Justin Steele Has Quietly Put Himself At The Forefront Of The NL Cy Young Conversation
This year‘s National League Cy Young race is one of the most wide-open that I can remember. Over the last decade, you can almost guarantee that Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, or Jacob deGrom will be on the shortlist. That hasn’t been the case this year. The pitch clock and all the new rules have forced many pitchers to adjust. Some have, some have not. But when I was looking at the list of National League Leaders in all the major statistics, one name stood out: Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele.
OK, I swear I’m not just writing this blog because Justin Steele was on Picks Central and in the Barstool offices last week. He’s having a legitimately great year. I’ve never met the guy, if I felt like he didn’t deserve a Cy Young Award, I’d say it, but he’s been legitimately fantastic. I like to pride myself on being somebody who keeps up with as much as he possibly can when it comes to baseball. But when Justin Steele stepped into the Barstool offices and sat on the Picks Central broadcast, it took me a minute to figure out who he was. He’s kept his head down all year and pitched some phenomenal baseball for a Cubs team chasing the Brewers in the National League Central division.
When you look at Justin Steele's Baseball Savant page, it's not like anything blows you away. He does not give up hard contact, which is a huge advantage when pitching at a park like Wrigley Field. He doesn't throw particularly hard, and he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect out of the Cy Young caliber pitcher. But Steele is a grinder. He just keeps getting outs. He currently leads the National League in wins, win percentage, and ERA+ plus. His peripheral numbers are solid as well. His FIP is just above three, and he's commanded the ball well this year. In previous seasons, he had some issues with his walk rate. In his third full season this year, his walks per nine is 2.0.
Can I put Steele as the current Cy Young front-runner? He's close but probably not number one on the list. Blake Snell has pitched great this season, though his walk rate scares me. He actually leads the National League in walks. I don't remember when a pitcher won a Cy Young leading the league in that category. You have pitchers like Logan Webb and Zac Gallen, who are having excellent years out in the National League West, but neither has an ERA under three. Also, as much as people might try to deny it, the market you play in matters.
What made Sandy Alcantara's Cy Young campaign from a season ago so incredible was that he ran away with it on a team that many people weren't paying attention to. Nine times out of 10 that is not the case. With the Cubs being competitive this season, Justin Steele will have more eyeballs on him. I can't put them as the Cy Young favorite, but he will have an excellent opportunity to pitch his way into that arena.  I'd consider putting out a gambling future on them. If the Cubs win the division, he'll be a massive reason for that. If they take care of business, the NL Cy Young may be his to lose. 
