The Stage Is Officially Set For Absolute Chaos To End The NBA's Regular Season

With around 2 weeks left to go in the NBA's regular season, at the point teams only have 7-8 games left on their schedules. Usually, by this time of year, there's a decent level of certainty when it comes to things like playoff seeding, NBA awards, All NBA etc.

This season? The only things you can talk about with any degree of certainty are the Cavs and Thunder being the 1 seeds, and the Celtics being the 2 seed. That's really it. 

Considering this is the time of year where most people are interested in fast forwarding to the playoffs, I will say this final home stretch is set up rather well if you're interested in basketball chaos. So many things are still up for grabs, it has us positioned for a fantastic finish where things could change nightly. With so much unknown still left to be sorted out, I find that to be pretty damn exciting.

Let's start with the standings topic. Here is how things stand entering tonight's slate of games

In the East standings, I'm of the belief that since they own the H2H tie breaker, the Knicks will have to experience a disaster close to be passed over by the Pacers, who are currently rolling.

So where's the chaos? 

The 4/5/6 seeds. If you're someone like the Cavs or Celtics, how that shakes out certainly matters. To me, there's a big difference in potentially facing an injured and flawed Bucks team in Round 2 than either the Pacers or the Pistons. I know there are some who don't want to buy the Pistons, but they've been one of the better teams in the entire league for the last 50+ games, and they certainly are not what I would consider an "easy out". Given the Pacers' struggles on the road this season, it's fair to think that starting a series at home is what their striving for, and here's where the chaos starts to show up. 

2 of the 3 final games for the Pacers this season, will be against the Cavs. That, in theory could give the Cavs a choice. Sit you guys and punt the games in favor of health, but then run the risk of having to potentially face the Pacers in Round 2, a team that is one of the few teams with a winning record against above .500 opponents. Win those games, and the Cavs could push the Pacers to the other side of the bracket, and force the Celts to deal with them. Winning those games could in theory get the injured MIL team back into their side of the bracket, which I think all of the top seeds are looking for right now. 

In the West, good fucking luck trying to predict how seeds 2-10 shake out. No matter what combination of matchups we end up with, I can't think of a bad matchup. You're telling me you wouldn't love a GS/LAL first round series if the Warriors are able to climb into 5? How about a potential DEN/MIN opening round? OKC's reward for one of the best seasons we've ever seen could be a healthy Playoff Kawhi Leonard? 

This playoff seeding race is the very definition of chaos, given that it could only take a small little slip-up where you drop 2 in a row, and the next thing you know,w the entire playoff bracket changes. This is something that feels like is going to come down to the very last game of the season where all the games tip off at the same time to ensure maximum chaos, and the fact that 9 of the 10 seeds are still up for grabs with 7-8 games left is about as good as it gets from a fans perspective. All these games matter!

NBA Awards

As we know, the MVP race is just as merky today as it was at the beginning of the month when OKC/DEN played that little 2 game mini series with each side winning a game. Since then, both SGA and Jokic have continued to strengthen their cases, and we now have a situation where two players are legitimately deserving. Anyone who suggests one guy has a no brainer lead over the other is full of shit. 

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Perhaps you feel like OKC's lead on the West is what sets SGA apart, but just last season we were told that best player on the best team with a 13.5 game lead on their conference actually hurt an MVP case. When we saw that happen, we were told that this was because of a superteam. So, why does OKC's being a superteam now not matter?

I honestly don't know how you decide this award. While SGA is having without a doubt the best guard season since Steph's unanimous MVP, Jokic is having the greatest individual season of any player in NBA history, regardless of position. So will it be voter fatigue that does him in? It does feel like SGA is getting the narrative boost that we all know exists in the MVP race, but suggesting he's only worthy due to narrative/voter fatigue is also bullshit. He's more than worthy. I do wonder if the Thunder will choose to sit him at all down the stretch, whereas Jokic can't, given where the Nuggets are in the standings. 

What about DPOY? The chaos here isn't just the race between JJJ/Mobley/Draymond, there are also some pretty significant contract repercussions that can happen as a result of how this award shakes out. If Mobley/JJJ win it, it will now drastically impact their current extensions. That matters, of course, because of the 2nd apron and how teams will need to build their rosters moving forward. 

Next year, the Cavs owe Mitchell around $46M, Garland $39M, and if Mobley were to qualify for the higher rookie extension by winning DPOY, you're looking at 5/269M for him as well (this is also true if he makes All NBA, more on that in a minute). That takes his salary from around $38M to $53M. Between those salaries and the players under contract or next season, this would officially start the Cavs clock as a 2nd apron team, unless they were to unload other salaries. 

The same is true for JJJ. If he were to win DPOY, the Grizzlies would then be on the hook for a 5/345M supermax. Do you think the Grizzlies are pumped about paying anyone $69M a year? That figure hits in the 2026-27 season, when the Grizzlies are already on the hook for $42M for Ja and $39M for Bane. It feels a little unrealistic to think they dedicate $170M+ to just 3 players doesn't it?

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This is why the new CBA is such a motherfucker. You shouldn't be penalized for drafting well and hitting on picks that turn into amazing players. But the fact remains that teams are going to shed salary to get out of the 2nd apron simply because the penalties are too drastic as a repeat offender. That means teams will run the risk of shortening their window, all because they drafted well. That sucks. 

All NBA

Now that KD just sprained the shit out of his ankle, I think it's fair to question if he's going to even have enough games played to keep his All NBA spot. I'd say the same is true for Jalen Brunson who still needs a handful of games to qualify, as does Jaylen Brown. It's also not a lock that someone like Giannis hits the requirement either.

I can't remember a time we were this close to the end of the season and still has so much uncertainty around the three All NBA teams. This is where the 65 game limit is really coming into play, because we have no idea how teams will approach it. If the Bucks are locked into the 6 seed, do they sit Giannis to have him healthy? If he misses the 65, who gets his spot? If 3 Cavs make it, well then their guards are now eligible for supermax extensions on their next deal in addition to Mobley's rookie scale raise. Are they paying all 3? 

What about Jalen Williams and OKC? Their roster is about to get super expensive, so if he makes it by default because of games played, that changes the equation on OKC's decision making as well.

It'll be fascinating to see if teams that are locked in decide to sit some guys to keep them under 65 games as a way to avoid these potential raises and what it means for their roster building down the line. I'm not sure that would be the intention of this 65 game limit, but it is a reality that teams will have to deal with as we see more and more teams be forced to sell off pieces because of the new CBA.

All I know is that one of the best regular seasons in recent memory is poised to have an electric finish that could very well play a role in how the NBA landscape looks not just for this postseason, but over the next few years when it comes to team building. Between the seeding races, the NBA award races, and the battle for the three All NBA teams, it sure looks like we're in for a thrilling final two weeks.