Every Single Damn Thing You Need To Know For Tonight's Final Four Games
Alright, here we are. Probably the most anticipated day in the college basketball world every year. There's something different about Final Four Saturday than any other day. It might be the double header combined with the stakes and the fact you have this year all four No. 1 seeds there for the first time since 2008. There's always the storylines and games to go with it. That's no different today, at least with he storylines. We know about them all. Auburn was the best team in the country before cruising down the stretch, looking for its first national title. Jon Scheyer finally has Duke in the Final Four, looking to complete the Cooper Flagg year. Kelvin Sampson is back and feels like Houston is somehow the Cinderella story because people forget about them. Florida ended the year as hot as anyone and needed Walter Clayton heroics to get them here. It's all there and makes for what needs to be a great Final Four. Anyways, this blog is simple - talk about the two games, make a couple picks and then run out the clock until tip time. Give us a Jalen Suggs moment.
Bracket
Most important player on each team today
1. Cooper Flagg (Duke) - Yeah, no shit. He just won NPOY, he's going to be the No. 1 pick in the Draft. We've seen Duke run its offense through Flagg in different ways this Tournament. It's more free flowing to start the game, then usually in the second half they put him in the short roller spot around the free throw line and let him either get to the rim, throw a lob or a kick pass to a corner three. It's simple. As Flagg goes, Duke goes.
2. Emmanuel Sharp (Houston) - Sharp might be the most underrated player in the country. I'm concerned about LJ Cryer in this game. Duke has a ton of size that can blitz Cryer. So what does that mean? Turn him into a passer, let him draw attention and set up other people. Sharp is that guy. He averaged 13 per game and shot 42% from three. He can shoot Houston into a lead here.
3. Alex Condon (Florida) - We're still waiting for the Alex Condon game. He had that ankle injury last week and we have no idea how close to 100% he is. But going against Florida, I wouldn't be surprised to see him just play Broome straight up, daring Auburn others to beat them. Condon can also score. He's an offensive threat that we haven't seen much of yet this Tournament. This feels like a Condon game. We know Clayton will shoot it late, we know Alijah Martin can be the 2nd option and Will Richard can be a microwave scorer. But Condon is the key.
4. Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn) - I'm sure you're wondering why Johni Broome isn't here. Broome is awesome. I also think we know what Broome can do, even with basically every limb being injured. If Florida tries to let Broome get his and dare others to beat them, Baker-Mazara is one of those key others. He's getting up 3s during the Tournament run, but hasn't hit more than 2 in a game. We also know that he got ejected last year against Yale and can be liable for a technical at any time.
Advertisement
Future Odds
Games, storylines, breakdowns
Florida vs Auburn
The SEC rematch. Florida went into Auburn this year, without Alijah Martin, and controlled the entire game against Auburn. This is when Auburn was rolling too. It's hard to shake that. But at the same time, we've seen Florida have to get bailed out against UConn and Texas Tech. It took missed free throws, Walter Clayton being the most clutch player in the Tournament and a Thomas Haugh career type game to get here. That's not to knock Florida, but it's also kept Auburn a bit undervalued. They are the No. 1 overall seed and have the longest shot to win. Right off the bat we gotta again mention the Johni Broome injury
There was never a doubt that Broome is going to play, it's just how much can he do. We saw him basically play one-armed after he came back in last week. Now he had a 6-day break and I'm sure on some medicine to help out. I do want to see how Florida plays him. I think Golden is going to play him straight up, not send doubles and basically say okay if Broome gets his 20+, can anyone else help out. He's got 4 guys if he throws Hough out there to defend Broome and give different looks. For Auburn there are concerns defensively. You can't run a ton of drop coverage against Florida with the shooters. That means Broome/Cardwell have to stay up on the high and PnR's which opens up space even more. I want to see who wins the microwave battle. Tahaad Pettiford is arguably the best bench scorer in the country. When he comes in constant chaos with him flying around, making plays. Florida has Will Richard in the starting 5 who isn't as chaotic but will hunt shots and if he's hot early it settles Florida into the game. There is also the coaching matchup here. Pearl hired Golden and they have a history together, which could make prep a bit different knowing exactly what they like to do.
Houston vs Duke
I've said it all year I think Houston is the best team in the country. This isn't the same old Houston. They have shotmakers, they are one of the best shooting teams in the country. However, Cryer is a concern in this game. We saw Duke just blitz Mark Sears with his size and take him out of the game. Sears pressed and was a disaster, in fact he was a complete negative out there. Cryer can't be that. I'm less concerned with him not scoring than Sears because of Houston's scheme. They have Sharp and Uzan, in fact they could let Uzan attack and be more of a ball handler, letting Cryer run off of screens, just so they have more size with the ball. The ultimate story here though is what has been talked about since the bracket came out. The toughness of Houston and physicality vs Duke. They came out of a finesse region. Alabama, Arizona, Baylor, those aren't teams who are going to try and beat you up and play a rock fight if need be. Houston is just fine doing that. It was obviously different players, but similar style, when Tennessee did this to Duke a couple years ago in the Tournament. However, Duke has Cooper Flagg. I think you can put Tugler on him, but Tugler is also a guy constantly in foul trouble. He's an elite defender, but he has to be patient with his blitzes. Where Duke can be vulnerable is in the mid-range. I know it's a taboo word basically, but they want to take you off the 3-point line and you have rim protectors all over the place. Houston actually likes shooting the mid-range. Hit a couple early and make them adjust.
Advertisement
Live Show
If you're in San Antonio get to River North Ice House.
Picks
Advertisement
16-15 so far in the NCAA Tournament, +1.04 units
Auburn +2.5
Houston +4.5
I know this tournament has been chalk. I know this tournament has been favorites rolling. But I'm sticking with my gut here. I said Houston has been the best team in the country all year, I'll take them catching points. I think you see them slow it down, control tempo and then it's just a matter of hitting those mid range shots. Auburn feels undervalued. I'm scared of the Broome injury and an off shooting night, but they've been rolling so far in the Tournament.
