After Another 4th Quarter Collapse, The Celtics Are Currently Stuck In A Groundhog Day Cycle Of Mediocrity

Boston Globe. Getty Images.

Hmm let's see, how would I best describe the latest extremely frustrating home loss? After giving it some thought, I'd say this sums it up perfectly

This was not quite like the recent Raptors loss or the Hawks loss in the sense that it was a bad loss to a bad team, the Rockets are certainly no slouch. Now 31-14 on the season with a +5.8 and a team that just took down the Cavs twice in 3 days and is 16-6 on the road, this was a highly entertaining game between two great teams.

But losing to a "good team" doesn't mean this wasn't another excruciating collapse where we watched the Celtics fumble away yet another winnable game on their home floor. Down 3 rotation players, their margin for error was slim, and it was a night where you simply had to execute on both ends of the floor. When you're down White/Horford/Hauser, you don't have the same type of cushion to have prolonged stretches of poor execution on both ends, and that's especially true when you're playing one of the better teams in the league who is motivated as hell after the Celts blew them out a few weeks ago (without Amen/Tari).

And if it feels like we're living in Groundhog Day, it's because we sort of are. This month has given us two separate West Coast trips, where we saw the Celts complete both 3-1, winning their final game and returning home to face a feisty Western Conference team. How do we think things went? You tell me if this feels familiar

3-1 on both trips, won the final game in both, returned home, and gave up 114 points to a Western Conference team in a loss. 

Giphy Images.

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What makes those SAC/HOU losses even similar is they pretty much went the exact same way. Both were close through 3 quarters, with the Celts having a 2 point 4th quarter lead against the Kings and a 4 point lead against the Rockets. In each, we saw a complete collapse in the 4th to blow the game. The Kings won their quarter 38-21 and the Rockets won theirs 29-23. In both of those games, we saw the Celts get outshot from 3 by both percentage and volume, with the Kings taking 47 3PA to the Celts 41 and the Rockets 41 to the Celts 35. 

In that SAC loss? 15 TOs. In this HOU loss? 14 TOs. 

In that SAC loss? Tatum was 5-13 with 8 TOs. In this HOU loss? He went 5-14 with 3 TOs.

So if this all feels like we're trapped in this weird circle of hell recently, it's because we sneaky kind of are. The same way the LAL blowout after 5 in 7 nights coming off an OT win was the same as what we saw vs MIL in 2024, we literally lived this exact game earlier this month when coming off the same type of West Coast trip.

I'm not sure what that all means, but I do know it is not good enough. 

And while we are all waiting for the Celts to do something other than "win one lose one", that requires them to stop playing mediocre basketball. It's not exactly a surprise that when you play mediocre and inconsistent basketball, you get mediocre and inconsistent results. Just look at their last handful of losses. No show against the Raptors by not getting a single stop. Fumble the Hawks loss because you can't hold onto the ball for 20 seconds with a lead. A game like last night, you blow a 12 point 4th quarter lead by going nearly 4 minutes without a single point.

That's stuff mediocre teams do. You have to finish games, period. That means executing offensively and defensively to put a game away. That means finishing off defensive possessions cleanly by rebounding and not allowing extra possessions. That means taking care of the ball offensively and converting on your open looks. That means playing smart when things get tight.

Since returning from that first West Coast trip in early January, that is not what we've seen. In fact, it's been the opposite, which is how you get to a 5-5 record over your last 10 games.

Alright, let's dive in.

The Good

- If there's one player who I think has played his way into being excluded from this shitfest, it's Kristaps Porzingis. Yet another game where he went out and did his part. He's been vocal about their play recently and the fact that he continues to go out and back it up with solid two way play pretty much gives him immunity from everything we're about to talk about later in this blog.

An efficient 6-8 (3-4) in his 25 minutes since he had to deal with foul trouble all night, he also led the team in rebounds and was tied for the lead in blocks. A good mix of inside/outside scoring, there's really not anything to complain about in KPs minutes, and the fact is he's been extremely consistent since his return in early January. This is the KP the Celts are going to need when the games truly matter, and while it is very frustrating that they are wasting these KP performances with losses, it is encouraging to see him catch his rhythm.

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I'll take 19/7/2 on 50/49% splits with 2.6 3PA, and most importantly, KP has been available. The only games KP has missed since his return on 1/3 are the scheduled B2Bs, which is another reason why it's annoying they are dropping these games. Every moment KP is healthy and available is basically borrowed time, so they need to figure out a way to maximize these opportunities because KP is certainly doing his part.

- I know he was involved in the two biggest mistakes of the game, but I think we also need to give Luke Kornet some credit for his spot start. With Horford being ruled out 2 minutes before the game, Kornet slid in and gave this team 18/7 on 8-9 shooting in his 33 minutes. It wasn't always pretty, but given that he's the 3rd center on the roster, Kornet most definitely gave this team enough.

That doesn't excuse the mental mistakes late, but again, overall Luke was more than solid. The Queta and Tillman minutes were mostly a disaster, and with KP in foul trouble and Al out, there was even more pressure on Luke to produce, and he rose to the occasion. Brutal ending, but a really strong showing for the rest of his 33 minutes.

- After being in what looked to be a coma in the first half, I thought the way Jayson Tatum came out in the 3rd quarter was what ultimately swung the game heading into the 4th. He was aggressive in terms of attacking doubles, he finally hit a fucking shot, he got to the line, you know, he basically looked like Tatum

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The first half? Well, we'll talk about that in a minute. But his 15 points in the 3rd quarter while playing all 12 minutes felt like the tides were turning.

In fact, everyone who touched the floor was pretty damn good in that frame

I'd also say that I had little to no problems with his 4th quarter either. Once the game was close it was clear Ime was going to take the ball out of his hands, and I thought Tatum did a great job being patient, reading the defense, and finding the open guy since the Rockets were now in rotation. Those players didn't make their open looks, but that does not mean the process was bad or Tatum made poor decisions with the ball. He had the ball to initiate about 98% of the offensive possessions in the 4th and I don't think he made a single bad decision with the ball. There were some execution issues like the fumbled lob TO to Queta, but the way he split the double and read that pass was the correct play. 

When it came time to make a high-leverage bucket at the end of the game, Tatum didn't settle for a low percentage jumper, instead choosing to use his size and strength to finish at the rim and tie things with 5 seconds left.

- I'd say the same thing about Jaylen's 1-3rd quarters. Early in this game, it was KP and Jaylen's offense that kept the Celts attached while Tatum didn't have a bucket. They combined for 31 of the 52, and through 3 quarters Jaylen was solid

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The issue of course, is that NBA games are 48 minutes long. You do not just play 3 quarters, and unfortunately as good as Jaylen was early, that's how brutal he was late. It all goes back to execution. Whether that's Tatum throwing a lob in the 4th or Jaylen missing 5 straight clean looks down the stretch, the execution was simply not there when they needed it most.

Keeping them attached early was important, but it is also important to rise to the occasion and execute in high leverage situations when the game is in balance. 

- On a night where the "others" were going to have to be efficient to make up for the collection of shooting that did not play,  I thought Payton Pritchard more than did his part. The only real bench scorer available, Pritchard responded with an efficient 5-7 (5-6) for 15/4/3 in his 30 minutes. 

He was one of the few players to actually hit a shot in the 4th, and I'll admit, when he made his 2 3PM in that frame I thought those were enough to push them over the hump. You just don't see the Celts lose too many games in which Pritchard goes 5-6 from deep. Usually in games like this when shooters are out, it's the games Pritchard goes 1-7 that the Celts lose. 

Considering he had 15 of the bench's 22 points and all non-Pritchard bench players went a combined 2-10 (1-7), it's hard to be too upset with what he gave in his expanded role.

The Bad

- Alright, where do we want to start? I'd like to begin with the defense if that's OK with everyone. What do we always say? If you don't defend, you die. Well, you tell me if you think this is acceptable defense.

1. Allowed 114 points

2. Allowed 44/41% splits 

3. Allowed 17 3PM

4. Allowed 21 FTA

5. Allowed 12 OREB and 12 2nd chance points

6. Forced only 7 TOs

7. Allowed at least 29 points in 3 of the 4 quarters

In the biggest stretch of the game, when the Celts had built their lead and their offense went dry, what happened? To make matters worse, the Celts could not get a stop to save their lives. Make no mistake, their offense was good enough in this game.

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To do all that with the players you were missing against an elite defense is more than good enough. But you HAVE to guard your yard. You have to play with energy and you have to execute. If you don't, your offense will not matter. We see it time and time again. If you don't defend, you die.

Watching the effort level on some of these plays by the best players, how would anyone argue that was acceptable defense?

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Lazy fighting through screens, lazy point of attack defense with zero resistance on the perimeter, lazy closeouts. No shit the Rockets couldn't miss, you or I could make the quality of shots the Celts were giving up!

Of the Rockets 41 total 3PA, only 2 were tracked as "tight" coverage. That is beyond pathetic and is effort more than scheme in my opinion.

- Speaking of their 41 3PA, I wonder if people FINALLY understand why 3P volume is so important. Just look at their last two games. Against the Mavs in a blowout, the Celts took 50 3PA and won with ease. Last night? They were once again outshot at home, only put up 35 3PA and lost. 

35 3PA would rank 25th in the NBA. On a night when the Celts were shooting great (38%), their inability to generate and take enough 3PA proved to be costly. Meanwhile, the Rockets won the math battle and ultimately won the game. It's not exactly complicated.

- What a complete and utter disaster the deep bench was in this game. It started with the Tillman/Queta minutes, but as a whole the entire group of Tillman/Walsh/Queta/Springer/Peterson gave this team next to nothing, which could not happen in a game like this.

I'm not sure what Joe was trying to accomplish with the Queta/Tillman pairing in the 1st quarter, the spacing was awful and Tillman is quite literally unplayable right now. Every time he touches the floor, nothing good ever happens. He doesn't rebound, he can't shoot, he can't guard switches, pretty much all the reasons he's on this roster he's been unable to provide in his limited minutes.

Things weren't all that much better in the Kornet/Queta pairings in the 2nd quarter either, mostly again due to spacing issues. Then when guys like Springer/Walsh/Tillman/Peterson got their open looks, they mostly bricked (Springer made one). 

- At this point, it'll be a shock when the Celts play a game and some random poor shooter DOESN'T have a career night. I mean 10-15 from 3P for Dillon Brooks is just comically horrendous. This isn't to say he can't get hot, he's a 36% shooter this season, but considering this was his best showing in 458 career games, I mean what the hell. Even if he's wide open every single time, there has never been a game in which he's made 10 3s, and I'm thinking he's been open before in the previous 457 games.

His performance did feel somewhat familiar, and after thinking about it for a while I remembered where I had seen his before. Remember this?

I get that you can't take away everything, and the Celts did a great job in limiting Sengun/FVV/Jalen Green in this game. They were going to have to be beaten by guys like Brooks and Amen Thompson, and give them credit. They beat you. It took a fake as fuck 10 3s from Brooks, but he made them. Early, mid game, late game, it didn't matter. Poor closeouts and poor transition defense are mostly to blame, and that's a Celtics problem not a Rockets problem. 

Is it annoying as hell that he could still have a career night of 8 3PM and the Celts win this game? Sure. But as we continue to see, if you continue to fuck around and gets get hot, they'll beat you.

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- Celts now need an 8-4 stretch to secure 40/20. I think it's fair to officially be a little nervous about that given how they've been playing these last 12 games (6-6).

- KP getting a tech for this is everything that is wrong with the NBA and their officials. Beyond awful and they continue to destroy this great product

- We don't need to dive too much into it. A scoreless first half on 0-5 (0-4) from Jayson Tatum is never acceptable. In fact, I'm almost wondering if it's time to find a rest day for him. His legs are clearly gassed, and you can see it by his FG% and his rebounding numbers over the last 10 or so games

Just 22 a game on 40/30% splits with 3.2 TOs a game over his last 10, this is nowhere near good enough for a player of Tatum's caliber. In those 10 games, 5 are under 40% from the floor, and another 2 are under 42%. That's 70% of his games being under 42% from the floor paired with pretty dogshit outside shooting production.

He hasn't sat since 12/13 and is 6th in the NBA in total minutes. He needs a rest day, it's pretty clear.

The Ugly

- Once again, the Celts dropped a game due to horrific 4th quarter execution. I wrote a blog about a month ago that pointed out how the Celts have been the worst 4th quarter team in basketball, and ever since it's only gotten worse

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This game really boils down to a few stretches in the 4th quarter. The first came after they built their 12 point lead with about 8:38 to go. From there, the Celts had about a 4 minute stretch of not scoring. This is what that looked like

To me, this is where the game was truly lost. Just a complete lack of execution on both ends in the biggest moment of the game. Finally they punched first to open a 4th and gave themselves a cushion, only to immediately give it all away in about 3.5 minutes.

The next shift came in the final handful of minutes, and once again we saw terrible execution. During this stretch is where  Jaylen (and Jrue) simply could not make the open looks that were generated for them. These are shots you HAVE to make

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Jaylen's 0-5 down the stretch was brutal, and even though he came through and made the 2 FTs in the final seconds, that doesn't mean his 4th quarter was good. It wasn't. It was awful on both ends of the floor. They say it's a make or miss league, and this 4th quarter was a great example of that. HOU came out and executed, Celts bricked. That simple.

- I'm not sure we've ever seen back to back mental mistakes in a critical moment in a game quite like we did at the end of this loss. How do either of these things even happen? Not once, but twice!

On the first one, where the hell is KP going? I know a lot o the focus is on Luke on that play because his man cuts to the rim, but again, what is KP trying to accomplish there? You don't need to chase Amen Thompson 40 ft from the rim, plus Jaylen is right there to pick him up should he catch the ball.

On the second one, a clear miscommunication between Kornet and Jaylen for a switch, which somehow they decided to do at the worst possible time.

Now, Mazzulla said both of these plays are on him, and OK. I don't like that either. Maybe that was him taking a bullet for his players, but if he's serious and he was the one calling for a switch that late, well that's a terrible coaching decision by Joe as well. No matter how you want to slice it, it was a complete failure by everyone involved in the biggest moment of the game, and it happened twice. All within 10 seconds.

Add it all up and what do you get? Another kick right to the dick and another home loss that should have been completely avoidable and the Celts have no one but themselves to blame for it.