Gold Or Nothing For USA Basketball, Same With Soccer, & 4x400 Relay Double Gold? (Olympics Day 18 Preview)

UH OH, THINGS ARE GETTING TIGHT!

UPDATED AS OF 2:00 PM EST ON AUGUST 10th

With just two days left, I figured it would be a good time to breakdown the events both the United States and China are A) favored to win Gold in, B) have a realistic shot at winning Gold in, and C) have a longshot chance at winning Gold in…

The simple explanation: the United States has a ton more opportunities to win Gold compared to China.

EDIT: I missed on event for China, so the total for them will likely be 40

The longer explanation: the United States has a ton more opportunities to win Gold compared to China, but they cannot afford to lose many, or any, of the events they are favored to win Gold in. For Team USA, there is a chance they lose a few of those favored events, but China may as well enter their favored competitions already sitting atop the podium. What I am saying is, the magic number to win the Gold Medal count for Team USA is 41. I do not see any way, shape, or form that China has more than 40 medals, but I also do not think there is a remote chance they have less than 40.

It's an eerily similar task to what faced Team USA at Tokyo 2020, where they beat out China on the final day, thanks to some surprise medals, by a final count of 39 to 38.

As for the overall medal count, Team USA is about to post its best total ever in a games without a mass-boycott since winning 231 (lmao) at the 1904 Games. In 1980, the USSR won 195 total medals, but 66 countries, including the USA, boycotted the Games, and in 1984, Team USA won 174 total medals, but 15 countries, including the USSR, boycotted the Games.

Team USA should end with 126 or more medals, which would be the most won since Team Great Britain won 146 total medals at the 1908 Games.

Back to the Gold Medal race… Team USA might actually be leading if the track & field team knew how to not fuck up a Men's 4x100m Relay…

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Since winning at Sydney 2000, Team USA has countless DQ's and baton disasters in this event. The women crushed it, winning Gold in a comeback effort, but the men once again shit their pants in this race. While the sprinters had issues, it was a coaching blunder that fucked them up. Why they messed with the lineup and order is baffling, but they sure paid the price.

I won't end on a bad note, because I need to show off Rai Benjamin finally winning Gold…

Benjamin, Norway's Karsten Warholm, and Brazil's Alison dos Santos own 24 of the 25 fastest times in the history of the Men's 400m Hurdles. An insane stat, a great race, and an awesome image seeing an American legend finally grab Olympic Gold.

Let's take a look at what's on deck for Saturday…

GOLD OR BUST FOR USA HOOPS

Well, this is it for Team USA Basketball. Do or die. Put up or shut up. Legends or national disaster.

I was fairly wrong on my prediction for the game against Serbia (minus saying it would be a Steph Curry game), and it turns out playing Team USA three times did have some impact. It also didn't help that they made 15 three points in three quarters.

But that right there is exactly why I think Team USA will beat the shit out of France. You essentially need to hit 20 threes, and play perfect basketball, to have a chance at beating this USA squad. And if you look at what France has, I just don't think the offense is there to keep up.

Jokic creates a matchup nightmare, and the Serbia role players, especially the likes of Bogdan Bogdanovic, are more than capable of making shots when needed. The only team that has shot better in these Games than Team USA was Serbia, and they're right behind Team USA in terms of points per game. Combine the dynamic offense, with the fact they had seen this USA team twice, and it was a perfect recipe for a near upset.

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France does not have any of that… at all. These teams have yet to face each other, but France doesn't really have a good blueprint, and, even more importantly, the French offense has not produced anything close to what Serbia did in this tournament.

France is only scoring 79.6 points per game, and then includes an overtime contest against Japan in which they probably should have lost. For comparison, Serbia averaged 95 points per game, and Team USA averaged a cool 107 points per game.

France is averaging under 10 three pointers per game, while Team USA is averaging nearly 15. The French will be the worst three point shooting team the Americans have faced in the Paris 2024 Olympics.

The French defense is very good, probably the best in the Olympics, but the offense just simply isn't there. Don't get me wrong, Wembanyama is going to create problems for the United States, but he doesn't really have support from Rudy Gobert, who is hurt and not playing well. Just look at these numbers… who is going to beat Team USA?

Even Wembanyama isn't exactly playing all that well offensively. Even if his defense creates a ton of problems, they are going to need him to carry a ton of weight. Maybe Evan Fournier goes off? He always seems to step up against Team USA. Nic Batum? Frank Ntilikina? I just don't see it.

The home crowd is honestly what worries me the most. It will be a very loud, very France heavy crowd, but I also think Team USA is going to absolutely feast off the hostile environment. This isn't like we have an American team of raw college Freshman going into an away environment for the first time. Could the crowd fuel France early, and maybe for a little while? For sure. Will it face the United States? Absolutely not.

Even the argument that Team USA played an emotionally draining game won't hold much weight, because France did the same exact thing in staving off Germany.

It should be a fun game and atmosphere, but I expect the Americans to roll to their fifth-straight Olympic Games Gold Medal, which would be the most by one country since Team USA won seven straight from 1936 through 1968.

NOTE: Here are my middle-man thoughts on the Tatum-Kerr fiasco: On one hand, I think Kerr needs to put the guys in he thinks will win regardless of splitting playing time, on the other hand I do acknowledge he hasn't handled things all that well, and he absolutely deserves criticism. Could he have played Tatum when a few guys were struggling the other day before the comeback? For sure, and he made a few other substitutions instead that turned out to be a mess. But I care more about enjoying this team's run than anything else, so I'll stick with that.

DOUBLE GOLD FOR USA 4x400 RELAY TEAMS?

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Pretty cool moment for Quincy Wilson, a future face of Team USA Track & Field, as he was part of the Men's 4x400m Relay team that qualified for the finals on Saturday.

He will not be part of the final team, however, as it is expected reigning 400m Gold Medalist Quincy Hall will replace him. Probably for the best as Wilson struggled mightily, so much so that the USA needed a comeback to qualify. With that said, it was great to see the kid get experience, despite some of the criticism he's received on social media.

Another big addition to the lineup seems to be Rai Benjamin, who I mentioned above as having just won a Gold Medal in one of the most stacked Men's 400m Hurdles finals of all-time.

Team USA will go in as the heavy favorite to win, with Botswana, led by new 200m Champion Letsile Tebogo, behind them as the best shot at upsetting Team USA. The men have won 18 out of 25 times in Olympics history, and will hit three-in-a-row if they can finish it off on Saturday with Gold.

As for the women, they had a much easier time in qualifying, finishing with a season's best, and the fastest time by a full three seconds. None of the Top 3 finishers from the Women's 400m will be in the Women's 4x400m Relay, but hurdler Femke Bol will be out there (likely) for the Netherlands, and she already put on a show in a 4x400m Relay in these games…

Whew boy. The Netherlands should be fine adding one of the best Women's 400m Hurdlers of all-time. It's not like the United States will add the GREATEST 400m Hurdlers of all-time or anyth--

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Oh. Yeah, Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone is likely (not confirmed, but she said she would be game to run it again) going to run for Team USA in the 4x400m Relay, just like she did at Tokyo 2020. They United States will also likely add Alexis Holmes, their lone sprinter in the Women's 400m, to the team as well.

This should be pretty simple, though a possible McLaughlin vs. Bol showdown would be quite something. She former did run the first leg at Tokyo 2020, though, so I am not sure if she'd be the anchor for the United States like many expect Bol to be on Saturday.

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• Soccer: While Team USA is going to not match their Gold Medal in Women's Water Polo (dynasty ended!), they do have an opportunity to pickup a new Gold Medal with Team USA Women's Soccer. Mallory Swanson and co. go in with an expectation to beat Brazil, which would be the women's first Gold Medal since a thrilling tournament win at London 2012.
• Women's 100m Hurdles: Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone isn't the only Kentucky Wildcat with a chance to go back-to-back at these Games, as Puerto Rico's Jasmine Camacho-Quinn enters Saturday with a look at doing the same in the Women's 100m Hurdles. The American absolutely have a shot in this race as Camacho-Quinn isn't a runaway favorite in the event. Both Alaysha Jackson & Masai Russell have a legit shot to dethrone her and win Gold in an event that is always unpredictable, and oftentimes a fucking disaster for favorites (sorry, Lolo Jones).
• Men's High Jump: It would take quite the upset for American Shelby McEwen to win Gold in the Men's High Jump, but based on how incredible Team USA has been on the track and in the field at Paris 2024, ruling out a surprise win would be foolish!
• Men's 5000m: The same can be said for Grant Fisher in the Men's 5000m, but an added note for this American is that he already medaled in these Games! A late surge got him a Bronze in the 10,000m, and now in the shorter distance, could that late burst possibly catapult him to Gold? Jakob Ingebrigtsen of Norway, the fiery shit-talker everyone loves to hate, is the favorite… but the last time he was the favorite, he failed to medal thanks to two Americans, Cole Hocker & Yared Nuguse, catching him and taking Gold & Bronze. Could lightning strike twice!?
• Men's 800m: Bryce Hoppel tweeted "Yo get me out on the track rn" the other day when Cole Hocker shocked the world, and has also said he's in the 800m to win it. He's a longshot, but maybe the inspiration will be enough fuel to grab him what would be a massive upset, and historic gold in the event for Team USA.
• Golf: Team USA is going to have to scrape to win back-to-back Gold in Women's Golf, but Rose Zhang, playing pretty well, is just two back of the leaders. Nelly Korda, the Gold Medalist at Tokyo 2020, isn't out of it yet, but would need a Scottie Scheffler-esque Final Round. Her quadruple bogey crushed her chances on Friday, otherwise she may be in the pole position going into Sunday.
• Canoeing: Defending Gold Medalist Nevin Harrison from Team USA is going to have her shot to grab another Gold on Saturday in the Women's C-1 200m Canoe Sprint. These races are wild, and don't get much hype primetime, but if you want to see people go all out in a canoe, don't miss Harrison try and go back-to-back.
• Wrestling: Another tough day for the Team USA Men in Wrestling resulted in Spencer Lee winning a tough Silver, and Kyle Dake falling when a Gold was in his sights. The women have racked up two Gold, but the men have yet to achieve the feat in Paris. Kyle Snyder, Kennedy Blades, and Zine Retheford all wrestle on Saturday for the first time, with all three having legit shots to win Gold, and Blades entering her tournament as the favorite to take the title.
• Breaking: Psssst… I didn't really love what break dancing had to offer in its debut in the Olympics. I will give it another try on Saturday when the Team USA men are in action, featuring Victor Montalvo, the reigning World Champion and favorite to take Gold. Regardless if you like the sport or not, this would be a massive pickup for Team USA in the hunt for the most Gold Medals at the Games.

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That's all for now. Go Team USA. See you tomorrow.