2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Primer

Steven Cheah4/27/2023 9:10 PM

Chris Trotman. Getty Images.

The NFL Draft is not technically a sporting event, but you can still bet on it. How great is that?! Hopefully I'm your go-to for this type of stuff. Not only because I'm a huge NFL Draft guy, but because I went 9-1 last year in my NFL Draft Prop Bet Primer.

NOTE: Betting on the Draft is NOT legal in all Sportsbook states. It IS legal here: AZ, CO, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, TN, and WV

All lines provided by $Penn Entertainment/The Barstool Sportsbook and are subject to move

You may click on any of the hyperlined titles to each bet and they'll take you to exactly where you can bet them. If it doesn't work, it was either removed or you're not in a legal state.

Also, for terminology:

OVER = picked at lower in the draft, so FARTHER from the #1 pick

UNDER = picked higher in the draft and CLOSER to the #1 pick

Without further ado, here are my Favorite NFL Draft Props:

6) The Falcons to take a Defensive Lineman with their 1st pick in the Draft (-112)

The Falcons are picking 8th and they have a lot of needs. This is the earliest Texas RB Bijan Robinson could go, but their rookie RB out of BYU, Tyler Allgeier was so productive last season. They also still have Cordarrelle Patterson, so that pick doesn't make sense to me. Looking at pass rushers, they are a bare cupboard. As currently constructed, they've got Bud Dupree and Arnold Ebiketie rushing off the edge. I like them to take a Defensive Lineman with Lukas Van Ness or Nolan Smith being the most likely to go.

5) OVER 3.5 Wide Receivers selected in the 1st Round (-143)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison are all big favorites to go in the 1st Round. If that happens, this cashes. In a league in which you need playmakers to be successful, I think these four go tonight.

4) OVER 1.5 Runningbacks selected in the 1st Round (-182)

This has picked up a lot of steam this week with Texas' Bijan Robinson seemingly a lock to go in the 1st Round, but there has been momentum for Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs going Round 1 too. There is a murderer's row of teams that could use an RB at the end of Round 1 with the Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, Saints, and Eagles all picking from #26 - #30. A lot of juice for sure, but everyone in the industry seems to think this is a wrap.

3) Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon UNDER 6.5 (-104)

The Lions traded CB Jeff Okudah to the Falcons and are not prepared to stop Justin Jefferson, Christian Watson, and D.J. Moore. Witherspoon is a midwest guy that's been linked to Detroit for weeks. At UNDER 6.5, we not only get Detroit at #6, but if someone tries to jump Detroit for him.

UPDATE: This has moved to -250 since I put it out last night. I do not like at that number but if it gets reasonable, pounce on it.

2) Minnesota Vikings to Draft a WR with their 1st pick (+200)

Adam Thielen is in Carolina now so they've got Justin Jefferson and not much else. K.J. Osborn has shown he's not much more than a #3 and they've had all the top WRs in for visits. I think this is both great value and a great bet at +200.

1) Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud to be the 2nd Quarterback taken (+150)

I just DO NOT buy that Will Levis is the Colts guy and that is known publicly. It makes no sense with the 3rd pick being publicly up for sale. It would almost invite Will Levis teams to jump Indy to get their guy. CJ Stroud is viewed as one of the top two QBs in the Draft and with Bryce Young going 1st, it's only natural that Stroud go 2nd. The fact we can get great odds on this is a plus. Don't buy into the Will Levis smoke screen! This bet also gives us runway for a team trading up for Stroud (watch out for Las Vegas or Tennessee), so I like this much better than Stroud going 4th.

UPDATE: This has moved all the way to -200 since I tweeted it out last night. Don't think it's great value at that but pay attention to this line as it comes closer.

The below are purely long shots I feel have good value. Please bet responsibly.

5) Boston College WR Zay Flowers to be the 1st Wide Receiver Drafted (+350)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear favorite to be the 1st WR off the board, but Zay Flowers has a lot of fans around the league. JSN's injury history may scare some teams off and Flowers was productive even without top tier talent at Boston College. I've hit this prop big twice in the last three years (didn't bet it w/ Ja'Marr Chase who was clear favorite, but hit on Henry Ruggs and Drake London). I think this is good value and JSN's odds are too high.

4) Cincinnati Bengals to Draft a Runningback with their 1st selection (+500)

Our own Matt Fitzgerald penned that Gibbs would be a great fit in Cincy and with Joe Mixon a potential post-draft cut, this makes sense. They're also in the lineup of teams that could take an RB at the end of the 1st and if Bijan Robinson falls into the 20s, they're a potential trade up candidate. Good odds at +500, so worth a sprinkle.

3) Los Angeles Chargers to Draft a Runningback with their 1st selection (+1400)

Austin Ekeler has asked for a trade and the Bolts don't have much behind him that would give you confidence. I mocked this as a landing spot for Bijan Robinson, but this is probably where Jahmyr Gibbs watch should start. With his pass catching prowess, he'd be a great Plan B if Ekeler is dealt.

2) Kentucky QB Will Levis to be the 10th overall pick (+4000)

This is a bit of a dart throw, but at 40:1, it's worth a couple of bucks. No, I do not think the Eagles will be drafting a QB at #10, but this is a hot spot for a team trying to leapfrog the Titans who are in the market for a QB. If you're a team in the teens, this will likely be the spot you need to get to and Levis figures to go around here.

1) Washington Commanders to Draft a Tight End with their 1st selection (+1200)

Just some dot connecting, but the new Offensive Coordinator of the Commanders is Eric Bieniemy. He was the Chiefs OC for years and had Travis Kelce at his disposal. Picking at #16, this also figures to be the area that Utah TE Dalton Kincaid could go, who has been compared to Kelce. Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer also a possibility. While I don't necessarily think this will happen, the value is too good to pass up.