Friday Punt Party Parlay - Expect Brazil To Halt Any Offensive Arms On Either Team's First Drive (+475 Both Teams Punt On First Drive)
Quick little prop bet idea that came across my desk today as I sift through some NFL data. It was brought to my attention that both teams tonight have new defensive coordinators which made me initially think I should take the over the 49.5. Makes sense, right? No chance for any chemistry to form and new plays likely factor into miscues that could lead to giving up big plays. Hammer the over, right?
But wait.
I ran a query to find all instances in which both teams just hired a new DC in a Week 1 game. Going back to 1999, six out of seven games hit the under:
Caveat - There were four qualifying instances from 1989-1994 and the over hit in all of them. So we might have a classic case of recency and selection bias. Maybe there's something to say about more modern examples having more signal than older. Who knows. But I'll shy away from that given the low payout.
But check the right-most column on the table out. Four out of seven games started with the first two drives ending in a punt. You can play that little packaged parlay at +475 on Draft Kings:
I kinda dig this. Fun little prop to start the game off while you wait for your other plays to unfold as the game goes along. And there's just enough of a story you can convince yourself that there might actually be something to it. What if we had our presumed narrative all wrong? What if offenses are a little more timid in games with new DCs to sort of feel them out a bit? Especially on the first drive. If that's the case, they might play more conservatively. This could not only help in making it more likely the offenses don't score on their first drives, but also not turn the ball over (which would be a whammy).
Plus the game is in Brazil. I don't expect anyone trying to take up arms is going to be able to dictate gaining any forward progress.
I'm in on this bet. Join me at your peril! Not exactly a strong sample size data dive but let's have a little fun. At least we can expect a quick death if we don't prevail.
How very Brazil.
