Don't Look Now, But The Defending Champs Are Starting To Find Their Groove With The Playoffs On The Horizon
Brian Babineau. Getty Images.5 in a row, 9 of their last 10, 12 of their last 15.
I think it's safe to say the defending Champs have climbed out of their mid season collective slump.
If you take the largest sample above, the Celts 12-3 record is tied with OKC and LAL for the best records in the league during that stretch. The Celts own the 4th best offense, 4th best defense, and 4th best net rating during this timeframe, and during this stretch, we've seen them go on the road and beat the Cavs handily, and kick the shit out of the Knicks twice. There were some additional ass kickings of the Sixers as well, but they stink so that's not really the caliber of win it used to be.
The point is, water has found its level and as it turns out, the Celts are pretty damn good! Who could have possibly seen this coming? (anyone with a brain)
But what do I always say? Perspective is important, both in the ruts and during the stretches where you look unstoppable. This 5-0, 9-1, 12-3 stretch is very fun to watch, but just like the 12-10 stretch in January, it guarantees absolutely nothing come the playoffs. Just because the Celts are now winning, that does not mean THIS type of basketball is guaranteed to show up in the Spring the same way in reality, it was not a guarantee that the type of basketball they played during their slump would be what showed up in the playoffs despite how desperate some may have been to push that agenda.
I really can't understand why people still try to do this with regular season basketball. That's not really what happens. You can't just pick the worst stretches and say "See! This is who they'll be in the playoffs!" the same way you can't pick their best stretches and say "See! This is who they'll be in the playoffs!". It doesn't work like that.
The regular season and the playoffs are different animals. Nothing you see in December, January, or February is going to tell you how the playoffs will go. Once that starts, it's an entirely new journey with a new context around it. Things become about matchups and creating problems your opponent for that series cannot solve 4 out of 7 times, not what you did for 2 weeks in January or February.
But that is not to say the regular season doesn't matter. Far from it, it just matters for different reasons.
For the defending Champs, it's pretty simple. Work on execution, work on attacking different pressure points through a variety of styles of play, and most importantly, remain healthy. Now that they punched their 40/20 ticket, that's pretty much all that matters. Finish as high as you possibly can in terms of seeding while being cautious with minutes/rest so you can have the best chance of being healthy when it matters. Over these last 25+ games, that's really the only goal.
After taking down the Knicks for the 3rd time in 3 tries, the Celts now have a 4 game cushion on the 2 seed and the H2H tiebreaker, so that feels pretty locked in. They still trail CLE by 6 in the loss column (W7) with one more H2H to play, so that's technically still alive but given how CLE is also playing, it seems less and less likely they let go of the 1 seed barring something crazy.
But there will be plenty of time to talk about all that stuff over the stretch run. For now, let's talk about what was yet another masterclass performance from the Champs.
The Good
- Make no mistake, the Knicks made the conscious choice to blow their load of assets and essentially mortgage their future so they could compete/beat the Boston Celtics. It's not exactly a secret, they loaded up on "wings" who were "Tatum and Brown stoppers". They traded for a floor spacing center who was going to help them stay close in terms of three point shooting.
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The early results? Disaster. All this "Tatum and Brown" stopping? We haven't even come close to seeing it. It hasn't mattered of OG played or not, the results have been the same. You don't have to take my word for it, does this look like anyone is slowing down/stopping Jayson Tatum?
In his 3 games against the Knicks this season, Jayson Tatum is averaging 34/6.7/7.7 on 54/51% splits with 6.0 3PM a game. Mikal Bridges has played in all the games, OG has played in 2 of the 3. So right off the bat the entire Knicks plan of loading up on these "defensive wings" as a way to solve their Jayson Tatum problem isn't exactly making a difference.
I'm sorry if this is tough for Knicks fans to hear, but they're just too small. This isn't just a Knicks problem, it's an every team problem. Even your "best" on ball wing defender is too small for this version of Jayson Tatum. When he wants to get somewhere on the floor, he's going to get there
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Not having any type of wing defender to handle Tatum is one thing, but it's only part of the problem the Knicks can't seem to provide an answer to. Their other big name trade in KAT? He simply cannot be on the floor with Jayson Tatum. We've seen it in every single matchup this season, KAT is going to be exploited. All it takes is a simple P&R and he's cooked. In this win, Tatum was 5-8 for 13 points against KAT, and there's just no chance KAT can consistently stay in front whenever Tatum has him in space. It's a lose/lose really.
If you play for his pull up, he's going to go by you and finish at the rim because you're a slow footed enter. If you play for his drive, congrats here's a pull up 3PA in your eyeball.
So what's the solve here? As long as KAT is on the floor, Mazzulla will find a way to hunt him with Tatum. If he's also sharing the floor with Brunson? That's just too many holes you have to worry about. Add in the fact that your wings are doing nothing to limit the Celtics wings, and this is just a terrible matchup that doesn't have a clear solution.
What makes Tatum so terrifying is you are not just watching an elite scorer. He uses these mismatches and advantages against awful defenders to ALSO generate wide open looks for his teammates. We haven't even gotten to that part of the problem. When you are unable to provide consistent perimeter resistance against Jayson Tatum, you now find yourself in rotation and guess what? That means death against a team like this. Every player on the floor can shoot 3s and shoots them at a high clip.
So when you talk about this matchup in a potential playoff series, what matters is not these regular season results, but the clear problems that the Knicks legitimately do not have a solve for. Their two best players need to be on the floor for their offense, but those two players are exactly why the Knicks struggle so badly defending the Champs.
You add in an aggressive Tatum to that equation, and this is what happens.
- Like I said, this isn't just a Tatum problem. The Knicks have the exact same issue with the other Jay as well.
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A nice little 24/8/2/2 on 10-21 (2-7) for Jaylen in his 26 minutes, it's not exactly rocket science. You're just not beating the Celtics when both of the Jays are this effective AND all of the "others" are also feasting.
Just like Tatum, through 3 games we're seeing Jaylen Brown get whatever he wants in this matchup as well. He's averaging 19.7/6.0/2.7 on 341/36% splits with 2.3 3PM a night, and last night's win was another solid showing of both an inside/outside/in transition approach. As long as KAT is on the floor and is the only center, Jaylen Brown is going to get what he wants
I thought after the non-Tatum lineup led by Jaylen really struggled in the 2nd quarter, it was that same non-Tatum lineup led by Jaylen that was fantastic to open the 4th quarter to get things back on track. With the lead down to 4 at one point to open the 4th, the non-Tatum group not only punched back, they delivered the final knockout. A big part of that was Jaylen's 11 points on 5-9 shooting (0 TOs) in his 12 4th quarter minutes, and that's the beauty of having BOTH of these players. As long as one is on the court, you have the advantage.
It was also noticeable how Jaylen did not let a slow start impact his mental focus. In the first half, he wasn't all that great. Some bad TOs, inefficient, just not really good enough despite the score. The second half? A+. He led the Celts with 18 points on 8-14 (2-5) shooting, didn't turn the ball over in his 20 second half minutes, was tied for the lead in rebounds, led the team in steals, and picked up the scoring slack when Tatum's shot sort of disappeared.
- The Knicks own one of the best offenses in the NBA this season. It's actually pretty historic if you look at the metrics. Their spacing and shooting mixed with their pace have them with the 4th best offense in the NBA.
Against the Celtics?
They've scored 109 (lost by 23), 104 (lost by 27), and 104 (lost by 13, but were down 27).
They own just a 112 ORTG / 135 DRTG / -22.7 Net Rating vs the Celtics this season, which would be among the worst totals in the entire league. In fact, no opponent has had a worse defense and net rating vs BOS this entire season than the Knicks.
Call me crazy, but that seems pretty significant when your whole offseason plan was to create a team built to beat the Celtics!
- One of the ways to truly know the Celts are out of their midseason slump is the play of our beloved bald Derrick White. It seems silly to categorize him as this barometer of the entire team…..but he basically is
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A few things told us he's back to normal in this game. The first being he hit probably 2 or 3 separate grenade 3s. What I mean by that is when he's either passed the ball at the very end of the shot clock and needs to throw up a prayer, or other times where he's passed the ball but it's a shitty pass to maybe his ankles, and he catches and fires without resetting his feet.
Nobody, and I mean nobody is better at this than Derrick White. I wanted to see if the data backed up what my gut and eyes tell me, and the only real way to see something like this was to look at the 3P% at the very end of the shot clock. You have to assume that some of these plays are coming off bad passes which you would only know if you watch, but it is pretty telling.
This season, Derrick White shoots 34% in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock. That trails only Sam Hauser (36.8%) who has taken slightly fewer attempts. In total, Derrick has 38 of these types of 3PA. Of players in the entire NBA who have taken at least that many, only Malik Beasley (41) shoots a better percentage (36.6%).
So not only was the shooting a clear example of Derrick being back, there was also the whole stopping a 4-on-1 fastbreak by himself thing. There are not many humans on the planet that are capable of something like that, and for Derrick White it's actually pretty routine when he's locked in and feeling good. He's doing that as a point guard by the way, I just wanted to remind everyone.
- While it was nice to see Jrue finish 6-9 (2-4), while some may put that as the reason he feels "back", to me that evidence comes on the defensive end of the floor. I think at this point it's pretty clear Jrue has been selective in terms of emptying the tank on the defensive end this season, and for good reason. When he locks in though, it's a nice reminder of just how devastating this defense can be.
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Jalen Brunson did not score (0-3) in any of his 23 possessions vs Jrue.
Bridges was 1-5 in his 8 possessions.
KAT was 0-1 in his 10 possessions.
Just think of that for a second. Jrue clamped their best scorer and All NBA point guard. Eliminated their shooting wing from the equation, and then more than held his own against their All NBA center.
As a point guard.
So yeah, seeing him get back to hitting his corner 3s and safety valve 3s was nice and will be important moving forward, but the defense is what I truly care about because as we know, when this team's perimeter defense is elite, they blow teams out.
- Celts took the lead after about 30 seconds of game time and never gave it back. A full 48 minute ass kicking which is certainly welcomed any time, but is especially welcomed at home. These are the types of two way 48 minute performances the Celts need to start stringing together at the Garden, and this was certainly a good first step.
It's not lost on me that they wore their road green uniforms. What better way to play like you're on the road while at home than to rock your road jersey. Brilliant move that worked like a charm.
- Things just aren't going to work out for you if the Celts are taking high volume of 3s (44), shooting them at 38% (17 3PM) while also finishing with 27 AST and also winning the points in the paint battle 50-48.
When the Knicks aren't being bailed out and are forced to execute, they struggle. Only 11 FTA for either side, and this was a blowout. Why?
Mazzulla Ball.
Crushed the margins, moved the ball, shot the right amount of 3s, and took care of the basketball (10 TOs). That's it right there. That is the way.
The Bad
- It ultimately didn't matter, but not the best Pritchard showing we've ever seen in terms of shooting the basketball. A lot of pretty open misses which was a surprise, and the 1-5 (1-5) -12 in his 16 minutes was a rare off night for him. This feels like a matchup he should thrive in, but it sneaky feels like he's struggled. He's shooting just 39/36% against the Knicks this season, and seeing as how most of his looks are wide open, I'd say that's nothing to really worry about. Doesn't make it good, but it's mostly whatever.
- I'm not sure what made Tatum turn on the coasting jets in the 3rd quarter, but those 12 minutes were easily his worst of the night. A tough 1-6 (1-4) it felt like he was settling way too much for the homerun 3PM kill shot as opposed to how he played in the first 24 minutes. He was a starter worst -14 in those minutes and it was partially what allowed the Knicks to gain momentum and cut that lead down. Low percentage looks, no real aggression, no FTs, those are the types of stretches I'd like to see him avoid, especially in a matchup that has no way of stopping him.
In reality, it's those lulls that probably hurt him the most in the MVP race. While I am someone who believes Tatum should always be proactive with his 3PA, that doesn't mean there can't be a balance. It's not so much about the total as it is how those 3PA are generated, and I didn't exactly love his approach in the second half.
- I would say the same thing for Jaylen's 2nd quarter. Forced jumpers, turnovers, no FTs, and just 2-5 during those non-Tatum minutes.
In a game like last night these things may not seem like a big deal, but it's not about the Knicks. It's about avoiding these types of lulls once the playoffs start. You're not going to have a game where you never miss shots, but that doesn't mean you can't play with the right process. I thought both Jays had stretches where they went away from the right process offensively and it certainly looked pretty damn ugly.
- Mikal Bridges is so lame for being a try hard in garbage time and robbing us of another 20 point win. Congrats on hitting some 3s when nobody was trying dude. Brutal point differential hit in the last 90 seconds to put the Celts at a +9.4 on the season. Should have been a few points higher but Bridges has no shame.
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- It's Fuck Tony Brothers forever.
- Here's the thing about the Knicks. They are not ethical hoopers. They rely on baiting and fouls and flopping to be successful. Stuff like Brunson leaning into defenders and Josh Hart doing shit like this
What ever happened to the flopping tech? We're just not doing that anymore?
Meanwhile, on the other end, you have ethical hoopers
Who do we think the Basketball Gods reward?
The Ugly
- By now you should know the rule. Win 5 in a row and we get to skip this section, as a treat.
Looking ahead, Celts have a B2B against TOR/DET before their last showdown against the Cavs on Friday. I'd like to see them not overlook those two teams and play with the same type of effort/execution we've seen for about the last month now, because this is not the time to start dropping games you shouldn't be losing. The Pistons are no joke and the Raptors already beat BOS this year, so maintaining focus will be important.
They do that? The good times will continue to roll. It's that simple.