Matt LaFleur Thrives In Revenge Games: Stats And Trends For The NFL Wild Card Round

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. We're onto the playoffs. 6 games this weekend in one of the best sports weekends of the year. 

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). Let's finish the season with a winning record.

YTD: 42-38

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 12-5 ATS) @ Houston Texans (10-7, 7-8-2 ATS)

4:30 PM on CBS

LAC -2.5

T 42.5

Jim Harbaugh has thrived his whole career as a road favorite, going 19-7-1 ATS. Justin Herbert has also covered 7 of his last 8 in that spot. This is my favorite play of the weekend. It might be a chalky pick but chalky picks have been winning this season. I think the Chargers are just WAY better and will win comfortably. 

The Stats Say: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 11-6 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS)

8:00 PM on Amazon Prime

BAL -9.5

T 43.5

It's always hard betting against Mike Tomlin as an underdog. But it's a different story in the playoffs. The Steelers have covered just 1 of their last 6 games as a playoff underdog, and Tomlin has never covered as a playoff dog of 3 or more points (0-4-1 ATS). I know people get on playoff Lamar but 2-4 ATS isn't THAT awful. A bigger sample size tells us primetime Lamar is a good, as he's covered 17 of 25 nighttime games in his career. 

The Stats Say: Ravens

Denver Broncos (10-7, 12-5 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (13-4, 10-7 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

BUF -8.5

T 46.5

The over has hit in 9 of Josh Allen’s last 11 home games, and the over is 7-3 in Josh Allen’s playoff career. The Broncos have gone over in 5 of 6 last road games. The Bills offense is explosive and Bo Nix is the real deal. 47 points seems very doable. 

The Stats Say: Over

Green Bay Packers (11-6, 9-8 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 11-6 ATS)

4:30 PM on FOX

PHI -4.5

T 45.5

This is a rematch from Week 1 when the Eagles beat the Packers 34-29. When Matt LaFleur is facing off against a team he lost to in their previous match up, he’s 24-13 ATS, and 12-4 ATS as a dog. 

The Stats Say: Packers

Washington Commanders (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7, 10-7 ATS)

8 PM on NBC

TB -3

T 50.5

We've got a rookie QB (Jayden Daniels) against a QB with some playoff experience (Baker Mayfield). Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are 22-41-1 ATS when playing a QB with playoff experience. Good news for the Bucs. Bad news for the Commanders. 

The Stats Say: Bucs

Minnesota Vikings (14-3, 11-4-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 9-8 ATS)

8:00 PM on ESPN/NBC

MIN -1.5

T 47.5

This is a fascinating stat. Teams that won 12 or more games during the regular season that have to go on the road during the playoffs, are just 2-11 ATS in those games. It's going to be hard to bet on Sam Darnold after seeing that performance last week. Let's also not forget about the "Just played the Lions trend." Teams after facing the Lions are 4-12 ATS this season. 

The Stats Say: Rams 

If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.