We Need To Have a Conversation About the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff
The College Football Playoff committee is going to release its third rankings of the season on Tuesday night and I'm sure there will be plenty of conversation online about it and arguing back and forth until we play another week of games and then do this again next week. But all that really matter is the final rankings and who actually gets into the College Football Playoff, which is what we need to talk about.
As of right now, it seems the most likely outcome is the Big Ten is going to get four teams into the Playoff — Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana — as is the SEC, but there will be at least one, if not multiple, 10-2 SEC teams left out. Some people who follow college football have begun to recognize this and dare to ask questions such as, "Why are we blindly giving away spots to Big Ten teams with inflated records against bad schedules and no good wins?" This has caused the Big Ten community to, understandably, riot in protest and decry the "SEC bias" that allegedly exists in the college football media.
And look, I understand why a fanbase like Indiana, historically one of the worst power conference teams in college football, would and should be shouting from the rooftops about its undefeated record and likely 11-1 finish being worth of inclusion in the Playoff. It's the best season the school has ever had. But whatever that final record ends up being will have come against the 106th-best schedule in the country. For those of you wondering how many power conference teams have a schedule ranked lower than that, I'll save you a Google: it's zero. The Hoosiers' gauntlet of a schedule ranks behind teams like Southern Miss, Georgia State and FIU.
If Indiana loses to Ohio State this week, its best win will be ... 5-5 Michigan at home? 6-5 Washington? At some point, you have to beat somebody. Now, the Hoosiers certainly have that opportunity this week when they go to Columbus. And if they win that game, absolutely put them in the Playoff. Hell, stick 'em at No. 1 if you want.
But then we're looking at 10-2 Ohio State, whose best win would be a 7-point victory over a Penn State team that didn't score an offensive touchdown. And that Penn State team is going to finish 11-1 with its best win being either 5-5 USC or 5-5 Wisconsin — I'll let you take your pick. The Nittany Lions and loser of OSU-IU are going to finish without a good win between them, yet will likely both make the Playoff because we can't have too many SEC teams. If you want to talk about a bias in the selection process, talk about the communism that we're dealing with to specifically exclude SEC teams.
Any one of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss would dominate the schedules these Big Ten teams have faced. Each of those teams also has at least one, if not multiple wins over other teams in CFP contention — you know, because they have to play those teams in the regular season. They'd also all be between a 7-point and 12-point favorite over Indiana on a neutral field, according to Massey.
If the argument is simply based on record, then Army should be ranked in the top five right now. Of course, nobody actually wants that, because everyone understands Army isn't actually one of the best teams in the country just because it's 9-0. Why that same logic flies out the window when we start talking about Big Ten teams who have played a schedule equivalent to FIU, I don't know.
All of this consternation is going to be a moot point in the end, though. Indiana is going to play Alabama or Georgia and lose by 30 while one or multiple teams who have already beaten the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs play in the Citrus Bowl in the name of "fairness." There is absolutely a bias in this process, it just isn't the one the Big Ten burner accounts are warning you about.