Power Ranking Which MLB Manager Will Get Fired Next

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I tried doing this last year and was pretty far off. The only manager who was fired during the season was Gabe Kapler on the Giants and that was with only 3 games in the season.

I do believe this season will be different. There are some horrible teams out there with managers that appear to be running out of possible excuses. Here are the managers I think may not finish the season based on likelihood of getting fired.

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5. Ron Washington

Chances of managing Game 162: 75%

He's in his first season with the team and first season managers outside of the Steinbrenner Yankees of the 80's typically at least get the full year. I remember Tony Perez got the axe from the Reds in 1993 after starting 20-24 in his initial season but I don't have too many other examples in baseball since 1990.

But Washington is 72 years old and he threw a player under the bus last week. I blogged about it here:

If he loses the clubhouse and the Angels are something like 35-65 in late July, is he going to want to keep doing this? My guess is he does finish out the season but is replaced shortly afterwards and this is yet another failed 1 year Angels experiment, much like Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Ian Kinsler.

4. John Schneider

Chances of managing Game 162: 55%

Steve Nesius. Shutterstock Images.

The Blue Jays have been a franchise this decade that has been consistently disappointing. They've been outdoing themselves in 2024. Sitting at 20-25 with a core that includes Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not ideal. Meanwhile, both of them along with Chris Bassitt are free agents after next season. If they are going to win, they need to do it now. 

The Blue Jays fired Charlie Montoya after the 2022 Jays started 46-42. Since then, Schneider has led them to two playoff appearances where they didn't win a game. I honestly think it's already too late for this Blue Jays team. It's bad enough being in a division with the Orioles and Yankees. It's another thing when your players don't play up to potential. They should probably tear everything down and start over.

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3. Bud Black

Chances of managing Game 162: 30%

Maybe they'll wait until after the season to let him go but why not just rip the band-aid off now? The Rockies are 142-228 since 2022. Not only that but Kyle Freeland is still on the IL because Bud Black used him as a pinch-runner and he got into a collision at home plate.

This isn't all Bud Black's fault obviously. Firing a manager here is not going to solve much aside from getting a younger voice in the clubhouse. This is an organization that isn't just bad but also appears to be totally lost. I don't know if there even is a way to win consistently in Colorado? They did make it to the 2007 World Series but how much of that was just getting red hot at the right time? Maybe that could happen again but that's not a recipe for long-term success and really hard to recapture.

I don't know if I've seen a more hopeless MLB franchise in my life than where the Rockies are right now. I've seen worse teams (2003 Tigers, 2013 Astros, 2018 Orioles among others) but those teams at least had some sort of plan.

2. Oli Marmol

Chances of managing Game 162: 25%

Joe Puetz. Getty Images.

The Marmol Era started off well enough with a playoff appearance in his rookie year. Since then, not so much. The Cardinals lost over 90 games last year and are on pace to do it again. It's a bizarre roster filled with old guys and young ones with very few players in their prime. Every pitcher in their starting rotation is 33 or older. Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent at the end of the year but he's playing so badly that he might not get much back in a deadline deal.

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This isn't all Marmol's fault and like the Rockies firing Bud Black, this might not fix much. But as the old saying goes, it's easier to fire a manager than a whole team. It's even easier when the manager is not that great to begin with. Cardinals fans are getting impatient. They have to do something soon.

#1 Pedro Grifol

Chances of managing Game 162: 15%

Brandon Sloter. Getty Images.

The Grifol Era is like the Marmol Era without the playoff appearance and also much, much worse. There is nothing positive you can say about the time Pedro Grifol has been manager of the White Sox. It's been an unmitigated disaster. To make things even worse, the current GM Chris Getz isn't the person who hired Grifol. They do have a connection where they worked together with the Royals but you have to imagine Getz would want his own guy in charge.

Like I said at the beginning of the blog, I was absolutely wrong predicting this last year so if anything, this is likely a giant vote of confidence that these guys all finish the season in uniform. But man, I don't remember too many worse managers and managerial situations than what the White Sox have currently.