"We Are Going To Win The Championship" - The Warriors Must Be Back Because Draymond Green Is Back To Writing Checks That Steph Curry Will Have To Cash

Stacy Revere. Getty Images.

While almost all the takes today coming out of the NBA's All Star Weekend are what a disaster the entire thing ended up being, at this point I think we've all said everything that can be said about the game, the production, the format etc. It was brutal, we all agree (even if the tournament idea wasn't completely awful and the basketball itself was fine).

So instead I'd like to focus on something else that went on during the festivities that I do think is worth taking a moment and dissecting. 

Before the break, there were several signs that the Warriors were now "back" after pulling off the Jimmy Butler trade. The Warriors finished the stretch after the trade deadline 3-1 with their only loss being a 4 point defeat to the Mavs, but watching them play it was easy to see how re-energized everyone was. Jimmy Butler brought exactly what the Warriors needed (playmaking, paint scoring, FTs, toughness etc) which was to be expected since this is the honeymoon phase of the Jimmy Butler Experience (we'll revisit in 1.5 years when it's time to renew his deal), Steph has looked as good as ever which naturally changes the conversations around what this team might be capable of should they stay alive and actually make the Playoffs in the Spring. 

But there's also another sign that the Warriors may be "back" and that comes from Draymond Green last night during the TV broadcast

Draymond Green is writing checks that Steph Curry is going to have to cash? A tale as old as time. To me, this is how I know the Warriors are truly back because make no mistake, if the Warriors are going to win the championship, it's going to be because Steph Curry has one more generational run in him, similar to what we saw in 2022. Sure Jimmy Butler may be able to play that 2022 Andrew Wiggins role, but as someone who lived through that run, it all came down to Steph.

While Curry played it off about as well as you could given the circumstances

I think even he knows what an uphill climb the Warriors do face. The Butler trade makes this interesting for sure if you want to talk about potential matchups, but you also have to remember where the Warriors are starting this climb from.

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When you look back at NBA history, there are certain season long traits you can look at that almost every champion has

1. Hit the 40/20 rule

2. Are a top 3 seed

3. An SRS over +3.0 (point differential based on strength of schedule)

If you're curious, OKC and CLE are the only teams that have this locked up already. The Celtics need 1 more win, and NYK, MEM, and DEN all are still alive but are a handful of wins away.

For the Warriors, this is a snapshot of what things will look like once the games resume next week

As you can see, they will not qualify for the 40/20 club seeing as how they have over 20 losses before securing their 40th win. Sitting in the 10th seed, you are also not looking at a top 3 seed. In terms of their SRS? Just +1.17. The number to pay attention to is the number of losses, and as it stands now they need to make up 4 in the loss column to catch the Clippers. The unfortunate part is GS is 0-3 vs LAC, so really they need to beat that record, so look at it more like a 5 loss gap.

With only 27 games left, that's a challenge.

Here's the good news. The Clippers have the 5th toughest schedule remaining out of all 30 teams in the NBA. That's a window that potentially could be opened should a team like the Warriors handle their business. They're dealing with the 22nd toughest schedule, and let's say they can sustain this 3 out of 4 pace with their new look team. That's still not getting them to 50 wins (48 to be exact). Is that going to get you top 6? 

If you look at the other teams in the Play In, any one of those teams can get hot on any given night and beat this version of the Warriors. The same way GS could go out and run the Play In table. That's why you want to avoid the thing altogether because, in the NBA, weird shit can happen. One random dude goes 6-9 from 3P and your season is over before you can even process what happened. One cold shooting start and you're cooked. 

Say the Warriors make it out of the top 6 and their reward is Nikola Jokic? Or, say they win the 7 seed and their reward is still Jokic? The difference between the 2-3 seeds is so close, those positions could be flip-flopping all the way to the end of the season where maybe teams start to position themselves for playoff matchups. I'm just saying, there's a strong chance GS has to deal with Jokic in a 7 game series, and that just does not seem like something that works in their favor.

So big picture, when you see that the Warriors haven't hit any of the major benchmarks of a champion this season, then you combine it with their potential playoff path, it seems hard to imagine that team is going to win 4 playoff rounds. It's just not something that has ever happened in NBA history.

But that's the beauty of Steph Curry. That's the appeal of the unknown with this group. It's not as if this specific collection of Warriors put up those season long stats that were pretty mediocre and certainly not championship caliber. It's entirely possible that this team as newly constructed would have hit all the metrics had they played a full year together, so that does have to be factored in when talking about this team's playoff ceiling. We know Steph Currt is the type of demon that can win 4 rounds, but I'll remind you that the 2022 Warriors hit 40/20, were the 3rd seed, and had an SRS of +5.52. They checked off all the boxes.

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Draymond thinks that's what this current team is capable of. If he's right, then his proclamation isn't out of the realm of possibility. If they aren't, then NBA history says better luck next year.