The Major Takeaway from Patriots Free Agency: Get Used to Below-Averageness. We're Gonna Be Here a While.
I mean no disrespect to KJ Osborn or the Patriots for signing him. He's a serviceable, capable, solid NFL receiver coming off three straight seasons of between 48 and 65 receptions and 540 to 650 yards, with 15 total touchdowns. Every team can use a guy like him. Including the Patriots.
The problem with this signing is not what it is, it's what it is not. (I've re-read that sentence and can confirm it does makes grammatical sense.) And what Osborn is not, which is the wideout we need. This team is lousy with KJ Obsborns. Their wide receiver room is going to be the live action version of the Spiderman meme:
… only without anyone capable of defeating Doctor Octopus, Sauce Gardner or Tre'Davious White.
Among wideouts with 70 or more targets, Osborne had a Pro Football Focus receiving grade of 54.3. To put that in perspective, it was lower than Tyquan Thornton's. And he represents the splashiest move in free agency by the Patriots under new de facto GM Eliot Wolf so far.
As I say this, I get the irony of a Patriots fan complaining about not making any sexy, attention-grabbing moves. Because a March like this is exactly how the team operated all these years. But like I wrote when free agency began, I wanted Wolf to be the stepdad who earns my love and affection by buying it:
Our birth father won our respect by building us a Dynasty. What was the point of going through all the drama of a divorce and sending him packing if New Dad is just going to give us the same practical gifts - socks, underwear, used toys as Yard Sale prices - as the guy we already loved? We were expecting a whole new approach that would make up for the years of neglect by GM Bill. But so far it's been meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
When he first got named head coach, Jerod Mayo vowed to "burn some cash." When Wolf was promoted, he promised to "weaponize the offense." Besides Osborne, here are the Pats big additions to the worst offense in the NFL:
- Bridge QB Jacoby Brissett
- 3rd down RB Antonio Gibson
- Blocking TE Austin Hooper
- Swing OT Chukwuma Okorafor
- Depth OG Nick Leverett
Plus they've added a couple of defensive players to add into the Front-7 mix, but no one who's going to sell luxury suites.
And yes, they deserve credit for re-signing six of their own free agents. Including the Top 5 on my list. I don't mean to downplay the importance of hanging onto key components like Michael Onwenu, Kyle Dugger and Hunter Henry. It's just that they went into the offseason with $100 million in cap space. Even allowing for these signings and re-signings, they still have the second most cap room at $54.6 million, according to Over the Cap. And still have the most to spend next year, an insane $163 million.
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But I defy anyone to look at this list of names and convince me they represent an improvement for a unit that scored 13.9 points per game last year. Brissett? Sure. I'll concede your point. He's an upgrade over what they had. But so would the plastic QB from Coleco Electric Football:
Meanwhile, the Titans signed Calvin Ridley. The Jets added Tyron Smith. Virtually any free agent who could've helped is long since gone. And market is the talent equivalent of the toilet paper aisle four years ago today.
All of which can only lead us to one logical conclusion. This is going to be a long, slow rebuild.
It's not necessarily the worst idea. When you're the new people who were just put in charge, you have a luxury the old regime did not: Time. With the new hires always comes a grace period. They get to argue that they have a long term vision and ask for patience while they put their plan in place. After all, that's why they got the job to begin with. If they inherited a perfect situation, no change would've been necessary. So they get to put out the "Under Construction. Sorry for Any Inconvenience" sign during the remodel. It's only fair.
Besides, that one time GM Bill threw a bunch of cash around was an outlier. It helped turn a 7-9 team in 2020 to a 10-7 team in 2021 and win him an Executive of the Year award. But Mr. Kraft made it clear he wasn't comfortable with the approach. And how they used to always ridicule teams who tried to build that way instead of patiently drafting and developing young talent. That organizational DNA still remains, even though the man who injected it into the franchise (sorry, that metaphor got away from me) is long gone.
So that is where we are at. There will be no quick fix. No instant gratification. No sugar rush that you get from making headlines with huge, dramatic personnel moves. They're going to have to crush the draft and add a substantial number of impact rookies if this thing is going to be turned around in 2024. But in all likelihood we're looking at a rookie quarterback sitting behind Brissett for a while, and hope left tackle, WR1, and all the other holes get filled in the later rounds. Which is highly unlikely. And unless and until other big names come here via trade, another 4-13 year feels more likely than anything close to .500. So get comfortable. This'll take a lot more time than we were hoping.