Rangers Finally Legitimize Their Top Pair & Ink Vladislav Gavrikov As Free Agency Opens
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Deja vu all over again?
Wasn't that long ago the Blueshirts acquired a "sure-fire" 1D then dropped a 7-year/$56M contract in his pocket…and we all know how that went.
It's a little different now though. In '19-20 the salary cap was at $81.5M and only crept up to $83.5M five years later before a decent bump to $87.5M last season. So we've grown accustomed to numbers and salaries over the past 6 years. But $8M is no longer the $8M we're used to, and to add Gavrikov for $7M/per is even better. When Jacob Trouba's new contract kicked in, his $8M cap hit accounted for 9.82% of the salary cap and, without any significant cap jumps, stayed in that range for the duration of his Rangers tenure. As he crept towards 30 & his play slipped, there was nothing to offset the financial burden. This year though the cap leaps to $95.5M. $104M the following year. $113.5M after that. So $7M now is 7.32% of the cap (which equals $6M in '19-20) then drops to 6.73% & 6.17% in Year 3. One day we'll all smarten up and finally refer to cap hits by percentage instead of dollar amount because piece of the pie is all that really matters.
Gavrikov's previous deal (2 years, $5.875M/per) was 7% of the cap when signed two summers ago. He barely got a raise in terms of his slice despite deserving much more compared to some other deals that were handed out. Romanov 8x$6.5M? Provorov 7x$8.5M? Yikes. He wants to be here. So before everyone freaks out about term and AAV like we do every UFA shopping spree, you gotta put it all in perspective. The Rangers are barely paying a premium for the first year before his cap impact is less than his prior $5.875M AAV, decreasing more year after year. This is a great deal.
The "big money" contracts teams are committed to long-term are gonna start to look like peanuts after a couple summers & the potential sting of poorly aging deals will lessen. So ponying up 7 sheets to win the undisputed top left-shot UFA blueline option isn't nearly the financial risk it's been for years. Filling a glaring need for a legitimate shutdown partner alongside the Norris-winning Adam Fox was a must after watching him hampered by a floundering Ryan Lindgren & other defenders who simply aren't cut out for a top-pair role. The late-blooming Vladislav Gavrikov has done nothing but eat the toughest defensive ES/PK minutes in bulk since his NHL debut as a 24 year-old & hit a career high note this past season in LA.
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Gavrikov has evolved into an absolute defensive juggernaut and he's had success regardless of who he's played with. Last year it was Mikey Anderson, Matt Roy the year before (who netted 6 years/$5.75M per as a UFA & underwhelmed without Gavrikov in WAS). Anderson is a great young own-zone defender in his own right and LA as a whole have been among the league's stingiest teams the last two years, so it's fair to question how much the team boosted Gavrikov as opposed to vice versa - although the fancy charts show pretty much anyone on the Kings was better when on the ice with Gavrikov vs without:
Still, that's a common question for all sought-after free agents. Excelling in one spot doesn't automatically translate to success everywhere. The risk is less though when you're taking offense out of the equation. Not that Gavrikov isn't capable of contributing a respectable 30 points & getting pucks to the net but his calling card is fundamentally sound, high-IQ defensive hockey. That type of skillset will always have a higher chance of translating elsewhere than someone coming off a career-high goal scoring season. Combine that with the significant annual projected cap jumps offsetting his cap hit more & more, this is as safe a move a team can make to put together a top pair capable of being among the league's best as they immediately look to prove last season's nosedive was simply a perfect storm aberration.
This is how free agency always works. The top guys, usually around 28+ years old, are getting max term and it won't be a bargain…UNLESS the player has only one place in mind which was clearly the case with Gavrikov & the Rangers. The back end of every single UFA max deal is worrisome but that's the risk you run if you truly believe your squad has the horses to contend within a 4-5 year window. You may disagree, but that's clearly how the Rangers see themselves - as the team that played 43 playoff games & 2 ECFs over three postseasons prior to this past tire fire. If they're gonna bounce back then it had to be top priority to shore up the d-zone & make it easier for their top two talents (Shesterkin & Fox) to thrive. Adding Gavrikov (albeit 30 in November) to the fold does exactly that.
This pairing has elite potential and I'm not even considering the offensive zone. No one was more important to their team defensively in terms of puck possession than Adam Fox, as evidenced by his league-leading relative Corsi-against. Now that's relative to the rest of the Rangers who were all pretty awful but it's still telling that he's already capable of playing quality defensive hockey regardless of how much the rest of his team sucks. Can't control anyone other than yourself & opponents attacked much less with Fox deployed. But now he'll be flanked by Gavrikov, who finished 22nd in the league in relative CA (among D with 800+ minutes) on a squad that's infinitely stronger defensively all-around. If he's impacting a strong defensive team that much then logic dictates Gavrikov's impact is gonna be even greater on an overall weaker squad paired with their best individual option.
There are no guarantees and, even if there were, a new coach and a couple roster moves won't solely be responsible for any improvements. Plenty of returning Rangers young & old who need to either blossom or bounce back to a level of individual success they've had donning the red, white & blue not long ago as well. But the offseason is paper season. Organizations are either making paper trades or committing significant paper to players that make them the best team possible…on paper. How that translates to ice can only be speculated for now, but there's no question Vladislav Gavrikov is the best (realistic) paper add Drury could make with his sights set on immediately returning to form as an Eastern powerhouse. That's all you can ask in July.
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