Fred VanVleet Decides To Once Again Bet On Himself And Becomes The First Big Name To Hit The Open Market This Summer

John Fisher. Getty Images.

While Woj is right that this is the first big domino of the summer to drop, it most certainly shouldn't be a surprise. That's not just a Fred VanVleet thing, that's an any NBA player thing who finds himself in a similar position.

Unless you're an older player or someone coming off injury, turning down the player option as FVV did here is basically a formality. He most certainly won't be the only potential free agent to do this nor is it surprising he went this route. 

Most guys to do this have either played above their current salary in terms of value, others may want a long term deal. The point is, it would be very surprising if nearly every single one of these guys below didn't turn down their player options this summer 

Turning down a player option certainly doesn't guarantee that player is leaving either. All it really does is just open things up to suitors as a way to maybe put pressure on the current team to pony up. There's also the whole sign & trade angle. The risk of course is now that asset can leave for nothing, but that's the risk you take when you're unable to reach an earlier extension and you decide to not trade that player at the previous trade deadline.

The Raptors decided to not try and flip VanVleet this past February, so now they have some decisions to make. For starters, it's not as if they're going to have a ton of money available to them to replace FVV in terms of straight cash, even if he walks. They aren't projected to have any cap space and only have the the midlevel and bi-annual exceptions to work with. Not only that, but you can see in that graphic above that another Raptors in Gary Trent Jr also has the same player option for this summer

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The next question is what teams have legit cap space that also need a point guard? As a refresher, here's the market as we enter free agency

Now remember, if you're looking at homes for FVV and look at this group, a team that has the cash to burn doesn't have to agree to work a S&T. Sometimes it happens as a way for both teams to do another a solid, but there is no obligation to. Anyone who doesn't have the cap space and wants to get into the FVV business will have to figure out a S&T that works with whatever his new salary ends up being. 

Of that list, I guess you could make the case for teams like the Rockets who are being linked to Harden/Kyrie for their point guard spot. I could see the Spurs making some sense. The Thunder, Pistons, Pacers and Magic don't really need a point guard in my opinion, so to me this is either looking like FVV comes back to Toronto or ends up being a S&T. This is where you'll probably start to hear teams like PHX (if CP3 dips), PHI (if Harden dips), DAL (if Kyrie dips), CHI (if Lonzo never comes back), LAC (if Westbrook isn't back), LAL (if DLo isn't back) etc. Depending on what you think about Harden, I'd say VanVleet is no lower than 3rd in terms of the best point guard free agents potentially available in this class, so he'll obviously have a market. What the price ends up being is the bigger question.

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Entering his age 29 season, you'd be investing in a smaller guard who hasn't really been all that efficient these last few years. Since that title run, FVV is averaging just 39/36% splits over 240 regular season games and 38/37% over 15 playoff games. When he's on, it seems like he'll never miss. But the offensive shooting droughts are also something that exist with him. He overcomes that by being a plus playmaker and a pesky defender for his size, but there are limitations there. The question is more what else are you putting around him and how do you feel he ages as he crosses over into his 30s. NBA history with smaller type offensive guards who rely on quickness isn't exactly kind. 

If there are no real S&T offers that make the Raptors better, it wouldn't shock me if we see them pony up to keep FVV and then try and move him later. That way you at least protect your asset and don't lose him for nothing with no real way to replace a player of his caliber. Considering they're also going to have to go through this with Gary Trent Jr, unless the Raptors are about to smash that rebuild button and also move OG/Siakam, it wouldn't shock me if they kept one and then S&T'd the other, whichever brings back the better package.