Geno Smith Gets His Revenge Against The Jets Today, And The Bears Will Lie Down Against Detroit. 5 Plays I Can Feel In My Plums For NFL Week 17

Dante1/01/2023 5:04 PM

An absolutely brutal week last weekend with the Vikings and Atlanta missing covers each by a point, and a push on Philly. Nailed the Houston upset, nearly the exact score, but a 1-3-1 week might have knocked me out of some of the Super Contest money, right down at the wire. I jinxed myself again, by calling it, and still posting anyway. But whatever. That's betting the NFL this year. Been crazy.

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New Orleans Saints (6-9, 6-9 ATS at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2, 8-7 ATS) -7 (42)

For Philly, today, in addition to Hurts being out, they are also missing Lane Johnson and Avonte Maddox.

New Orleans gets back their two studs Marshon Lattimore, and leading receiver Chris Olave.

All Philly needs to do today is win to secure home-field throughout the playoffs. Which I think they'll do, but without Hurts and his mobility, I think New Orleans is able to keep it close.

THE PLAY = Saints +7
Saints 21
Eagles 27

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8, 7-8 ATS) at Houston Texans (2-12, 7-7 ATS) +4 (43)

That fact in Schefter's tweet is amazing. For an NFL team to accomplish that in week 17 is almost unheard of.

But in terms of betting this game, I like the Jaguars,

The haters may be quick to point out that's stupid because Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite.

They've lost the last 9 matchups in this series to Houston.

But none of that matters because Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are on fire this month. They've won 3 out of their last 4 and before last week's horrific weather game, Lawrence had thrown 15 TDs in a row without a pick. Meaning he's taking better care of the football.

I think the Jags have success in the air and on the ground today and win this one pretty easily.

THE PLAY = Jaguars -4

Jaguars 27
Texans 19

Chicago Bears (3-12, 5-9 ATS) at Detroit Lions (7-8, 10-5 ATS) -6 (52.5)

Really don't want this to be a jinx, but only the Chicago Bears would be putting Justin Fields out there to play the final two meaningless games when he's dealing with both a shoulder and foot injury. And not to mention a loss today locks up the #2 pick in the 2023 draft and gives them a shot at the #1. So the brain trust of Eberflus and co. should limit his exposure and designed runs. Which is why I also like the prop - JUSTIN FIELDS UNDER 74.5 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS -106.

Detroit is playing for their first trip to return to the playoffs since Rome fell.

The Bears defense is being held together by scotch tape and paperclips at this point. Arguably the worst in the NFL, They only had 4 opening-day defensive starters on the field in last week's 35-13 loss at home to Buffalo.

Jared Goff plays extremely well at home in the Ford Field dome, and with the Bears corners being as shitty as they are, I think he goes off today.

THE PLAY = Lions -6
Bears 20
Lions 33

Denver Broncos (4-11, 6-9 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-3, 6-9 ATS) - 13 (45)

The Nathaniel Hackett era is over. Midseason coaching moves almost always result in an offensive bump for some reason so that bodes well for Denver here. They also made a nice late-game push against the Chiefs when they played a couple weeks ago in Week 14 and only lost by six points.

Also, the Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their last five meetings against an opponent from the AFC West. And 13 points is a shit ton.

Another prop I like today is RUSSELL WILSON OVER 14.5 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS -111. In his last 3 games he's hit 17 rush yards and 8 of his last 11 games. Including 57 last week.

THE PLAY = Broncos +13
Broncos 23
Chiefs 33

N.Y. Jets 7-8, 8-7 ATS at Seattle Seahawks (7-8, 6-9 ATS) +2 (43.5)

The Jets get Mike White back for this game today, which should elevate their offensive potential. Emphasis on should.

White threw 3 TD passes in his 1st start this season, but none in the 2 since then.

But the bigger news is Geno Smith gets to face his old team today, and he's got way more firepower on his side of the ball.

The only way I can see the Jets winning this game today is by pounding the ball against the Seahawks poor run-defense. But I think Geno will get Seatlle out to a lead early enough that the Jets will rely on White and the passing attack, which will play into Seattle's hand.

THE PLAY = Seahawks +2
Jets 21
Seahawks 23

Good luck to everybody! Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.