The Way Too Early Tiering Of NFL QBs Going Into The 2025 Offseason
First off, lets see how I did with last years tiering.
Rodgers note I thought he was going to hang em up last Feb
Pretty much nailed it across the board with a few exceptions. Dak (8 GP), Lawrence (10 GP) and Tua (11 GP) obviously missed time which dragged them down. I think Darnold did nothing but prove that he is, in fact, a backup you want while Baker benefited quite a bit from being the top dog in the worst division in football. Only other fuck up was that Will Levis should have been rotting in the HELL Tier.
So now, lets look ahead to next year. So, for this exercise, keep in mind that it's zeroed in on the QBs individual talent. Basically, which QB would perform the best in a full year with the same exact roster, coaches, etc. It helps level the playing field for a player like Hurts vs Herbert.
Recency bias will have people pissy at Mahomes after laying a dud but he is still 1.1 in this league.Is any team in the league declining a 1-for-1 trade for a 29 year old that can do the things he does? No.
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The A-tier is also the same as last year as well. Jackson benefited from one of the best overall rosters in football this year but he is still an all-world game-breaker. Allen won an MVP with WR1 Khalil Shakir (not to discount the Bills extremely good O-line). Burrow put up MVP-level numbers fighting against his own defense and Herbert got put up one of the most efficient QB seasons ever despite having a single working receiver and one of the worst O-lines in the league (LG-C-RG was putrid) which was brutally exposed in that WC matchup.
B-tier has a few changes. Philly fans, I love the Eagles for taking down the satanist forces of Kansas City so don't take this the wrong way with Hurts. It's just still so hard to evaluate him as a next-level player for reasons out of his control. I go back to a blog I did a few months ago about the 2020 QB class. Since getting into the league, Hurts has had arguably the best supporting cast in the NFL. Offensive line, run game, receivers, are all next level which help his success as an individual and their defense helps him on a team success level. This cast also ensures that he doesn't have to do as much for his team to succeed. Where Burrow has to put up historic numbers to dig his team out a hole his defense dug, Hurts rarely has to go the extra mile which means his numbers never look as impressive. I think you can have the same conversation with Goff the last couple of years too. All-world O-line, great receivers, elite run game. Does any player in the A-tier perform worse than Hurts or Goff if they had that roster?
Baker played his ass off this year so he deserved a step up. Love didn't make the leap I expected but he still has shown the ability to do things a lot of other QBs cant. Lastly, Jayden. I really hesitate throwing a rookie up into the top 3 tiers only because of how many QBs run into sophomore slumps after a year of film is thrown out there. But Jayden just has that next level to him. Smart, great arm and just lucky too.
C-tier has a few changes as well. Stafford is starting to show some wear and tear but he has that veteran processing power that isn't going away. Plus, I'll always lean back on how much actual NFL players respect his game. Like I predicted before the season, CJ hit a sophomore slump. Worse completion percentage, fewer yards and TDs, more INTs. Still good enough to spam Nico Collins and beat the piss out of the Chargers, though. Tua is still Tua. Body made of glass, pretty inconsistent, won't be in the league within a few years (medical, not skill). Kyler is also a weird case. Sometimes, he makes plays that only he an Lamar can do. Most of the time, though, he looks average.
D-Tier has a few new entries. Purdy was in that Hurts/Goff convo and got exposed during their roster struggles this year. You could argue the same thing about Darnold. O-line was top-10 in the regular season even after losing Darrisaw, great receiving core, elite defense. Geno is still very efficient and this will be a defining season for Dak. Rodgers is going to look gross in silver & black for his final year but he can still make a couple of insane throws when he needs to. I think Nix will have a bit of a slump but Denver's O-line was ranked #1 on the year and their defense #3, so maybe the team takes a step up?
E-Tier features 3 QBs where I feel we know their ceilings in Lawrence, Wilson and Young. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, only one of them has the second biggest contract in the NFL. Caleb was very up and down but, considering the horror stories about Waldron and Eberflus (which is prob just PR bullshit), I'm pretty optimistic about him. Maye and Penix both looked solid but the sample size is just too small.
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If your starting QB is on this graphic, you're in really bad shape. Kirk and Carr both look to be at the end of the road, Dimes is praying for a Darnold situation this offseason and I don't know what the fuck Richardson's deal is. I like a good gunslinger but Jesus Christ. On the Hell side, I'm very curious what ends up happening with Watson. The Browns money is fucked either way so do they draft whomever and dump him? Sit him? Can't trade him so what happens?
The rookie QBs will also be interesting this season. Ward and Sanders will probably be day-one starters but maybe Dart sneaks in there too? Who knows.