It's Looking Like a Mortal Lock Mac Jones Will Start Sunday. And He Should.

Typically for any NFL team, the bye week is a time of rest, rehab, and quiet reflection. For the Patriots under the Belichick Regime, it's always been a time of self-scouting. Seeing what they've done well that you can build upon, and what they've done poorly that needs improving as they head into the stretch run of the race to win the AFC East and capture home field throughout the playoffs. 

But that's a privilege they no longer enjoy. This bye week has been all about diagnosing a moderate-to-severe case of Mac Jones Disease after symptoms flared up in the Frankfurt game. 

In the aftermath, if you'd polled Patriots fans what to do about Jones, easily 90% of them would've been in favor of benching him, if not giving him his outright release. And the other 10% were evenly split among those who still believe in Jones and want to see him fixed, and those who would like to see him ritually sacrificed to Moloch so that we may have a bountiful harvest in the spring. One that includes Caleb Williams. 

Personally, I was the one in the poll who always answers "Undecided." In so far as I'm among the 5% who still want to see Jones fixed, but I was also fine with a benching as the best way to buy him some time to get himself right in the head. Still, it's been a situation that could've gone in any direction, none of them particularly hopeful. Stick with Jones, who got benched for the third time after throwing the worst pass I've seen since a preseason one that came out of Tim Tebow's hand sideways like a wet Nerf Ball at the beach. Turn to Bailey Zappe, who set a record for Least Convincing Fake Spike that will never be broken, followed by an interception that was perhaps 3% better than Jones' terrible pass:

Or Will Grier, who literally hasn't taken a snap in a real game since his rookie season in 2019. So it's like picking your favorite one of The Three Stooges, but the only options you're given are Shemp, Joe, or Curly Joe. (With apologies to anyone who doesn't get the references. But that's a brilliant analogy. Take it out on your father for not exposing you to the Stooges. I did my part for my sons. And they grew up to appreciate Larry, for being the ultimate Glue Guy who made it all work. Now back to the Patriots.) 

Bill O'Brien was asked, and did what any Patriots assistant would do, and that's respect the chain of command. While acknowledging that there are only so many reps to go around, and they aren't enough to get three QBs ready. Meaning that once we got a glimpse of some practice reps, that would answer the story. And it didn't exactly:

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So I guess it's safe to say those dozens of Americans desperate to see the Will Grier Era begin at last will just have to keep waiting. But other than that, it's sort of inconclusive. At least in terms of what the brief media portion of practice could tell us. 

But there's one aspect of life following this team that you can always count on at a time like this to tell you the story. The public relations:

That's all we need to know. There's simply no way Belichick would send his quarterback to the wolves like this, force him to answer all the pointed questions about his performance and his confidence and his future, or how damaged his relationship to his coaches and his team after reports that he's lost 80% of the locker room:

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… only to have game day come and tell him to grab a Microsoft Surface and go stand over there and not bother anybody. Never in a billion years would he do that to a guy. Not even to throw off the Giants. And certainly not as some sort of penance for missing open receivers in the end zone. If Belichick truly thought there was a better option at QB, that option would be available for the press Wednesday. 

And to be fair to Jones, I still think he is fixable. He bears a lot of the blame for how sideways things have gone, to be sure. This isn't me arguing he's just a victim of circumstances beyond his control. But much of what started his spiral has been out of his control in any practical sense. Look at these metrics:

And these analytics don't account for the throws like the one he put on DeVante Parker's hands during crunch time in Las Vegas. Dropped. The bomb he put into Jalen Reagor's hands in the Commander's game. Dropped. Or the one he put safely a foot off the ground into Juju Smith-Schuster's hands against Washington that was flipped up in the air for an interception. 

What has happened here as Jones has been fed steady doses of bad pass protection, awful route running and toxic pass catching, is that he's broken down. Mechanically. Mentally. Emotionally. And while maybe some truly elite quarterbacks might be able to produce under these circumstances, it wouldn't take you long to call the roll. 

I think the fact Jones is taking first team reps and meeting with reporters is because the coaching staff acknowledges that his performances have been a result of terrible play at all levels of this offense, not the cause of it. And he's still the best option they have. 

For now. At least until they land Caleb Williams.