An Expert Says Humans Will Achieve 'Singularity' With AI in 21 Years, 'Expanding Intelligence a Millionfold'
There's a part in the second act of Return of the Jedi where Luke is having a chat with his Jedi Master's Force ghost - as one does - about the possibility of facing his evil father and try to turn him good. And Translucent Obi Wan tries to talk him out of this cockamamie scheme by explaining, "He's more machine now than man." Then, seeing no comprehension in the dull eyes of the slack-jawed moisture farmboy from Planet Nowhere staring back at him, Kenobi adds, "Twisted and evil."
Now, every time I've watched that, and it's in the dozens, I never wondered which side of Old Ben's padawan was the "twisted and evil" part. It was just assumed he was talking about the machine parts and not the Tattooine human stuff they're attached to.
This occurred to me while listening to this conversation between Lex Fridman and Elon Musk the other day. (Let that be a glimpse into what a non-stop, high-octane, nitro-powered thrill ride my life is.) Because here's Musk, whose people have just succeeded in putting Neuralink implants in a quadriplegic that enables him now full interfacing with a computer. And Musk goes onto explain how these devices will allow soon humans to think and communicate at speeds we can barely comprehend. From bits per second to terabytes per second. And he compared someone using Neuralink talking to someone without it like you or I observing the movements of a tree. If I'm explaining that right. Which is doubtful.
Anyway, the brave new world being described in this discussion is nearer to reality than any of us barely articulate trees have realized. At least according to someone who ought to know:
Source - [N]o one makes futuristic predictions quite like Ray Kurzweil.
An American computer scientist-turned-futurist, Kurzweil has long believed that humanity is headed toward what’s known as “the singularity,” when man and machine merge. In 1999, Kurzweil theorized that artificial general intelligence would be achieved once humanity could achieve a technology capable of a trillion calculations per second, which he pegged to occur 2029. Experts at the time scoffed at the idea, figuring it’d be at least a century or more, but with Kurzweil’s timeline only a few years off—and talk of AGI spreading—that decades-old prediction is beginning to loom large. ...
Not only is he "sticking with [his] five years” prediction, as he recently said in a TED Talk, Kurzweil also believes that humans will achieve a millionfold intelligence by 2045, aided by brain interfaces formed with nanobots non-invasively inserted into our capillaries.
“We’re going to be a combination of our natural intelligence and our cybernetic intelligence,” Kurzweil said in an interview with The Guardian, “and it’s all going to be rolled into one. We are going to expand intelligence a millionfold by 2045, and it is going to deepen our awareness and consciousness.” ...
[O]ther philosophers and AI experts agree that some form of merger is likely inevitable, and in some ways, is already beginning. In July, Oxford’s Marcus du Sautoy and Nick Bostrom both expounded on the hopeful and harrowing possibilities of our AI future, and for both of them, a kind of synthesis appeared inevitable.
“I think that we are headed toward a hybrid future,” Sautoy told Popular Mechanics.
Look, we can all worry about the moral questions about this issue. It cuts to the very core of what it means to be human. Are we the simple carbon blobs the Materialists would say we are, our thoughts the mere products of electrical impulses in our brains? Or are we, like others believe, spiritual beings whose corporeal bodies are merely vessels for our consciousness, which exists outside simple matter? And where do the mechanical devices we create fit into this dynamic? If you upload your memories to some hard drive, is that a form of immortality? If so, what does that entail?
These are difficult philosophical questions that have been debated by the greatest minds since long before the invention of AI or even the first computers. But according to these great thinkers, there's not much point in having the discussion because it's happening with or without our approval. They used the word "inevitable," not me or you. And inevitability sounds like it's going to get here soon.
By way of perspective, 21 years ago the Red Sox were on their way to losing the Aaron Boone game and Tom Brady was months away from winning his second Super Bowl. And to give you an idea of how fast the technology has improved in a short period of time, the iPhone has only been around for 17 years. So believe it or not, 2045 is going to be here before you know it.
As far as whether we should want this or not, that's between you and your God. I know if I could go back in time and install a chip in 18 year old me that would make me smarter, I can't imagine I wouldn't do it. When I look back at the dumbassery I pulled that could've been prevented by a faster brain, how could I say no? Instead of blowing all my money on the 1990 Oakland A's, or trying to have my friend's car push mine to the repair shop to save money on a tow truck, or buying that "Fuck You, We're From Boston" shirt I could never wear anyplace, I'd could've become one of the geniuses I admire. Elon. Ken Jennings. Ernie Adams. Instead of just a stupid comic who writes Patriots blogs and is consumed by his own regrets.
Still, the most remarkable part of this is that so few people saw it coming until it was practically here. The future in all the SciFi I consumed growing up was all about flying cars and space ships and time travel. Or at most, robot parts that make you better, stronger, faster:
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No one saw us all having rectangles in our pockets that can access all the knowledge of mankind and supercomputers in every brain. I just hope I'm around long enough to see it. And that it makes my blogs better.