At Least One NFL GM is Convinced Tee Higgins is Signing With the Patriots

Nick Grace. Getty Images.

Predicting human behavior is always a fool's errand. Especially when the subject is NFL free agency, which has variables all over the place. Where rational decision-making is combined with factors like money, opportunity, loyalty, comfort level, the chance to win, and the most unpredictable element of all, emotion. When all those are put into the blender and you hit the "Puree" button, there's no telling what's going to come out of it.

But sometimes there's no reason to overthink things. Where it's obvious all the variables match up. The puzzle pieces fit. The planets align. And the free agent in question lines up with just the right team for him. 

And that's the case with the Patriots and Tee Higgins. Let us count the ways. For one, he's going to be very much available, and he knows it:

Yes, technically, the Bengals could Franchise him. Again. But the history of teams preventing a popular player from being able to finally secure the long term deal he's been looking for is awful. It tends to breed more resentment than it's worth and rip the fabric of a team to shreds. Besides, Cincy is sailing into the rough seas of the final year of the rookie deals of both Ja'Marr Chase, who'll set a record with his next deal, and Trey Hendrickson, who just led the NFL in sacks by a mile. So even with $46 million in cap space, they've got tough decisions to make.

You know who doesn't have tough decisions to make? Mike Vrabel. Well, aside from this one:

The Patriots have two things every thief needs to pull off a successful heist: Motive and opportunity. And according to one anonymous NFL general manager, not spending much in free agency last year gave the Patriots both:

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Per:  @JasonLaCanfora

“Multiple executives I spoke with predicted Higgins will land at least $30 million per season. “I think he’s going to New England,” the first GM said. Patriots owner Robert Kraft “took a lot of s--- for not spending any money, rightfully so, and I hear they really want this guy.” 

While Higgins' current team has $46 million to spend and huge contract extensions to take care of, the Patriots have $119.8 million and no significant pending free agents to keep. As in, none at all. Pete Prisco of CBS listed his Top 100, and there's not one Patriots name on it. Which is both the product of extending guys like Christian Barmore a year early, and the unintended benefit of having an untalented roster. To save you from clicking the link, I'll note that Higgins is No. 2, behind only Sam Darnold.

To put that $119.8 million in perspective, according to Over the Cap the team with the second most space is Las Vegas at $92.5 million. By my Weymouth Public Schools math, that's a difference of 29.5%. So the opportunity is most definitely New England's.

As far as motive, it couldn't be more obvious. Even with the midseason emergence of Drake Maye, the Pats finished dead last in net passing yards. Their leading receiver was Hunter Henry. Austin Hooper was fourth and Antonio Gibson was sixth. Combined, all their wideouts combined for less than 52% of their receiving yards. To quote Jerod Mayo (now there's a thing I don't preface too many sentences with), the word "receiver" is right in their job title. And they didn't do enough of it. 

Which is a huge part of the sales pitch they can use to convince Higgins this is the right place for him. After spending the last four seasons as Chase's Bucky Barnes, he'd get to come to Foxboro and be the unquestioned Captain America. To not just be Maye's No. 1 option, but his Nos. 1 through probably 3. With Henry and maybe Kayshon Boutte as his sidekicks. And be on the receiving end of dimes like the ones Maye connected on Boutte with:

All while helping Maye and Vrabel bring this franchise back into playoff contention. And, because it's not all about feelings but also business, get paid handsomely by a team that can afford him. A motivated buyer that recognizes when you've gone 8-26, you have to overpay for talent. Especially talent that won't even turn 27 until the middle of the 2025 postseason, when his new team will hopefully still be playing. 

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It's just too perfect a fit not to have it happen. Vrabel, Eliot Wolf, Mr. Kraft, make this so.