LSU's Offense Will Be Good But Can The Defense Stop A Nosebleed?
Mike Ehrmann. Getty Images.Brian Kelly enters Year 3 in Baton Rouge and no one can say the first two years were not eventful. LSU won the SEC West Title in his 1st season and QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy in his 2nd. Both teams went 9-3 in the regular season and the program remains in good hands.
But it is hard not to think about what might have been last fall if this defense could stop literally anybody. And that is even weirder at a school that is historically known for a ferocious D.
LSU lost 3 games with one of the greatest offenses in the history of college football. Gone are Jayden Daniels and both star WRs Malik Nabers & Brian Thomas. All three were 1st round picks in the NFL Draft.
Let's take a look at the key questions facing the Tigers entering this fall…..
1) Can the offense replace Daniels, Nabers & Thomas?
Before we look ahead, let's look back at the unbelievable talent LSU just lost to the NFL.
LSU has Garret Nussmeier at QB ready to go and he can sling the football. He threw for over 400 yards in the bowl win against Wisconsin and almost 400 yards in 2nd half of 2022 SEC Championship loss to Georgia. While he is nowhere near as mobile as Daniels, LSU will be fine at QB.
The WR corps is also damn good. Look out for last year's #3 WR Kyren Lacy to step into the lead role. Chris Hilton has track speed and is going to be a game breaker down the field. TE Mason Taylor is in his 3rd year starting and is excellent. There is also plenty of depth.
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The Tigers also have the best offensive line in America led by All American LT Will Campbell who both hails from Neville High School in Monroe, Louisiana (my hometown). RB Caleb Jackson flashed a lot of promise as a freshman and is not afraid to break some tackles. He could be a star.
OC Mike Denbrock left to go back to Notre Dame but LSU is in good hands with my guy Joe Sloan calling plays. He earned this promotion after coaching Daniels up to a Heisman Trophy as QB coach the last two years.
LSU is going to have a top 10-15 offense but that's still a big drop off from one of the best of all time.
2) How much can the new staff improve the Defense?
Brian Kelly LITERALLY cleaned house firing DC Matt House (see what I did there) and all of the assistants after the defense allowed over 415 yards & 28 points a game. LSU scored 77 points against Ole Miss & Alabama only to lose both. This unit was ATROCIOUS.
The positives are that LSU did a damn good job with the defensive staff. New DC Blake Baker led a top 10 defense at Mizzou last fall and has deep Louisiana ties (LSU LB Coach iin 2021). He is a great cultural fit.
LSU brought back legendary DB Coach Corey Raymond from Florida. Raymond recruited and developed Patrick Peterson, the Honey Badger & many other studs who were high draft picks in his former LSU days. Kelly also brought highly regarded DL Coach Bo Davis over from Texas.
As for the personnel, LB Harold Perkins is a stud but why the hell is he playing inside?!?!? It makes literally no sense. Just put him on the edge and let him wreak havoc. There is all but a mutiny in the LSU fan base over this & rightfully so.
Other than Perkins, the rest of the unit is ROUGH. DL Mason Smith & Mekhi Wingo bolted to the NFL then LSU struck out in the transfer portal on both the defensive line and secondary. It is shocking to see LSU have so little talent ESP at defensive back. The 2025 recruiting class is currently #1 but that will not help this fall.
The onus is on this coaching staff to try to squeeze every drop out of this unit to improve from 110th to top 50-60. Def easier said than done ESP with a tough schedule.
3) Can LSU break the Week 1 four game losing streak?
LSU has not won their opener since 2019. They open as a 6 point favorite over USC in Las Vegas. This game is far from a gimme out West against a potent Trojans offense with Lincoln Riley calling plays. There's gonna be a wild shoot out in the Vegas desert. First team with a stop wins….
Until LSU wins a big Week 1 game, I have to see it to believe it. And I have no faith in the defense. They fall to USC in a mild upset to open the season.
The Tigers then bounce back with 4 wins in a row against Nicholls, at South Carolina, UCLA & South Alabama to enter the bye week at 4-1.
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That sets up a huge Louisiana Saturday Night Showdown in Death Valley vs. Ole Miss on Oct 12th. I can already smell the bourbon in Tiger Stadium. That atmosphere is gonna be bananas.
As much as I hate to type it, I am giving LSU the benefit of the doubt at home off a bye here in a revenge game from last year's 55-49 Ole Miss win. Luckily I have been wrong many many times before and hope this is another one. The SEC Saturday Night home games in Baton Rouge are still a different deal than anything else in sports.
The Tigers pull out an ugly road win at Arkansas before falling in Aggie Land for their 2nd loss of the season. After their 2nd bye, LSU splits the home game vs. Alabama and the road game at Florida. The Tigers finish off the season with home wins against Vandy & Oklahoma to finish 9-3 for the 3rd straight season under Brian Kelly.
Prediction: LSU will barely miss the 12 team playoff.