The Patriots WRs Lead the NFL in One Category: Overconfidence

I'm not telling you anything you didn't figure out by the time you reached about 10 years of age, but as a general rule NFL wide receivers tend to be a breed apart. There's just something about the nature of their job that either creates uber-confident, attention-seeking extroverts, or attracts them. Which is why, speaking just about elite Hall of Fame-worthy receivers, for every quiet, humble Calvin Johnson personality types, you tend to get a dozen or so Terrell Owenses. 

Historically, the Patriots have sought to build their wide receiver depth chart around the former. But in the last couple of years, seemed to be drafting and signing the latter. And as it stands, saying the results have not been good would be the understatement of the 21st century. In fact, right now I think it's fair to say that no position group in NFL history has ever had more self-confidence and less production than the 2024 Patriots receiver depth chart. 

Let us count the ways. But before we do, know that I am exempting Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas from this list. Bourne has been productive when healthy and didn't even publicly complain when he was sent to the Cool Hand Luke hot box that was Matt Patricia's doghouse in 2022. A 6th round pick last year out of Liberty, Douglas has not only exceeded all reasonable expectations, he's joining the ranks of one of the great draft steals in franchise history, along with Troy Brown, Julian Edelman, and The Man Who Needs No Introduction.  So let's acknowledge the feel-good nature of his Joseph Campbell-like Hero's Journey and focus on the rest. Beginning with the guy who Dick Van Dyked:

… that 2-point conversion try Sunday, when simply staying on his feet would've made it a one score game with more than half a quarter still to go. (As an aside, I still love this show. It holds up, even 60 years later. The writing was brilliant. He was an incredible comedian. Young Mary Tyler Moore is the hottest woman in G-rated TV history. I just could never understand why he was coming home from work to find his two coworkers sitting in his living room. Moving on.) 

Ja'Lynn Polk

This was Polk last week:

He's taken more passing reps than anyone on the team besides Hunter Henry. And those hands and those opportunities have  combined to produce these results:

Targets: 25

Receptions: 10

Reception %: 40.0, 7th lowest

Drop %: 16.7, 7th highest

PFF offensive grade: 44.5, dead last among all WRs with 14 or more targets

Passer rating when targeted: 61.8, lowest on the team

To put that last number in perspective, Anthony Richardson's passer rating is 60.0. Meaning every time Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett have tried to pass it to him, Polk has turned them into statistically the worst quarterback in the league. Further perspective: Will Levis is at 70.7.

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Kayshon Boutte

Another 6th round flyer in what would be Bill Belichick's final draft in New England out of LSU, Boutte came to Foxboro with an up and down college scouting report. One plagued by an injury as well as Brian Kelly. But also with a lot of potential. Belichick must have thought so anyway, as he gave the rookie 55 snaps in Week 1. Only to make Boutte inactive for the next eight games, and 12 of the next 15. (Much to the dismay of every hack sports journo who had prepared a dozen "Boutte Call" references they never got to use.) He never took a snap in Week 1 of this season, and was inactive in Week 2. But then he started getting on the field. And made the most of his chances:

And followed that one up with a 33-yarder Sunday. So it would seem he and Drake Maye have that undefinable QB-WRmance thing going. Giving everyone a reason to feel good in the midst of two straight blowout losses. Then came this:

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You can certainly make a case for a guy speaking up on his own behalf. We respect it. Advocating for yourself is the American Way. It's why we celebrate John Fogarty singing to his manager to get him off the bench and stick him in centerfield. But let's not lose sight of the fact he was drafted 187th. Was a part time player in his final year of college. Was benched by the GOAT of coaching even as he had the worst offense in the league. And went into the Houston game with 12 career targets and six receptions. In the end, he might turn out to be right and prove he's been under utilized. But talking about it public like he's got Tyreek Hill's resume is a bold move for a guy who's made two impressive career plays. 

KJ Osborn

Osborn came to New England with two things: A low salary and a reputation for terrible pizza paddle hands. Effect, cause. In 2023 for Minnesota, he had a Polkian 12.7% drop rate and a contested catch rate of just 25%. With two career fumbles and eight interceptions while targets over his three seasons. But in London, he produced:

And then proceeded to build on the momentum of that by posting a text exchange he had with someone (who was mistakenly assumed to be his agent but wasn't) where they were both complaining about how he's not being used. And followed that up by telling reporters he'd like to get traded:

If Eliot Wolf's phone don't ring, you know it's 31 other GMs expressing their lack of interest in Osborn's services. 

Javon Baker

Still no one, but no one, has talked more and done less than 4th round pick Javon Baker. There's an old cliche about promising an elephant and producing a mouse. Baker hasn't even provided the mouse yet. He hasn't been seen since preseason, where he underwhelmed while being defended by guys who are currently working real jobs someplace. Despite coming out of the draft with his verbal guns blazing:

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Here's what I said at the time:

I say, let Javon Baker bring it on. Have him talk himself up all he wants, give him the latitude to be who he is, and demand that he backs it up. All this talking will make him a target for opposing defenders, and he'll just have to prove he's up to the challenge. The way the truly great ones do. And however successful he is, it'll be fascinating to see how it plays out.

I think I can now say, without fear of contradiction, that it hasn't played out. Not even a tiny, microscopic bit. 

So there's a common thread that runs through all of these guys as we sit here approaching the midpoint of the season. Polk, Boutte, Osborn and the invisible man that is Baker have proven that they're supremely confident, full of self-assurance, and brimming with pride in their abilities. Which is good. As long as that self-esteem is in direct proportion to what they've accomplished, which is, respectively, little, next to nothing, and absolutely nothing. 

We don't need these guys to be humble. We just need performance to match their egos. Drake Maye is doing all he can:

But sooner or later he's going to realize what the gold standard of quarterbacks spent 20 years telling us: His favorite receiver is the one who's open. Not the one whose mouth is always open.

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(BOOM. Not to let my own ego run wild too, but that's one hell of a line for ending a long post. Really puts a ribbon on the whole premise. That's the Old Balls Difference.)