Doug Pederson Is Back As A Playoff Underdog: Stats And Trends For NFL Wild Card Weekend
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every week during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week.
YTD: 43-30-3
7. Seattle Seahawks (9-8, 7-10 ATS) @ 2. San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 11-6 ATS)
4:30 PM on FOX
SF -9.5
T 42.5
The 49ers own January. They are 18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 January games. And they’ve also covered 8 straight against NFC West opponents. They should be able to cover this one by double digits.
The Stats Say: 49ers
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, 11-5-1 ATS) @ 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 8-8-1 ATS)
8:15 PM on NBC
LAC -1.5
T 47.5
It's a new chance to bet on Doug Pederson as a playoff dog. In his career when getting points in the playoffs, Pederson is a perfect 5-0. And going back to last season, the Jaguars have covered 5 straight as home underdogs.
The Stats Say: Jaguars
7. Miami Dolphins (9-8, 9-8 ATS) @ 2. Buffalo Bills (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BUF -9.5
T 46.5
The play here is the Bills team total over 27.5 points. In their last 11 home games, the Bills are averaging 32 PPG at home, scoring more than 27 in 9 of them. And the Dolphins are allowing 31 PPG on the road this season. This number just feels way too low.
The Stats Say: Bills team total over
6. New York Giants (9-7-1, 13-4 ATS) @ 3. Minnesota Vikings (13-4, 7-9-1 ATS)
4:30 PM on FOX
MIN -3
T 48.5
I might be biased as a Giants fan, but the stats aren't. This has been a great spot for Daniel Jones throughout his career. He's 16-5 ATS as a road dog. And the Giants thankfully avoided 1 PM Kirk Cousins. He’s 21-32 ATS at all other start times.
The Stats Say: Giants
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-7, 6-9-2 ATS) @ 3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4, 12-3-1 ATS)
8:15 pm on NBC
CIN -7
T 41.5
The Bengals have gone under in 8 straight playoff games. The Ravens have gone under in 4 straight playoff games. And overall, the under is usually a pretty safe bet this round. The under is 49-31 in the Wild Card Round since 2003.
The Stats Say: Under
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 9-7-1 ATS) @ 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, 4-12-1 ATS)
8:15 PM on ABC/ESPN
DAL -2.5
T 45.5
This is a weird trend, but it's too severe to ignore. Tom Brady is 2-16 ATS in his last 18 games that start at 8 PM or later. AndDak Prescott has covered 61% of the time as a road favorite in his career (17-11-1 ATS).
The Stats Say: Cowboys
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
