Cooper Kupp Going On IR Highlights The Severe Downside Of The Rams' All-In To Win Now Paradigm
Were I a lazier writer, I could probably just say, "When you stack your roster as top-heavy as the Los Angeles Rams do, that house of cards can collapse with one catastrophic injury."
I suppose that's one of the main points you can take away from this, but it's a little more complicated than that TLDR snapshot. Because sure, losing an elite player at a premium position is going to fuck you up no matter who you are. Cooper Kupp is as singularly responsible for a team’s offensive success as any wide receiver in the entire NFL. It’s as if Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay aren’t aware that there are other eligible pass-catchers on the field when Kupp is in action. That said, I’ve never failed to be impressed by Stafford targeting Kupp at such an insane rate. Just like he used to do with Calvin Johnson in Detroit, even when the defense knows that’s where the ball is going, Stafford slings it in there anyway. McVay deserves props, too, for scheming and designing ways for Kupp to draw favorable matchups and run wide-open when you’d think opposing defenses would do all they can to stop him.
So that’s a long-winded way of saying there’s no replacing Kupp, and the Rams' season is fucked. They are tracking to be one of the worst defending Super Bowl champions of all-time. Seriously. Not since the 2003 Buccaneers has a team lifted the Lombardi Trophy and had a losing record the following year. This 3-6 LA group is on the precipice of one of the greatest collapses in modern NFL history. It's precisely what the team's biggest detractors were warning about even as the Rams did nothing but consistently win under McVay.
I personally thought before the season the Rams were destined to continue their ascent and achieve the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Look how weak the conference is even now. I also thought Kupp hitting his Over 1350.5 receiving yards prop was one of the betting locks of the year based on the sheer volume of work he’d keep getting. Instead, they’ve had cluster injuries to the interior o-line, Matthew Stafford has taken a beating behind Pro Football Focus' 30th-ranked pass blocking unit, and was out last week in concussion protocol. Now, Kupp has succumbed to a nagging ankle injury that’ll require surgery.
The Season From Hell is one way to describe it. I still think the Rams have the star power to bounce back in a big way in 2023. To be clear, too, I love their all-in mentality and how they spit in the stupid faces of nerds who'd rather go to the Divisional Round five years in a row and never advance over winning a Super Bowl. The whole NFL acronym of "Not For Long" is so true, and LA has already won a championship, so what GM Les Snead and the front office have done is valid and vindicated.
However, we’re seeing the ugly side of what things look like when you concentrate your money to pay barely over a handful of key players. Here's who's on the books for what in 2023, per Spotrac:
Entering the offseason before inevitable contract restructures, LA has only $6.8 million in cap room for 2023 and $7.5 million for 2024. Alarmingly low figures across two years.
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Beyond those guys, there aren’t a lot of premium funds invested in other key positions other than offensive tackle with Joseph Noteboom and Rob Havenstein, who've been solid but aren't near the level of retired legend Andrew Whitworth. LA has a dearth of quality depth in many key areas. They’re the football equivalent of a crash-and-burn Hollywood trajectory. Wildly entertaining, epic highs, but the lows are just as dramatic and the overall lifestyle isn't the most sustainable to say the least.
Maybe that's why McVay is allegedly set to bail once that core is broken up. He seems at peace with living that way and getting off the wild ride before it crushes his spirit and love for the game.
For everything to go swimmingly for the Rams amid the Snead-driven "Fuck Them Picks" era, they’re forced to rely on a group of mid-to-late-round draft picks and unheralded players to fill out key spots. They also can’t really afford injuries to any of the aforementioned players, much less underperformance. Welp, that’s tough when no one can block in the offensive trenches, when the splashy free agent Robinson fails to come close to justifying his price tag, and when arguably the most important piece to the puzzle, Kupp, plays hurt for multiple weeks and then finally gets knocked out of action for an extended period of time.
What sucks for the Rams hardest is that Kupp is out a minimum of four weeks, they’ve already had their bye, and it’s not like they can tank for a higher draft pick. Their move to acquire Stafford means that Detroit has their first-rounder this year. LA doesn’t have another Day 1 draft selection until 2024, which would be their first since 2016 when they took Lions QB Jared Goff first overall.
Raise your hand if, before the season, you predicted that Detroit would be ahead of the Rams in the NFC standings through Week 10. It’s just a rough scene right now for Kupp, McVay, Snead and Co. The most dismaying part of it all is that help in any form will be hard to find.
I'm fascinated to see if the Rams stay the course, actually hold onto their 2024 first-round pick and have at least some eye toward the future. Have a feeling Snead and McVay are just gonna triple down, regroup after a rough 2022 campaign and try to go Scorched Earth on the NFL again next year. Their reported attempt to trade two first-rounders and a second-rounder for Panthers pass-rusher Brian Burns at the trade deadline suggests they are in no mood to move off their current course no matter what happens. I just wonder whether or not Kupp going down and 2022 going to shit will mark the watershed moment a la Icarus flying too close to the sun wherein everything went down in a spectacular ball of flames.
Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok