Old Balls' Ranking of the Patriots Must-Keep Free Agents

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Welp, that offseason was fun while it lasted. 

The NFL in its infinite wisdom, has decided that their calendar has to be pretty much like a season of youth hockey. You get a big buildup to the end of the year. Everyone gets a few days off. Then it's back to the grind for the next 51 straight weeks. 

No sooner has Brittany Mahomes' IV-drip of hangover-curing electrolytes worn off than tomorrow unofficially kicks off NFL free agency period. We're still about three weeks away from team's being able to talk to available players. But starting Tuesday they can being talking to their own, and have until March 5th to start slapping Franchise Tags on guys. So it's as good a time as any to look at the Patriots hand, see what they're holding, which cards to keep and which to discard. 

If there's a single reason why this year it's Eliot Wolf splashing the chips and not Bill Belichick, it's this factoid that gets mentioned a lot, but still bears repeating: The last time the Patriots gave a second contract to someone they drafted in the first three rounds, it was Duron Harmon. Whom they took in 2013. The rookie classes from 2013-19 included 22 such players, including five 1st rounders. All of them were deemed unworthy of keeping around beyond their rookie deal and were either released, traded, or allowed to walk. If they'd hit on even half of them, we'd be selling shirts with clever slogans about Belichick passing Don Shula instead of this. Which you should buy:

Which brings us to this year's crop of Pats players who are at the end of their 2020 rookie contracts or free agent deals. And one charming, attractive silver fox's priority list of who needs to be kept. In descending order of importance:

1. Michael Onwenu

Onwenu was the absolute steal of that 2020 draft in New England. Another example of the franchise's genius for finding talent among the late round picks it's traditionally stockpiled. Coming as he did with the 182nd pick and making an impact right away, I think I can say without any fear of contradiction whatsoever that he is the best 6th pick out of Michigan in team history. [Pause for ironic effect. Annnd resume.] The Patriots offensive line was nothing short of a Bruckheimerian disaster early on in the season, until they made the switch of kicking Onwenu from guard out to right tackle. And while no one would mistake them for Joe Gibbs' Hoggs of the '80s, they settled down for the most part and became a functioning, professional O-line, despite having mid-round rookies at both guard spots. There's a school of thought that says the Pats were reluctant to move Onwenu to tackle because he's in a contract year and they're much more expensive than guards. But Belichick's refusal to add a viable tackle alternative, either in the 2023 draft or in free agency, made it a must. And now he's going to get paid. With Trent Brown now predictably off the roster, this is the one legitimate NFL OT on the roster. It's not about saying we can't afford him. It's about acknowledging we can't afford to lose him. 

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2. Kyle Dugger

Schefter makes a fair point about Franchising Dugger. He's as important to Jerod Mayo's defense as Onwenu is to his offense. But Franchised safeties are much more cost effective than OTs. He's been making everybody's Top Free Agents Available list (he's No. 20 on Pro Football Focus), and has unquestionably emerged as one of their most dependable defenders. Dugger led the unit in total snaps with over 1,100 and solo tackles, with 79. He was also one of three Patriots to have over 100 combined tackles. And in addition to run support, has shown to be versatile enough to cover tight ends and backs as well as rush the passer (15 total pressures). Moreover, he's the leader at the back end of a defense that was able to lose Devin McCourty to retirement without a huge drop off. Dugger would be tough if not impossible to replace in a scheme that relies heavily on the back end of its secondary.

3. Hunter Henry

Let's not put to fine a point on this. Henry hasn't exactly been a major superweapon that upsets the balance of power in the AFC and leaves defensive coordinators reaching for the anti-depressants. But he has been capable. A fairly dependable dual-threat tight end who's a reliable blocker, and a possession receiver with good hands who's productive in the red zone. His production has also declined each season he's been in New England, as has the offense writ large. That to me makes him sort of a depreciated asset who can be had for reasonable money. At least one would think. The counter-factual on that is this is a trash year for free agent tight ends. It's more or less Henry and Dalton Schultz and a bunch of droids. So it's possible that some team just looking for a third or fourth option and can afford to overpay would outbid the Pats. Add to the fact that he came to Foxboro and immediately bonded with Mac Jones, who's now a pariah and didn't even dress for the last game might be incentive enough for him to look for a more stable environment at the age of 29.

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4. Anfernee Jennings

Putting Jennings here at No. 4 might be controversial. And even a month into this season I wouldn't have dreamed I was rating him this high. By that point, he was just another wasted Round 3 2020 pick along with those two tight ends who didn't last beyond two seasons. But when Matt Judon was lost for the season, Jennings got his shot and proved himself worthy. In fact, he established himself as a versatile, 3-down edge player in the mold of Judon. His best moments came midseason, when he followed up a 6 tackle effort against Indy with a 2 sacks, 4 hurries domination of the Giants. You still don't ever want him in coverage (17 receptions on 17 targets, which … checks the math … is a completion percentage of 100.0). But his snap count increased as the year went on and he had five tackles in three of the last four games. If you want someone who can set an edge on one rep and chase a QB out of the pocket on the next, he's your guy. I can easily see him bookending Judon for years to come. 

5. Kendrick Bourne

If I was going strictly by who I like best, Bourne would be right near the top of this ranking. He's been a good soldier here throughout his 3-year Pats career. And last year before he got hurt, he'd emerged as the best wideout on the roster. But that's one of those World's Tallest Hobbits debates. By Bourne's own admission, he wasn't the most dedicated athlete before last year, and needed to get his personal shit sorted out. Which maybe goes to explain why he had spent so much time checked into Matt Patricia's Maison Chien. But assuming he hasn't alienated Mayo along the way, he's deserving of a zero risk, high upside Prove It deal as a subpackage, spread offense guy. Which he sounds interested in.

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Here's a bar bet you can win, provided you're making it against someone who is not smart or sexually desirable enough to be reading my posts. You know who led the Patriots in receptions in 2023? Ezekiel Elliot. He also led the team in rushing yards. And was third among all offensive skill position guys in total snaps, behind only Henry and DeVante Parker. Which is as much a testament to Elliot as it is an indictment of how weirdly constructed this roster was. Hell, they didn't even add him until July. There's just not much of a market - and even less respect - for 28 year old power runners. Productive though he may have been. I wouldn't mind at all seeing him come back. But if the running back depth chart consists of nothing but Elliot and Rhamondre Stevenson, I'm going into a medically induced coma until the season is over. 

7. Mike Gesicki

Remember when Gesicki did this? Yeah, that was great. Now name something else he did. He took as many passing snaps as practically skill position guy on the offense. And finished with 5 more receiving yards than Stevenson. 

8. Josh Uche

It says everything that this highlight is from his breakout season on 2022. Because in 2023 he broke right back in again. (I know that sentence didn't exactly stick the landing, but I'm leaving it.) Uche has established my worst fear for him when he was drafted. And that is he's a Johnny One Note who can rush the passer on occasion, flash brilliantly at times, but otherwise is a liability. He's too undersized and gets run at any time he's not in an obvious position to pin his ears back and attempt to quick-twitch a tackle off the edge. Unless there has been a major change in philosophy, there's no room for a specialist in Mayo's defense. And guys like him get paid way out of proportion to their actual value. 

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9. Myles Bryant

The Pats primary slot corner saw a ton of reps last season. And gave up receptions at a rate of 79.7%. Which is not even the worst mark of his career (82.9% in 2021). I've never understood the coaches' affinity for him. But somewhere out there in the United States is a slot corner who is capable of successfully slot cornering a receiver once in every four targets. Find that person. And let us remember Bryant for that time he made Taylor Swift yell "Fuck" on TV instead of all the completions.