Primetime Unders Are The Hottest Trend In Football: NFL Week 4 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon).
So far the stats have been downright awful this season. Three straight losing weeks giving me a 5-10 record. But I have a good feeling this is the week that turns things around.
Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
CLE -2.5
T 40.5
Plain and simple, you cannot give the Baltimore Ravens points. Jon Harbaugh thrives as an underdog. The Ravens are 19-3-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog and 14-4 ATS as a dog in divisional matchups. Last week was ugly, but they can bounce back here.
The Stats Say: Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, 0-2-1 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
CIN -2.5
T 40.5
Mike Vrabel is one of the best bounce back coaches in the NFL. They got blown out last week, which is great news for them this week. Under him, the TItans are 10-4-2 ATS (11-5 SU) coming off a double digit loss, including 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog in that spot. Vrabel is also 10-6 ATS as a home dog.
The Stats Say: Titans
Miami Dolphins (3-0, 3-0 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BUF -3
T 53.5
These two teams love shootouts. The over has hit in 8 of their last 9 matchups in Buffalo with an average of 57 PPG. The Dolphins have also gone over in 5 straight as underdogs. This will also just a be a very fun over to bet.
The Stats Say: Over
New England Patriots (1-2, 1-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
DAL -6.5
T 43.5
The Cowboys are coming off an embarassing loss. And I think the Patriots are kind of okay. But the stats support the Cowboys here. Dak is 22-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points. And Dallas is Cowboys is 9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike McCarthy. Might be the one good thing he does as a coach.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -9.5
T 42.5
Let's start with how bad Zach Wilson is. The under is 8-1 in his last 9 starts, with none going over 40 points. But then this stat is genuinely stunning. The under is 24-3 in the last 27 primetime games. It felt like that was a trend by I was shocked when I actually did the math and figured out severe it was. This has 31-10 Chiefs win written all over it.
The Stats Say: Under
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
