Buckle Up Because NBA History Suggests That Whoever Loses Tonight's Game 2 Of The NBA Finals Is Absolutely Screwed

Zach Beeker. Getty Images.

Game 1 of the NBA Finals was a game that made no logical sense. You could run the simulation a million times, and never get a game like that. It defied pretty much everything we knew about basketball, how the Oklahoma City Thunder dominate basketball games, life, logic, all of it. That's what made it so awesome. You were truly witnessing pure basketball chaos. 

Please look at that graph above. You see what happens when you have a +10 differential? It's impossible to lose. Hell, even if you're slightly below that threshold, you still are in a great position to win.

Now look at where the Thunder were in Game 1 and their result. That shouldn't be possible. Their inability to convert their turnovers into points at their normal rate, instead having the worst production of their entire season, is a massive storyline of Game 1. What was 11 points normally is more like 24. If that were the case, the Thunder walk to a Game 1 win.

But it didn't happen. Instead, we live in a different reality, something that is pretty unique when you look back at NBA history. This is where the significance of Game 2 comes into play (for both sides), and why I cannot wait for 8pm. Recent NBA history suggests that whoever loses tonight, is essentially screwed. Does that make tonight a series defining game? That's for you to decide, I'm just here to tell you the reality of what history tells us and where we could very well be headed based on how things shake out.

In the 2-2-1-1-1 format, there have been 129 instances of a team dropping Game 1 at home. That team is 62-67 all time. Right off the bat, that doesn't feel too good for the Thunder right? Well, that's because you have to dig a little deeper. Despite that shitty all time record, there is reason to hope for OKC. There have been just two instances of this happening in an NBA Finals in this format. 

1. 2022 Warriors

2. 1984 Celtics

What do we know about both of those teams (sigh)? They both won the NBA title. The Warriors over the Celtics in 6, and the Celtics over the Lakers in 7. 

For the Thunder to follow in their path, it all comes down to what they do in Game 2. If they respond and take care of business tonight, splitting the first two at home, that changes things to a 58-40 record. Once again digging deeper, you get both the 2022 Warriors and 1984 Celtics as the teams who did it in the Finals. What cannot happen is dropping both. That, is something we've never seen done in an NBA Finals in this format, and only 4 teams in NBA history have ever come back to win that series in any other round (4-27). Shoutout Isaiah Thomas. We've already seen 3 other teams do that and fail (2025 Celtics, 2025 Cavs, 2025 Knicks) in these playoffs, so it goes without saying this is about as close to a must win for the Thunder as you could possibly get.

Advertisement

There's also the Pacers side to this as well. For starters, by stealing Game 1, history says you go on to win the NBA Finals 70% of the time, which to me is a fairly decent starting point. This might be a hot take so I apologize if it offends, but I've always said it's better to start a playoff series 1-0 compared to 0-1. You may disagree, but that's my belief.

With the Pacers having done that, what happens tonight is going to go a LONG way in dictating how the rest of the series plays out. If the Pacers are able to take Game 2, the significance of that is a bit overwhelming. Teams are 27-4 (math!) all time as the road team up 2-0. And while the first thing people will often do is bring up the PHX/MIL Finals in 2021, this situation doesn't really compare. The Bucks lost those first two games as the road team, won both at home, and then ripped off a total of 4 straight. This would be the exact opposite of that, since the Pacers would be stealing those first two on the road and then going home with a chance to sweep. Down 0-2 going home is MUCH different than down 0-2 and going on the road. 

Taking a step back, teams overall with a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals are 32-5. If you include all playoff rounds, it's 433-34. 

So just add it all up in terms of what's on the line tonight. If the Thunder drop Game 2, they will have to become the first team in NBA history in the 2-2-1-1-1 format to win the title after dropping both games at home to start the Finals. Overall, only 5 teams ever in NBA history have won a Finals falling into an 0-2 hole, and only 34 teams in NBA history have ever won a playoff series.

For such a massive favorite and historic team like the Thunder, that would be a disaster.

If the Pacers drop Game 2, recent NBA history tells us that might very well cook their chances in the series. Just ask the 2022 Celtics and 1984 Lakers how it worked out by not taking both games on the road. But if they win it? Their first ever title is practically guaranteed, barring the Thunder making history. It quite literally would require the Thunder to make NBA history if the Pacers win Game 2. 

Call me crazy, but that sounds like a pretty important game to me! Good luck!