Stop Making Doug Pederson A Home Underdog: NFL Week 2 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon).
Last week was not a great start to the year as I started off 1-4, so let's look to bounce back this week.
Seattle Seahawks (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DET -5.5
T 47
Was shocked to see the total only at 47 in this one. 8 of the Lions 9 home games last season had over 47 points, with an average of 58 PPG. And the last two times these two teams played have been total shootouts. There was a total of 93 points in last year. And 80 points the year before. Seattle's defense looked absolutely awful last week and we know the Lions aren't the 85 Bears. Expect a lot of points.
The Stats Say: Over
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
KC -3
T 51.5
This line seems borderline disrespectful to the Jaguars. As long as they keep getting points, you should keep taking them. Jacksonville was 5-0 both SU and ATS as a home dog last season. And going back to his days in Philly, Doug Pederson has covered 10 straight games in that spot. The Chiefs also don't start as hot as they used to, covering just one of their last 7 September games
The Stats Say: Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
CIN -3.5
T 46.5
This could be a prime bounce back spot for Cincinnati. Since 2014, teams that lose by double digits in Week 1 (like the Bengals) are 39-22-1 ATS in Week 2. And Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS off a loss in his career.
The Stats Say: Bengals
New York Jets (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
DAL -9.5
T 39.5
This is a big spread for the Cowboys to cover against a Jets team that still isn't awful despite the Rodgers injury. But Dak Prescott usually covers big spreads. He's 15-8-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more in his career.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
MIA -2.5
T 46.5
The Patriots have low key become a solid over bet. The over is 10-4 in Mac Jones last 14 home games. And we obviously know the Dolphins can score points and allow points. Miami has gone over in 8 of their last 9 road games with an average of 57 PPG. I think we can definitely see a minimum of 47 points in this one.
The Stats Say: Over
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
