What To Watch Out For During The NBA's Stretch Run Now That Everyone Will Finally Get Serious
Finally, actual NBA basketball returns to our lives after what has felt like 86 years since the league went on break. There are only so many debates you can have about All Star Weekend issues and who the next face of the NBA is going to be, two topics that have been talked about to death but pop up every time there's some sort of basketball stoppage. Given what we've seen these last few days, basketball discourse desperately needs the games to return.
The good news is it's largely accepted that we are now at the point of the NBA calendar when teams and players "start to try". They say the NBA season starts after the All Star Break and well, welcome to after the All Star Break. With around 27-28 games remaining, it's a sprint to the finish for pretty much every single team in the league, even the tanking ones. I figured what better time than now to have a bit of a primer on what's going on for the home stretch, so first and foremost let's take a look at where everyone stands as the games kick back off
You may remember this time last year, the only team that had any sort of legit separation from everyone else was the eventual champion Celtics who had a double digit lead on their conference and around a 7+ game lead on the entire league.
This year, we have a similar situation where one team is clearly a lock for the #1 seed (OKC), and the other (CLE) has a sizeable lead with one more H2H against BOS later this month. For the sake of this blog, I think we can pencil in both OKC/CLE in at the top spots of their conference barring something pretty insane or a big time injury.
The beauty of the stretch run though is the possible chaos of what can happen below those two top teams. Outside of the 1 seeds, I view everything else as generally up for grabs. The Knicks have some work to do to get into the 2 spot given they've lost both H2Hs already vs BOS, but that door isn't closed just yet. In the West, as you can see everyone is also jumbled together outside of OKC.
So what should you be looking out for if you're one of those people who generally don't start watching NBA basketball until this time of year when players "get serious"? Here are a few things to keep your eye on
The race to 40/20
If you haven't noticed by now, I put an extreme amount of importance on securing Phil Jackson's 40/20 rule (winning your 40th game before you're 20th loss). You don't have to, but I think you'd be foolish not to. The last like 50+ years of NBA history tell you that checking off this box is very important for any team that wants to consider themselves a true title contender.
While checking off that box does not guarantee you will win the title, not checking off the box pretty much means you're going to need a statistical anomaly in order to reach the top of the mountain. Again, that's not me saying it, that's NBA history saying it. So where do things stand?
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If we look at their next handful of games, here is what each of the remaining teams in the field have in front of them as they try and check this box
BOS: @PHI/NYK/@TOR/@DET
NYK: CHI/@CLE/@BOS/PHI/@MEM
MEM: @IND/@ORL/@CLE/PHX/NYK
DEN: CHA/LAL/@IND/@MIL
I think most will agree it'd be fairly shocking to see the Celts go 0-4 out of the break, and their winning 7 of their final 8 heading into the All Star Break did wonders for their 40/20 chances.
The Knicks' schedule is pretty tough seeing as how they need to go 4-1, with 3 of their next 5 both on the road and against teams that are .500 or better. The concern exists because the Knicks are just 11-12 this season when facing "good" teams and 25-6 against everyone else. It could get dicey for them considering if you assume they beat CHI/PHI, they can only afford one loss in the CLE/BOS/MEM group. So far this season, they are a combined 1-3 against those teams.
I'd put those same concerns on the Grizzlies. They're just 13-15 against "good" teams, and their schedule might not have a single under .500 team on it should PHX win their first two out of the break. Not only that, the Grizzlies are just 15-12 on the road, with 3 of their next 5 being away from home. That's tough.
Then there's the Nuggets. Arguably the hottest team in the league entering the break (W8), and to hit 40/20 they were going to have to win 12 in a row. They're healthy, playing well, and their schedule is certainly something that potentially works in their favor. Granted the tough part about needing to go 4-0 is that one bad night kills you, but it does feel like the Nuggets are a bit of a sleeping giant in the West. That may sound silly since they are just 0.5 games out of a top 2 seed, but as their defense continues to improve and guys like Jamal Murray start looking like a player that has played basketball before, I do think it changes how you have to view them. Should they run the table and check off 40/20, it wouldn't shock me if they found a way to win the West.
So how do I think things shake out? I think we add BOS/DEN to the 40/20 list, which gives us a group of OKC/CLE/BOS/DEN, a group that I think everyone would agree would have a legit shot at a title.
These Are Not The Pistons Of Old
Normally, if someone were to tell you that over the last 27 games you should be making an effort to watch Detroit Pistons basketball, people would think you needed to be committed. The thing is, they're sneaky good. For years now I think a lot of people have been waiting for the Pistons to "take a leap", and as you can see in the standings pic above, we're getting it.
I understand that heading into the season you may not have paid much attention to what was going on with them. I'll just tell you, watch Cade Cunningham. He's the real deal
We live in a world where it's not totally impossible for the Pistons to enter the playoffs with homecourt advantage. Think of that sentence! A team that went 14-68 just a season ago could very well enter the playoffs playing at home. That's pretty cool.
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They've done it by making small, but noticeable progress. Offensively, they've gone from 27th to 15th. Defensively, 25th to 12th. Cade has taken a leap, Jalen Duren is a double-double machine, Malik Beasley set the franchise record for 3PM and is having a legit 6MOY type of season. We've seen them go from a pesky team that you can't overlook or they'll beat you, to knocking on the door of a top 4 seed. This is sort of what happens to JB Bickerstaff teams in Year 1. This type of "leap" has existed in pretty much every team he's coached, and given how dark the recent times have been for the Pistons, do yourself a favor and tune into their games for the stretch run. Not only is the team pretty good, but almost all of their games are close and chaotic at the end.
All Eyes Are On Jimmy Butler And Golden State
This one goes without saying right? You could make the case that few teams in the NBA have more pressure on them from here on out than the Warriors. They finally pulled the trigger and brought in some help for Steph, they won 3 out of 4 heading into the break with Butler looking like a natural fit, and now we have both Draymond and Butler talking about winning rings
Meanwhile, it's not even a lock that the Warriors even make the playoffs. They are actually close to being in the Lottery than they are a Top 6 seed, so a lot of the hype around their finish is mostly what "could" happen. Can they dig out of the top 6? If not, will we see them try and manipulate the Play In standings so they can avoid a certain matchup?
A lot of how many think the West will shake out is based on the Warriors actually making the dance, but that is certainly no guarantee given the hole they put themselves in before the break. Remember, they do get Jonathan Kuminga back at some point, but they may need to have a near-perfect finish just to get out of the Play In.
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The Suns could end up ruining someone's season
At 26-28 and going just 1-6 so far in February, it's certainly an uphill climb for the Suns. Not only do they have ground to make up just to get into the Play In, but they also have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the NBA
So why pay any attention to a team that most likely won't even make the Play In? Well, as it turns out, should the Suns remain healthy, there's a strong chance they could end up impacting what seeding looks like for everyone else. Just look at their March to the end of the season
Given how close things are in the standings, the Suns absolutely could play the spoiler role, even if their own playoff chances are cooked. I'd say about 95% of those opponents are not only good, but also are in a bit of a seeding battle themselves, and as long as KD is on the court anything is possible. Given how important matchups are in a playoff series, we very well may find ourselves in a situation where a team loses to PHX and then that shifts where they are in the playoff bracket/their playoff path.
Do I think the Suns go on a run and get in? Not really, but I do think they are the perfect spoiler candidate as long as their main guys are healthy down the stretch.
The MVP race
Depending on who your favorite player/team is, you may or may not think the MVP race is locked up. Personally, I think we're at the point where it may not matter what Jokic does on the floor or what his team does, he's now fighting the SGA narrative battle. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.
While it might also be unfair, there's going to be a whole lot of eyeballs on the DEN/OKC back to back next month. It shouldn't impact MVP voting seeing as how it's a single B2B in an 82 game season, but we all know how this stuff works. It's a what have you done for me lately type of award/narrative.
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In terms of the H2H battle, things have been even for the most part. SGA was better in the OKC win, Jokic better in the DEN win. I will say it's a tough break that both of these games are in OKC if you're a Nuggets fan, but I think we can all agree that set of games might be the most highly anticipated matchups of the entire second half (should everyone be healthy and play).
Fine, I'll mention the Lakers
Much like all eyes are on GS, the same is true for the Lakers. When you make a massive trade like that, how you finish the season matters. Many think the Lakers are the darkhorse in the West, Luka's minutes restriction should be coming to an end here shortly, and I think you'd be lying if you said you weren't at least somewhat interested in seeing how all this works out.
Given how close they are to the Play In, it's not like the Lakers can coast to the finish line. The Rockets slide into the ASB opened the path for a potential top 4 seed for LA, and there is a world where we get LAL/LAC in the first round in the 4/5 matchup which would be pretty cool.
So far seeing Luka in Lakers colors has been a little weird for my brain
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and while I promise you nobody despises this franchise more than yours truly, even I can admit I'm going to watch them. When you pull off arguably the biggest trade in sports history, there's definitely pressure on you right away for things to work. Either this is going to be the next great Lakers move, or things are going to crumble in disaster. That may seem dramatic, but it's honestly the reality of their situation.
Will their center issue be a problem down the stretch? How many games can LeBron play? Are we about to get an ultimate Fuck You Luka Tour? It's all on the table.
The point is, now that we've arrived at the part of the schedule where everyone involved starts to consistently care and put forth a more consistent level of effort, the stage is set for the best basketball of the season. The storylines are there, the close seeding is there, all we can do is hope for good health for everyone and as much chaos as possible. Given how this season as gone up until that point, that feels like where we're headed.