Knee Jerk Reactions to Week 13: Patriots vs. Colts

Things to consider while gently breaking it to Gisele that some husbands apparently can throw the fucking ball and catch the ball at the same time:

--Maybe this game, unlike last week's non-effort in Miami, is a sign of positive things to come. That maybe the Patriots in the Year of Our Lord 2024 are going to be different than the last half dozen editions and end the season with a strong finishing kick. Because there were signs of genuine progress. And yet, the results were the same. December in Foxboro continues to be a time when you open the little cardboard door on the Advent calendar, there's just another disappointing loss instead of a star-shaped piece of low grade chocolate. Because in the simplest possible terms, this team still does not yet know how to win.

--That might sound trite. Something they teach you to say at the Cris Collinsworth Academy of Shallow Analysis. But it doesn't make it any less true. Some teams know how to successfully execute the high-leverage plays that decide every game and some don't. For two decades the Dynasty Patriots gorged themselves on the carcasses of the sort of team they are right now. Some lesser opponent would stay with them, keep it close, and it was only a matter of time before they'd step on a rake and the Pats would take advantage of the opportunity. That's who they are now. That inability to win the dozen or so plays you have to have in the course of a game is their defining characteristic. They're just another opponent. One of the no-name fighters who gets knocked out in the montage of every boxing movie. The "Visitors" who get three seconds of screen time in a basketball film. And the best they can hope for is to put up a good effort that makes the highlight video of whoever wins the Super Bowl. Otherwise these games will be forgotten by anyone who isn't a Patriots fan, riding through this half-decade Valley of the Shadow of Death waiting for them to give us a reason to hope.

--Which made this one especially tough to swallow. This was the game where they proved they can dominate on the stat sheet and still find a way to cock it up. They outgained the Colts 422 to 253. Had more than double their passing yards, 220 to 109. Outgained them on the ground, 200 to 144. They only punted once. They also possessed the ball for over 10 minutes more. And have nothing to show for it. And there's this:

Because while 2024 Pats may not have invented the science of screwing up at critical moments, they have perfected it. 

--Let's begin with the offensive line. Those rushing numbers speak for themselves. With Rhamondre Stevenson primarily hitting gaps and power runs (which tend to be more effective against a zone scheme like the one Indy favors) and Antonio Gibson on outside zones and stretch runs, they put together the best, sustained ground game they have all season, with Layden Robinson in at left guard and all five starters taking 100% of the snaps. Plus this one time, Drake Maye enjoyed more security in the pocket than you can expect to find in the changing rooms at Old Navy. So all that was good. 

--Here's Stevenson on the first possession. A pin-pull with two tight ends to the play side in which Vederian Lowe blocked down on the end, Michael Onwenu pulled to throw a kick out block on Dayo Odeyingbo, and Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and Robinson all bounced to the second level to seal off the inside/backside defenders:

--Gibson's touchdown (one of his four rushes for 10-plus yards on the day) was similar. Except Onwenu never actually made contact with any Colts. Gibson just went behind him, beat Jaylon Jones to the edge, then made it out of Indy's Escape Room and found the end zone all on his own:

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--And of course I'd get my license to practice Shameless Patriots Fanboyism suspended if I didn't gush over the 41-yarder Maye ripped off. This came out of a 3x1 in which Stevenson and Kendrick Bourne ran an out-flat combo route that got the Colts' coverage flowing right. With space to run, Maye went all Leroy Jenkins and got quality upfield blocks from Kayshon Boutte and Pop Douglas:

--But - and as Ned Stark once put it, "Everything before 'but' is bullshit" - there is no mistake this O-line is incapable of. No drive so drive moving the ball so well they can't find a way to put sugar in the gas tank. A 1st & goal from Indy's 2 results in a touchdown on a Wildcat run with Jacoby Brissett coming in for one play as an inside run threat, only to be called back for a hold on Onwenu. Another hold on Robinson makes it a 1st & goal from the 22. Three plays later they're settling for a field goal. My supportive Irish Rose very reasonably asked why they kept committing these holds. And the short answer is because they're not good enough to throw 72 blocks a game without mixing in a few holds. If you want someone who is, you draft them in the early rounds or pay them the big bucks in free agency. When you shop at the Ocean State O-Line Lot, you get what you paid for.

--Another touchdown came off the board when Douglas got called for an illegal shift (just prior to Gibson's TD so it didn't cost them). Another drive stalled out due to a 3rd & 1 in which the Colts defense held a position meeting in Conference Room Rhamondre. Onwenu said afterward that Maye had changed the play prior to the snap, but he was still running the original play. So presumably he didn't get the memo and didn't end up blocking anyone. Which brings us to the coaching.

--Alex Van Pelt did some nice things. He's gotten more creative as the season's gone on. The shovel pass to Henry on the opening drive out of a split backfield with a fake handoff to Marcus Jones was inspired:

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As was the botched attempt at a Wildcat. But to these vision-corrected eyes, not one of Maye's five rushes - for 59 yards and 11.9 YPA - were designed runs. Presumably Van Pelt will be watching the film today and might take note of the fact designed quarterback runs are the energy drink that powers the Colts offense. And was the main reason they won the game. They were 3-for-4 in the red zone. The Patriots were 2-for-6. There's yer problem, lady. 

--Jerod Mayo talked after the game about how they had no answer for Indy's safety coming into the box once the field got short. And since NFL and college teams have been dealing with that very basic law of football physics since before Germ Theory existed, you'd think AVP would have a plan. Instead, he tries to run the usual man-beaters: Stacks, rubs, mesh concepts. Only to find he's not getting anyone open in confined quarters. Which was how the first drive ended with a coverage sack and three points instead of Maye's abilities to run and throw on the run being used to take back the numbers advantage the box safety provides. 

--But to expand this beyond just Van Pelt, the recurring theme that just won't stop running through this team is this problem with communication. Onwenu doesn't know the play's been audibled. That stunned look on Joey Slye's face after he shanked that pitching wedge attempt into the parking lot was, according to him, some kind of communication error. Then there was the complete system failure suffered by the defense on this one:

Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin were less alone at Tranquility Base than Jonathan Taylor and Adonai Mitchell were in the New England secondary. All of which speaks to a team-wide failure to get everyone singing off the same song sheet, in all three phases of the game. I can't imagine how this can still be an issue into December, even with a new coaching staff, but it is. I assume they're using the same methods of communication they always have. And that 31 other coaching staffs do. But maybe they're going with something a little more traditional. Semaphore flags. Aldis lamps. Smoke signals. Carrier pigeons. Whatever it is, "working" is definitely not a term we can use. Thirteen games and 10 losses is proof of that. 

--And once again we were subjected to pure coaching mismanagement at the end of the half. This time, they were facing a 1st & 10 from the Colts 11 with 0:41 left and all their timeouts. Only to run it twice, set fire to all their timeouts, be forced to throw, take a sack (and a penalty on Lowe that got declined), and then have some sort of communication failure on the missed kick. There's just something about the 2:00 warning that turns Mayo into Uncle Billy with the Building & Loan's cash reserves in his pocket. And George Bailey almost went to prison for Billy's malfeasance.

--Alright, enough of that. Who could use some good news? Me? You? Everyone? Great. Let's focus on a few positives here. If you're wondering why my goal for the bye week is to see if Drake Maye wants to come over to my house to make a blanket fort with me, here's a big reason why:

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This was one of the rare times Indy went with man coverage. Maye read Hooper one-on-one with Zaire Franklin, knew he had a size advantage to work with, and put it where Hopper could high-point it. Even more encouraging was how perfect the timing was. I've been sitting here these past few weeks bellyaching about how seldom we get to see a play that is executed perfectly in phase. Well here's one. Three step drop. Clean pocket. Plants his feet. Ball comes out. Receiver is where he's expected to be. Just like a real NFL offense. 

--Though if I can interrupt this moment of positivity with a quick note of reality, let's look at where Ja'Lynn Polk (20 snaps, 1 target, 0 catches, still holding steady at 87 yards on the season) was on this one. Again, what's with the spacing in AVP's passing game? Is there a reason he's setting up camp a half step behind Hooper on the goal line? It's been happening all season, where Maye's receivers are bunched in the same spot like the way your 4-year-old puts ornaments on the tree. 

--That's enough of that. Back to happier thoughts. Like how Maye was able to attack the Colts' base zone coverages as well. In this case, it was with Henry and Kendrick Bourne running a sit-glance route combo. The inside guy sits. The outside guy reads the safety. If they're in cover-2, he goes vertical. Against quarters, with the middle of the field closed, he runs a dig. And Maye hit him right as he came out of his break:

--This feels good. Let's see if we can keep this up, and not make a liar out of the HomeGoods "Positive Vibes Only" sign on the wall. To do that, it always helps to look to Christian Gonzalez, who had another monster week. Toggling between covering Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, Anthony Richardson gave him a good leaving alone. Unofficially, he was targeted four times, with two completions and 14 total yards. And one of those incompletions was a textbook example of pattern-matching a route (backside dig) and suckering the quarterback into thinking his man was open when he wasn't:

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--And yet, maybe Gonzo's most impressive play was planting Pittman into the ground like a CFB flag as soon as Jahlani Tavai got a mitt on the pass that Christian Elliss picked off:

That was his split-second reaction the instant the ball's trajectory changed. I don't know if that kind of awareness can be coached up. I just know that with Gonzalez, it doesn't need to. He came into the league with a veteran's knowledge of the game. And has a legitimate chance to be as good as any cornerback we've ever seen here. Given the history of this franchise, that's not something I say lightly.

--Another positive was the return of Jabrill Peppers, who along with Gonzalez and Kyle Dugger never left the field. Obviously it was far from perfect. Games that end with a 19-play, 80 yard go-ahead touchdown drive seldom are. But between Peppers and Dugger, they kept the Colts' deep game in check and made 17 tackles, most of them in run support. Plus Peppers is back to making calls and pre-snap adjustments, despite being away for two full months. Let's just hope his next hearing at Quincy District Court ends better than yesterday's trial did.

--As far as I'm concerned, Alex Austin can be my boundary corner opposite Gonzalez any time. It makes no sense to me that he's fighting for playing time while Marcus Jones (5-foot-8 to Austin's 6-1) is getting targeted game after game.

--This Week's Applicable Movie Quote:

"Let's just say, I loathe it all!
Every little trait, however small,
Makes my very flesh begin to crawl,
With simple utter loathing,
There's a strange exhilaration,
In such total detestation,
It's so pure! So strong!"

-Elphaba and Glinda, Wicked

--This was the kind of thing that used to make me literally lose sleep the night after a game. That game winning conversion should've been a penalty:

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Now it's just our reality. It's what happens to teams that don't know how to win. I long for the days we used to benefit from that kind of non-call all the time. And hope I live long enough to see them return. Make the Patriots Great Again. Enjoy not losing during the bye week.