all eligible for extensions this summer, signed for anything less than the max. Why should they? Whenever these things come out, you always have to remember not to pay attention to the dollar amount. Those numbers are going to continue to get crazy as the cap continues to go up. Instead, look at all of these deals as a percentage of the cap, and you're kidding yourself if you don't think Chet is worth 25% of the Thunder's cap. Don't be an idiot.
A player at his age with his two way impact? That guy gets the max. My guess is Sam Presti spent virtually no time thinking about this or negotiating it. It's an easy no brainer max extension, especially when he played a crucial role in their first ever title. We saw it with SGA's max, we saw it with Chet's max, and we're going to see it with Jalen Williams' extension that is also coming (he's eligible this summer as well).
We just saw how impactful Chet was as a defender in their title run, and I'd say his offensive game is nowhere near where it will be in say, 2 seasons.
Very few players of Chet's caliber are finished products by age 23, so I would expect his 3pt shooting to continue to improve, his patience offensively to improve which is what comes with more game reps (he's only played 147 career games) , a more developed post game etc. The good news is if this is the baseline and where he's starting from, that's a pretty fucking good player.
Just like with the Magic and their Paolo extension the other day, with this news and knowing the JDub extension is also on the way, it leads you right back to the issue of how bullshit the CBA is. The Thunder are the latest team to build "the right way". They hit on their picks, they developed their young talent, they made savvy trades, and it all resulted in that title run. Well, now the time has come to pay for all that work, and when it comes time to pay those players, in this new CBA world it means your clock has started before it's time to sell off pieces.
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After this Chet extension, here is the Thunder's cap situation
As of today, they are $17M away from the 2nd apron in 2026-27. If you slate JDub's extension at the same $41M (but it'll probably be slightly higher at 30% due to him making All NBA next year), that has the Thunder around $24M into the 2nd apron starting after next season.
In my opinion, OKC is going to be the most fascinating team to watch when it comes to navigating the 2nd apron bullshit. Where they differ from other teams is the 2nd apron penalty of pick freezing and going to the end of the 1st is not exactly an issue for them like it is for other teams. They have more picks than they know what to do with when it comes to potentially finding talent replacements.
But even with all of those avenues to bring in rookies, that will not prevent them from having to trim around the edges. If they want to push back the start of their 2nd apron clock, that pretty much means iHart/Dort are where you start. I suppose it's possible to turn down their team option and extend at a lower number, but remember OKC will be $24M into the 2nd apron at this time at a minimum. I think it's much more likely one (or both) are off the team if OKC does not want to start their 2nd apron clock.
Say they decide to ride it out and start their clock in 2026-27, that means that once they get past their 2 years in the 2nd apron, you're looking at potential departures like Caruso, Wallace, Wiggins, Joe etc. No matter how they slice it, they'll be paying their core around $200M for 3 guys, which means resetting and retooling is inevitable.
While the pick part of the 2nd apron penalties may not matter for OKC, the rest of the team building penalties will, just like anyone else. Can't combine salaries in trades, can't sign buyout guys, can't use exceptions etc. Those are the basketball reasons teams will not spend 3 years in the 2nd apron, not just the pick freezing.
For all we know, the rookies they draft will develop into the stars we currently see, but that's certainly no guarantee. This is also assuming their ownership group is going to be willing to pay the repeater tax penalties. The Thunder start this season as a tax team, and if you are a tax team for 3 straight years, you begin repeater tax penalties. Once those hit while you are also in the 2nd apron, you're talking about a tax bill that's in the hundreds of millions. That is in addition to your $200M+ roster.
We just saw what happened with the Celtics who threw out max extensions to everyone immediately after their title and were repeater tax payers who spent 2 years in the 2nd apron. What happened? They had to sell off around their core. It's just the nature of this new world we live in, and OKC will most likely eventually have to do the same.
Which is once again why this CBA is complete and total bullshit. The Thunder built the right way, reached the top of the mountain while most of their players were on rookie deals, and even their window is potentially only 2-3 years after winning their first title before it's time to sell off key rotation pieces.
It just seems so insane to me that OKC or any other team that eventually has a build like them is going to be penalized for being good at their job. It's not like they formed a super team in free agency or whatever. But what this CBA is telling us is that even if you do it all mostly organically and make all the right moves, even you don't get to have a prolonged title window before it's time to start offloading pieces. How does that help the NBA or small markets? It's all so stupid.