Forget The Stars, NBA History Suggests It's The Role Players Would Will Ultimately Decide Who Wins The NBA Title

There are a lot of reasons to be excited for Sunday's Game 7. For starters, any sort of Game 7, regardless of the spor,t is awesome. It's why we watch sports. A winner takes all game for a championship after 6 grueling games is about as good as it gets. Everything you thought you knew about the series or each team immediately goes out the window as the challenge now becomes who can find a way to be the better team for those 48 minutes. 

Experiencing a Game 7 in the NBA Finals certainly isn't for the weak. To be honest, I wouldn't wish that shit on my worst enemy. Losing in the playoffs is always tough, but a Game 7 loss in the NBA Finals is something that changes you forever as a fan. You never recover from it. I always look at it differently than perhaps losing in the title game in college or the Super Bowl in the NFL, since you only play 1 game during those runs. Things change once you get into a 7 game series, especially a series where both sides had their opportunities to avoid this Game 7 altogether. For OKC, that was dropping Game 1. For IND, that was dropping Game 4.

Whenever a Game 7 happens, people tend to focus on the stars (for good reason). Those are the guys who need to show up and earn their status as a star/superstar player. You need your best to show up for a full 48 minutes. But so often throughout NBA history, Game 7s are actually more about "the others", and which side is going to get the prayer role player performance that will haunt the opposing fanbase for the rest of their lives. 

Think back to the 2013 NBA Finals and Game 7 between the Spurs and Heat. The Heat won that game 95-88, and sure it's true that LeBron had 37/12/4 and Wade had 23/10. Those were big, but expected performances. The real reason MIA won that game?

Shane Battier off the bench

A monster 18 points in 29 minutes off the bench by going 6-8 (6-8) from the floor. How much of a prayer was that performance? Battier had just 6 3PM total in the 2013 Finals prior to Game 7. He had just 5 total 3PM in the previous 3 rounds! With Chris Bosh going 0-5 from the floor, Battier saved the day and had the random performance of a lifetime

How about the 2010 Finals and that Game 7? I'm still not over Ron Artest's 20 points (highest of the Finals) and series-sealing 3PM after he had struggled to make a 3 all night

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This obviously isn't just a Finals thing either. We see this trend is Game 7s regardless of round. Remember the famous Kawhi shot in 2019 in the Raptors/Sixers Game 7? That's usually what people think about when thinking of that game. Well, I'd argue they aren't even in that position without Serge Ibaka's 17 points (and 3 3PM) off the bench (+22).

I'll remind you, Ibaka did not make a single 3PM at any point prior in that series! Yet there he was in Game 7, knocking down massive shots that I'm sure are still haunting Sixers fans. 

We've also seen Kelly Olynyk come in and drop 26 off the bench in a Game 7 against the Wizards in 2017

And then Grant Williams make 7 3PM off the bench in Game 7 vs MIL in 2022

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and then of course there was Calen Martin going 11-16 (4-6) in Game 7 back in 2023 which just so happened to be his playoff career high

The point is, you're kidding yourself if you don't think the role players or "the others" are going to play a massive role in determining the 2025 NBA title. It's just how these things go. So with that in mind, who are the most likely candidates to be that guy to bring his team to glory?

While we've seen some starter role players be that guy, this feels more like it's going to be more along the lines of the Battier/Olynyk/Grant type player off the bench. So far in this series, we've already seen both sides have huge performances from bench guys to swing Finals games, so I expect nothing less in Game 7. 

With that in mind, I decided to Power Rank them based on who I think is more likely to be that guy for each team. 

The Favorites

OKC: Alex Caruso

IND: Obi Toppin

I think this is where you obviously have to start. I get why some might think this is where TJ McConnell should be, but these Game 7s come down to role player shotmaking, and both of these guys are the "swing" bench scorers who we've already seen win a game via their bench production.

For Caruso, that was his 20 points (4 3PM) in Game 2 and then his 20 points (77/50% splits) in Game 4. He's done it both at home and on the road, and coming off his complete dud in Game 6 (0 points, 0-2), it feels like water will find its level in Game 7 at home. Especially if the Pacers keep the same defensive approach on SGA and send him those delayed doubles on his iso drives. That's going to require someone else to step up and make their open 3s, and I could absolutely see Caruso being the guy who steps up. I feel like he's going to be on the floor way more than his 22 minutes last night, and it's no surprise that in almost every OKC win (outside of Game 5), Caruso usually comes through via his defense and shotmaking.

For Obi Toppin, it's the shotmaking aspect that has him in this group. It's been fascinating to watch Toppin in these Finals because it feels like his first shift in minutes is always a bit of a disaster, and when Toppin is bad, he's BAD. Almost unplayable. But then something flips, and he finds a way to be insanely impactful. He's also a player who has shown to have these types of performances both at home and on the road in these Finals. His 5 3PM in Game 1 were massive, and his 4 3PM last night is what helped IND break away. He's the ultimate feast or famine shooter, which is exactly the type of player that has these swing moments in Game 7s. He's either missing every shot he takes or he's barely hitting the rim while burying everything. 

The Darkhorses

OKC: Aaron Wiggins

IND: TJ McConnell

For the majority of these Finals, Aaron Wiggins hasn't really been a factor. But in a game where you are hoping a role player might get hot at home to save your season, it should be noted that we've already seen Wiggins do that twice in this series. His 5 3PM and 18 points in Game 2 is what saved OKC at that time, and then his 4 3PM and 14 points in Game 5 make him a great option for players who may find themselves in a similar spot on Sunday. He feels like your classic role player that's great at home and shitty on the road, which is why you fight all year for Game 7 of the NBA Finals on your home floor. I think one learning OKC can take from Game 6 is they have to do a much better job staying attached in terms of 3P volume, and to do that OKC is going to have to play their shooters.

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While McConnell may not go out and make 5-7 3PM to swing the game, his argument is more for overall impact. What's interesting about him is that his production/play is sustainable. His play in this series isn't some bench player prayer where he goes an entire playoff run being a non-factor, and then he shows up in Game 7 and goes nuts. This is a guy who is shooting 53/60% for the entire series! The pace he plays with, the energy and effort, those are the things around the margins that can be the difference in a Game 7. Playing hard is a skill, and I think McConnell and Caruso are great examples of how valuable that is.

Starter role player options

OKC: Lu Dort

IND: Andrew Nembhard

If I had to choose which "role player" from the starting groups could have their own Caleb Martin or Ron Artest moment, it's these two. 

When you're picking your poison in terms of limiting OKC's offense, you tend to live with making Lu Dort be the one to beat you. It's a risk given that Dort has turned himself into a 39-40% three point shooter on high volume, but it's a chance you have to take to avoid letting SGA/JDub go crazy. I could absolutely see a world where the Pacers sell out to slow those two down, and it results in a bunch of open C&S opportunities for Dort. He took advantage of those in Game 1 (5 3PM) and Game 5 (3 3PM), so would it shock anyone if he made 4 or 5 3s on Sunday? He feels like a player who has a knack for making the big momentum 3s, which is a crucial part of winning these Game 7s. If you're dared to shoot, you HAVE to come through, and I see a world where Dort steps up.

With Andrew Nembhard, you have to remember you are dealing with an elite playoff aim bot. I'm not sure what happens to Nembhard once he gets into the postseason, but he morphs into something series, especially as a shooter. He's at 39% from deep in the Finals, just went 3-5 in Game 6, and he's the exact type of player that goes off in a Game 7 and then has OKC fans cursing his name for the rest of time when they see him struggle during the regular season. He's been so impactful defensively on SGA that it doesn't really feel like we've gotten the Nembhard offensive explosion yet. I'm talking about this guy

Automatic from midrange, automatic from deep, and a version of a basketball demon that keeps you up at night. We got a preview of what that version of Nembhard could look like in Game 6, but with all the attention that Siakam/Haliburton are going to get, I could absolutely see a world where Demon Nembhard has a vintage performance and becomes a legend forever.

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To me, this is what makes Sunday so fun. The pressure on the stars to show up goes without saying, but them playing well is sort of expected. The beauty of these games is that they almost all come down to which side gets the random role player boost, and 2025 shouldn't be any different.