2025 Hot Dog Blog - Crunch The Advanced Wienerlytics For Nathan's 4th Of July Hot Dog Eating Competition
The king returns. Joey Chestnut is officially back to reclaim his throne of franks at Nathan's annual hot dog eating contest today on Coney Island. And as is tradition, I am here to bring you all the weinerlytics to make you the smartest hot dog eating competition savant at the 4th of July party when the first dog slides down the first throat. By the time you crack that first beer or Truly and put a brat on your paper plate, you'll have all the facts to steal the center of attention from the grill master in the back yard. Let's get to it. There's much to discuss.
You might be thinking. "Joey Chestnut is going to win. What else is there to know?" I mean - you're right. He's going to win but let's see what other plays we might be able to get ahead of the market on. Unlike the public, I have the results of every contest going back to the first Nathan's contest thanks to Major League Eating supplying them to me personally. So sit down and spread those buns and get ready to learn hot dog.
Let's start with the basics. I crushed some back of the card stats for all competitors listed for the big day.
Some notes.
Miki Sudo is pretty much the women's Joey Chestnut. Call her Miki… Breastovary??? We'll work on that. Anyway, she's 10/10 which is insane and holds a 13-dog average lead from the second best lady dog eater. Even if she performs two standard deviations below her average (27.9 dogs) - she'd still win. For the non-stats crowd, there's merely a 2.5% chance of her scoring two standard deviations below her average. This is as big a lock as Chestnut.
Joey Chestnut being in the game since I graduated high school is impressive when you consider it's ten years before the next eldest in the men's conference. This is like LeBron James if LeBron was good enough to play at a level to win rings. So basically, not at all the same. Interestingly though - that doesn't mean Chestnut is one of the old guys by age. And that brings us to our first prop play based on the wienerlytics.
Geoffrey Esper Total Dogs Eaten 50.5 (Under)
49-year old Geoffrey Esper crushed 53 last year which would lead the novice hot dog better to go over. But you did not skim this blog to be a novice. You're here to be a sharp. A hot dog skewer if you will. And all hot dog betting skewers wake up each morning and brush up on their hot dog eating age cliff trends…
You'll see Esper has cracked 50 dogs with a nice upward trend. But at some point, all will find their age cliff. Eric "Badlands" Booker found his a little before 50, Erik "The Red" earlier in his late 30s. So did Tim "Eater X" Janus and Joey Chestnut himself. And you know who understood the age cliff best of all? Kobayashi. Dude turned 30 then Irish goodbye'd with his legend and legacy in place.
Now you might wonder if age is really the factor at play here or might it be career dogs eaten? Is this more like running backs who fall off after facing heavy workloads? It's a fair question but doesn't appear to be the case. Kobayashi ate 487.75 career dogs in this comp and as you see from Joey Chestnut, he hasn't slowed down until 2022 when he dipped down to just 62 (a ridiculous notion). I think age is a factor the only problem is it's not unilaterally the same age for all. Much like QB age cliffs. Definitely something to watch out for an that's why I'm betting against Esper's over.
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James Webb Total Dogs Eaten 50.5 (Over)
James Webb can engulf dogs like the James Webb telescope engulfs galaxies. And he's still on another deep analytic trend in the hot dog game. While no perfect science, contestants generally improve in their first two to three years:
There's James Webb in blue on the right. He's gone 41, 47, 52 and aims to keep climbing in 2025. 50.5 should be no problem. Famous last words, of course. Again - not a perfect science, but you'll notice the trend of contestants getting more comfortable in their first few years as they are able to get rid of the butterflies in their stomachs to replace them with waterlogged hot dogs. I'm not expecting him to make another big leap this year - but he should plateau and hit his over.
Patrick Bertoletti to beat everyone not named Joey Chestnut (+135)
James Webb was my pick last year, as I expected him to continue to improve based on this very research. While he did, he was upset by Bertoletti who made just his second appearance after skipping 2023. With the age cliff concerns of Esper and the fact that it looks like Webb's first three year bump is likely now over, there's no reason to get cute here. This is one of the more confident +135 bets I can remember which of course makes me then also feel like it will certainly lose. But we must not let such feelings get in the way of the numbers. We must trust the processed.
Here's that same graph with Bertoletti's orange line dominating Webb's and anyone else in recent years not named after a nut.
It's unclear by the wieners whether we should expect Bertoletti to continue to ascend another year or plateau since he skipped 2023. Either way - his 58 dog performance last year seems out of the realistic probability for Webb (52 last year). Now we do have a couple of newcomers to make their debut dropping dog on the table. That includes Cameron Meade and Jerome Burns. Expecting much from a rookie is not supported by the wienerlytics as first year men's contestants average 27.2 dogs downed since 2000 and 32.2 for the modern game.
What's the modern game you ask? As is true of all sports - performance heightens as new technology (gluten free buns????) and better training give new generations a boost. Hot dog eating is no exception.
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Longshot Plays
"Any contestant to win (not including Joey Chestnut) not listed" (+1500)
"Any contestant to win outright not listed" (+6500)
As argued - I think Bertolli takes second place. But there's one guy that can make a play who is every bit worth this +1500. Ricardo Corbucci. I LOVE this long shot play to give a little spice to the card. In fact - you don't even really need him to win sans Chestnut, you just can't have any DK listed guys win. That includes Bertoletti, Esper, Webb, Wehry, Max Stanford and Derek Hendrickson. But I don't think anyone else has a chance.
Here's the case for Corbucci. He's a second-year guy, so as you now know we expect him to take a big step up in year two. And he crushed 43 dogs in his rookie season last year. That's more than Webb's 41, and Bertoletti's 33.5. Remember, Bertoletti jumped his game to 58 after his rookie year. He was the guy I didn't see coming in 2024. The guy the wienerlytics didn't see coming. I guess that's what happens when you take a year off in-between. But I won't this dog fall off my plate this year. In fact, at +6500 to win outright, I like giving this a small shot as it's the only contestant that has a chance in hell if Joey is waterchestnutted out after playing in the vegan league.
All in all - these are my plays:
- Geoffrey Esper under 50.5
- James Webb over 50.5
- Bertoletti to beat the field sans Chestnut +135
- The field to beat everyone except Chestnut (Basically Corbucci) +1500
- The field to win outright (Basically Corbucci) +6500.
I don't see anything listed for the buns conference at the time of this writing, but there's just no reason to fade Miki Sudo if and when lines finally pop up.
Whatever your total betting allocation is - put 50% on the Bertolletti and split the other half as you wish on the long shots and you'll profit if any of the three win.
Good luck on your dogs. And remember. Trust the processed.
