Let's Talk About Connor Bedard One More Time

People on Blackhawks twitter are BIG mad at me online for a comment I made at the very end of this podcast where I suggested that maybe it'd be better for the Blackhawks rebuild long term if they ended up with Celebrini and a different player in the 2023 draft as opposed to Bedard and Levshunov. That's essentially what I said. That comment was on the heels of the Winter Classic and some stories that made me raise my eyebrows a little bit about some of his conduct. 

I'd like to set the record straight, once again, on my basis for this take. 

1) I think Bedard is AWESOME. I think he is going to be an All-Star for a decade+. I am extremely happy that he is on the team as a major piece to this rebuild. 

2) Bedard was hyped up as the greatest prospect since McDavid and he's the third most hyped hockey prospect of my lifetime behind Crosby and McDavid. 

3) At this time I don't see a future where Bedard reaches that McDavid and Crosby echelon. Patrick Kane is my favorite Blackhawk of all-time. He's going into the Hall of Fame. He's going to have his #88 in the rafters. At no point was Patrick Kane ever considered the best player in the NHL. He did win an MVP in 2016 and had the most points, but even in that year nobody would suggest that he was a better or more valuable player than Sidney Crosby. 

4) If he isn't at that McDavid/Crosby level then inherently the rebuild is further away from being a Cup contender than we had hoped. I am NOT saying that is Bedard's fault. I am not saying he can't or won't get better. I do think due to his size and his lack of true top end speed he has some limitations. Having the best player in the league like a Crosby or McDavid as the center of the team does cover a lot of warts on the rest of the roster. You don't have to be as deep. You don't have to be as balanced. 

5) Yes, Bedard's teammates, especially last year, we not up to par. While the team still stinks, the roster is improved this year. I think Richardson made some missteps with his preferred system, especially out of possession, but you can't say Bedard is playing with AHL guys like he was last year. Mikheyev isn't Leon Draistaitl, but he did score 21 goals in 53 games in '21-'22 with the Leafs. He has not been that same player since tearing his ACL in Vancouver, but he's not a bum. The Blackhawks paid Tyler Bertuzzi a nice number. Again, Bertuzzi isn't going into the Hall of Fame, but he does have 4 seasons with 20+ goals. Taylor Hall...certainly some deficiencies in his game, but he's been a productive NHL player for a decade. Same with Teravainen. Obviously Bedard hasn't had consistent time with those guys, but to suggest he's completely and utterly devoid of talent I think isn't accurate. 

6) I am not sure Bedard's best position is as a center. The Blackhawks tried Kane at center for a long stretch in 2011. That wasn't the way to get the most out of him either. It's not some crazy indictment on Bedard to suggest that he and the Blackhawks would be better off if he was pushed to the wing and didn't have as much responsibility on his plate. Having said that, if he isn't going to be your true 1C that is a problem for the overall project for Davidson because he is going to need to find that guy for Bedard. That makes the rebuild goal of winning a Cup significantly more difficult. 

7) I am torn on Bedard's propensity to cough up the puck. I don't want him to be boring with it. I want him to be creative and try things and be unpredictable, but I think there's a balance and I do think that is something he will learn with more time in the league. Someone on twitter said that Bedard turns it over at a similar rate to McDavid. I haven't seen the exact stat, but I am willing to assume that it is true. The difference would be that McDavid gets you minimum 100 points per year, he has even gotten some selke love in votes in many years (highest ever was 16th in voting per hockey ref, but full disclosure I don't put a ton of stock in that. Just illustrating that he's not a liability out there either). If Bedard was producing at that level I'd have no problem with the turnover rate. At this stage he isn't. 

8) Remind yourself of point #1. I think Bedard is awesome. I am glad he is on the team. 

9) Bedard can and will get better. He is 19. He will eventually get more physical strength as he enters his 20s because he will naturally get a man body. 

10) The Blackhawks will likely sign him to an extension this coming summer and I will be very happy about that. If I had to handicap it I think his next deal will be more of the Toews/Kane/Matthews 2nd contract. More of a bridge deal than the max 8 year deal he is eligible for. I hope that the Blackhawks can convince him to take the 8 year deal because I think with the cap going up and his production not being where he or anyone would've hoped through 2 years won't justify some outlandish number and the Blackhawks could get a steal if he does become a guy in the mix for Art Ross trophies. 

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11) I do really value guys who can impact the game without necessarily scoring. I do think there are things that Macklin Celebrini does better at this juncture. I think he has some tools in his locker that Bedard hasn't shown yet. 

12) While we are all trying to project where these guys will be in 5-10 years, none of us can predict the future. I don't think it is out of bounds to suggest that Bedard, while very impressive in a ton of ways, has many areas of his game that need improvement. I will never understand why saying that and pointing some of those things out gets people so angry. 

13) See points #1 and #8

14) I am not afraid to have an unpopular opinion. Sometimes I end up being right (the internet mutants are very quiet when that happens) and other times I get things very wrong. I've been on the internet for 12 years. You could make a pretty long spread sheet of things I've gotten wrong. When I get things wrong I admit it. I don't mind being proven wrong or hearing out other people and having a good chat about things. Talking to people who disagree with you is always good in my opinion. You either end up sharpening your own arguments OR the people who disagree with you present a compelling case and you can change your mind. I am always open to changing my mind. I actively seek out people who are smarter than me (also a long spreadsheet) to help inform my opinion. Hockey, however, isn't played on a spreadsheet. I love analytics, but hockey analytics are not a predictive model. There are too many variables. They've gotten light years better than what it was say 10 years ago, but it's not the "moneyball" equivalent that exists in baseball because baseball is static and much more easily tracked. 

15) Bedard is extremely talented. I am glad he is on the team.

16) I have concerns that if Bedard doesn't reach the Crosby echelon as he was hyped too then the rebuild ceiling gets very tricky. Kane was surrounded by Hall of Famers. There isn't a clear cut hall of famer in the team or in the prospect pool at this point. The Blackhawks have a very highly regarded farm system right now. I am excited about many of those guys. Prospects do break your heart though. Ask the White Sox. Ask the Sabres, Red Wings, and Senators. At one time or another all of those organizations had prospect pools that suggested a bright future. They've all been stuck in the mud for a decade. I am not saying the Blackhawks will suffer the same fate, but I think it'd be foolish to assume that all of these guys are going to come up and it's going to be back to the glory days too. It's a lot easier to envision another banner when you have a guy who translates to Sidney Crosby. 

17) I love Patrick Kane. We saw what the Blackhawks became when Hossa, Sharp, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Shaw, Saad, etc declined or moved on. I would argue that Kane's peak was actually after the Cup runs, but even with him being sensational the Blackhawks never won anything and many years they were god awful. Every player needs help. Some elite players need more than others to get over the hump.

18) Chill

19) Bedard will be a perennial all-star. 

20) Saying Bedard has things to work on is not the same as saying he's a bust. 

21) I hope in 2028 or whatever I am watching him make me eat shit because he just won a Cup, a Conn Smythe, and a Hart Trophy. 

22) Thank you for your time. Have a good day. Reasonable people can disagree. It's okay to speak your mind and express concerns you may have. It is okay to change your mind. I do it all the time. I would call that growth and maturity. Getting things wrong isn't a death sentence. I am not a journalist. I am an opinion guy. It''s my job to comment on things as they happen. Sometimes I end up having to eat shit. I don't mind that. I played hockey against a ton of future NHLers. I know a ton of smart hockey people. I feel lucky that I have smart people in my network that I can bounce ideas off of. As evidence changes, so does my opinion. 

23) I think Bedard is going to be an All-Star. I think he can do somethings better.