The Latest NBA MVP Straw Poll Is Out And It's Officially A Two Man Race To The Finish

Jamie Schwaberow. Getty Images.

Now that we're all the All Star Break, it's a great time to check in on what should be a rather hectic race to the finish like for the NBA's MVP. Teams have played 54-55 games, cases are pretty much set in stone, narratives have been decided, and now the only thing left to do is have extremely toxic NBA debates based on who your favorite player is. 

While there are constant updates throughout the year like NBA.com's MVP tracker and Basketball Reference's season long MVP tracker that's based on previous voting, what I always find the most interesting and what to put the most stock into is ESPN's MVP Straw Poll. It polls 100s of people in NBA circles and gives us a great look at how votes are leaning at the different stages of the season. 

Today, the most recent edition was released, so let's have a look

OK, before we dive in I have to just say something real quick. Whoever that person was that voted Jokic 3rd in the MVP race should be publicly shamed. I mean what are we doing? You want to put him 2nd? Fine, no issue there. But 3rd? Don't be an asshole.

The bigger takeaway of course is that anyone trying to suggest this race is anything other than SGA vs Jokic is simply refusing to accept reality. You can argue all you want about 3-5, but that's all semantics to me. What matters in this poll is the race at the top, and given that gap between SGA/Jokic I think it sheds light on how inconsistent this award tends to be from season to season.

Let's be very, very clear here. It's hard to argue against either guy winning it. That's what makes it such an interesting race. I think where the issue comes into play is because there's so much inconsistency from year to year, what's most valuable changes.

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SGA's case is pretty simple. His team is 44-10, he leads the NBA in scoring, his advanced metrics are all awesome, and he's having arguably the best guards season since 2016 Steph if not all of NBA history. Seems pretty clear right?

Here's the thing. Just last season we were told that being the best player on the best team doesn't really matter. In previous years when Jokic won his MVPs, he was not the best player on the best team. So why should that now matter for SGA? Not only that, OKC technically doesn't have the best record in the NBA seeing as how the Cavs are also 44-10. At the same time, it should not be ignored what SGA was able to do carrying the Thunder while Chet/Hartenstein were out, but there are issues with that as well. The Thunder are largely considered to have one of the top rosters in the NBA. Many consider them to have the deepest roster in the NBA, and they are led by the current defending Coach Of The Year. To suggest those factors also didn't contribute to the Thunder overcoming their injuries and that it was just all SGA is a bit disingenuous in my opinion. If in previous seasons having a good team around the MVP candidate combined with an elite coach was held against their MVP case, why is the same not true for SGA? Yes, Chet is extremely valuable, they were missing Hartenstein etc, but that stuff is also true with what's going on in Denver (Aaron Gordon injury).

Which brings us to the Jokic argument case. While SGA is having a historic season for a guard, Jokic is having one of the greatest overall seasons in NBA history, regardless of position. It's not like he's only having the best season ever for a center, he's having a top 3 season of everyone. In the NBA's entire history. Offensively, there may not be a more dominant player to ever walk the earth, and we shouldn't exactly thumb our nose up on a dude averaging a triple double as a center shooting like 60% from the floor and being among the league leaders in 3P%. 

Much like SGA, Jokic's advanced numbers are all there, his counting stats are all there, and now with the Nuggets starting to win at a good clip, they're knocking on the door of a top 2 seed. This is a Nugget team that does NOT have the roster depth and talent that OKC does, they've dealt with injuries to their top players (Gordon, Murray a little bit), and they're currently on a 53 win pace. The question then becomes, is it more impressive that the Nuggets win 53+ games and finish a 2 seed, or for the Thunder to be doing what they've done so far? Both teams were the #1 and #2 seeds last year so it's not like either made some sort of massive rise up the standings this season. 

So when you lay it all out and then look at that straw poll results gap, it's hard to think there isn't voter fatigue/narrative play at work here. It does sort of feel like no matter what either player does, things have been decided. I look at NBA.com's live weekly tracker, and immediately coming off a game in which SGA was 6-21 and lost by 15 on the road, his 2nd 30% shooting game this month, his status atop the list did not change. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 8 in a row, Jokic has been the best and most productive player in the league during this span, and it didn't matter.

I mean, that's voter fatigue at play. If what you do on the court isn't going to impact how people in real time rank the MVP, then what's the point?

Now, you have Nuggets fans making similar claims that Giannis/Embiid fans were making during their battles for MVP. Since the record argument is done, now it's about having a never before seen historic season. Well, there have been years Giannis had a never before seen historic season, and no Nuggets fan would have admitted that he should have won those MVPs. But now that the shoe is on the other foot, they now care about that specific narrative.

What makes this trick is suggesting SGA is only getting these votes because of a narrative or voter fatigue would be inaccurate. He has a more than valid case. But it does feel like those things are what have created that buffer in this latest straw poll. There does seem to be momentum to crown a new MVP and find any reason to not give Jokic another one, despite him having an even more historic season. Now things that didn't matter for other MVP candidates are now deciding factors for SGA. That feels a little messed up, but is also understandable.

It's very possible that this entire race comes down to these two games 

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All we can hope for is that Jokic plays both games of this B2B. Hopefully things are close enough in the standings for DEN to where he's basically forced to play, because right now things are 1-1 in terms of Jokic vs SGA in their head to head battles. SGA was better in their win, Jokic better in his. 

But as of now, it's clear. This is a two man race and that's not changing anytime soon.