Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 7)
MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images. Getty Images.The ever popular John Rich Tracking College Football Betting Strategies blog comes at a great time this week. I haven't been feeling very creative lately. The only blog I really enjoyed writing this week was my Stop Texting Frank The Tank blog. I haven't been struck with much inspiration. Maybe a gambling blog will help get my creative juices flowing.
Once again, every week, I hypothetically bet college football in 5 different ways, to see which strategy nets me the most hypothetical money.
Here the the 5 strategies I bet each week
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite
I pick 5 giant Money Line Favorites, that should be "guaranteed winners" to try and win a small amount of money every week
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs
I move the line of the over/under total on the Barstool Sportsbook as low as it will allow me, and bet the over
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs
I find the worst teams in college football, who are not expected to score many points, and bet their team total over. They're hilariously low sometimes
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders
Betting the under for the 1st Quarter
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays
Betting 5-leg long shot parlays. Just need one to hit every few weeks (hasn't hit once yet)
Let's review how last week went.
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: going into last week 13-2, -$45 (-0.45u)
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin (-400)
Wisonsin 42, Northwestern 7: Won $25
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt: Ole Miss (-835)
Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 28: Won $12
Washington @ Arizona State: Washington (-590)
Washington 38, Arizona State 45: Loss $100
Army @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest (-770)
Army 10, Wake Forest 45: Won $13
Missouri @ Florida: Florida (-420)
Missouri 17, Florida 24: Won $24
4-1, -$26 (-0.26u) last week. Michael Penix Jr. can only last for so long, sorry Washington. I watched Penix too long on Indiana to be betting on him as often as I am. I also didn't factor in how much losing Herm Edwards would improve Arizona State. Just a dumb bet all around.
Total: 17-3, -$71, (-0.71u)
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: going into last week 14-1, $358 (+3.58u)
Clemson @ Boston College: Over 40.5
Clemson 31, Boston College 3: Loss $100
Iowa @ Illinois: Over 29
Iowa 6, Illinois 8: Loss $100
Auburn @ Georgia: Over 41.5
Auburn 10, Georgia 42: Win $33
Purdue @ Maryland: Over 50.5
Purdue 31, Maryland 29: Win $33
Missouri @ Florida: Over 45.5
Missouri 17, Florida 24: Loss $100
2-3, -$234 (-2.34u) last week. Big yikes. I'd been so hot with these up until last week. This was bound to happen. I was counting on Clemson to hit the over on their own, couldn't quite get it done for me. The Iowa/Illinois over was never a good bet, I just loved having 'Over 29' on my card (they barely made it halfway there). Missouri almost made the comeback to get me over the number, but Florida held them off. This was just never going to be a sustainable strategy.
Total 16-4, $124, (+1.24u)
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: going into last week 8-7, $8 (+0.08u)
Liberty @ UMass: UMass over 10.5
Liberty 42, Umass 24: Win $110
Hawaii @ San Diego State: Hawaii over 13.5
Hawaii 14, San Diego State 16: Win $98
Texas A&M @ Alabama: Texas A&M over 13.5
Texas A&M 20, Alabama 24: Win $90
Clemson @ Boston College: Boston College over 13.5
Clemson 31, Boston College 3: Loss $100
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Northwestern over 16.5
Nebraska 42, Northwestern 7: Loss $100
3-2, $98, (+0.98u) last week. Not too shabby. If I had just stayed away from Boston College entirely last week, I would be in much better shape. I was expecting them to be an above average ACC team this year. They had a horrible start, but for some reason their win over Louisville a couple weeks ago made me think they might get back on track (not sure why because Louisville is also horrible). But I was wrong. They're just pathetic. Northwestern is pathetic as well.
Total 11-9, $106, (+1.06u)
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: going into last week 11-4, $498, (+4.98u)
BYU @ Notre Dame: Under 10.5
1Q Points, 9: Won $81
Iowa @ Illinois: Under 7.5
1Q Points, 6: Won $66
Tulsa @ Navy: Under 9.5
1Q Points, 17: Loss $100
Michigan @ Indiana: Under 13.5
1Q Points, 17: Loss $100
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Under 13.5
1Q Points, 14: Loss $100
2-3, -$153, (-1.53u) last week. We're slowly losing it. 1Q under were automatic the first 2 weeks I did this, but it appears teams have remembered how to play football at the start of the game again. Still very positive overall.
Total: 13-7, $345, (+3.45u)
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: going into last week 0-15, -$1500, (-15.0u)
Parlay 1
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Arkansas (+9)
Arkansas 17, Mississippi State 40
Michigan @ Indiana: Indiana (+22.5)
Michigan 31, Indiana 10
Missouri @ Florida: Missouri (+11)
Missouri 17, Florida 24
Oklahoma @ Texas: Oklahoma (+8.5)
Texas 49, Oklahoma 0
Purdue @ Maryland: Purdue ML (+130)
Purdue 31, Maryland 29
Loss $100
Parlay 2
Oklahoma @ Texas: Oklahoma ML (+240)
Texas 49, Oklahoma 0
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Arkansas ML (+250)
Arkansas 17, Mississippi State 40
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State ML (-375)
Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma State 41
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin ML (-420)
Wisconsin 42, Northwestern 7
Florida State @ NC State: NC State ML (-157)
Florida State 17, NC State 19
Loss $100
Parlay 3
TCU @ Kansas: TCU (-7)
TCU 38, Kansas 31
Tennessee @ LSU: Tennessee (-2.5)
Tennessee 40, LSU 14
Auburn @ Georgia: Auburn (+30)
Auburn 10, Georgia 42
North Carolina @ Miami: Miami ML (-186)
North Carolina 27, Miami 24
BYU @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame ML (-175)
BYU 20, Notre Dame 28
Loss $100
Parlay 4
Texas A&M @ Alabama: Texas A&M (+24.5)
Texas A&M 20, Alabama 24
South Carolina @ Kentucky: Kentucky (-6.5)
South Carolina 24, Kentucky 14
Kansas State @ Iowa State: Kansas State (-1)
Kansas State 10, Iowa State 9
Iowa @ Illinois: Over 36.5
Iowa 6, Illinois 9
Duke @ Georgia Tech: Duke ML (-175)
Duke 20, Georgia Tech 23
Loss $100
Parlay 5
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Under 44
Wisconsin 42, Northwestern 7
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU ML (+117)
Tennessee 40, LSU 13
TCU @ Kansas: Kansas ML (+215)
TCU 38, Kansas 31
Oklahoma @ Texas: Texas ML (-315)
Texas 49, Oklahoma 0
Buffalo @ Bowling Green: Bowling Green ML (+104)
Buffalo 38, Bowling Green 7
Loss $100
0-5, -$500 (-5.0u) last week. Again. This was the worst one yet. Way too many bets hinged on Oklahoma and Arkansas. I won't make that mistake again this week. Unless I convince myself that they're going to bounce back. What am I saying.. of course I'm going to convince myself that they're going to bounce back. I'm getting to the point where I'm going to need to hit 2 of these to get positive.
Total 0-20, -$2000, (-20.0)
Standings Headed Into This Week
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 13-7, $345, (+3.45u)
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 16-4, $124 (+1.24u)
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 11-9, $106, (+1.06u)
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 17-3, -$71, (-0.71u)
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays Total 0-20, -$2000, (-20.0)
Time to pick some winners
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 17-3, -$71, (-0.71u)
Buffalo @ UMass: Buffalo (-835)
$100 to win $12
Maryland @ Indiana: Maryland (-420)
$100 to win $24
Wisconsin @ Michigan State: Wisconsin (-305)
$100 to win $33
Arizona @ Washington: Washington (-625)
$100 to win $16
Nebraska @ Purdue: Purdue (-590)
$100 to win $17
I watched Buffalo destroy my Bowling Green Falcons last weekend, so I'm high on them right now. I wouldn't necessarily classify Maryland or Wisconsin as "giant" favorites, but I feel good about them. I'm an Indiana Hoosiers fan, and I've been watching them this year. They just don't have it. Maryland still has something to play for. Michigan State just continues to be an embarrassment, so I don't see any reason to not keep picking against them. I think I've lost on Washington as a ML favorite the last 2 week - NO WAY they lose outright again (Penix). Purdue is the front runner to win the Big Ten West, I think they handle Nebraska.
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 16-4, $124 (+1.24u)
Iowa State @ Texas: Over 40.5
$100 to win $32
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green: Over 37.5
$100 to win $35
NC State @ Syracuse: Over 34.5
$100 to win $35
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Over 40.5
$100 to win $32
Nevada @ Hawaii: Over 41
$100 to win $32
I always go for the overs that I can move close to, or lower than 40. I trust Quinn Ewers and Texas' offense to put some points up. I always have to take my alma mater Bowling Green in one way or another, so might as well cheer for them to score points. Syracuse and Mississippi State are going up against good defenses, but they've been scoring a ton of point all year. There's no reason to believe in Hawaii's offense, but a late night Hawaii over is always fun.
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Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 11-9, $106, (+1.06u)
Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Vanderbilt over 9.5
$100 to win $86
UTSA @ FIU: FIU over 14.5
$100 to win $117
Minnesota @ Illinois: Illinois over 16.5
$100 to win $93
New Mexico @ New Mexico State: New Mexico State over 15.5
$100 to win $85
San Jose State @ Fresno State: Fresno State over 18.5
$100 to win $85
Maybe Georgia will be nice and pull some starters. I think Illinois has a chance to win. New Mexico State always makes their way into this strategy somehow - anything can happen in the New Mexico Bowl. For the other ones, to be honest, I really just went for the ugliest games I could find.
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 13-7, $345, (+3.45u)
Kansas @ Oklahoma: 1Q under 13.5
$100 to win $104
Alabama @ Tennessee: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $75
James Madison @ Georgia Southern: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $70
North Carolina @ Duke: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $76
USC @ Utah: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $61
Went with some higher totals this week, hoping that they get out to some slow starts. Interesting how much worse the odds are for any 1Q under that's higher than 14 points.
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays Total 0-20, -$2000, (-20.0)
Parlay 1
LSU @ Florida: Florida ML (-148) - Toss up to me. Will take it both ways
Clemson @ Florida State: Clemson ML (-177) - very surprised this isn't more like -225
Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Georgia (-38.5) - Biggest number on the board I think, Georgia kills Candy
Arkansas @ BYU: Arkansas ML (-109) - I'm a sucker for taking the SEC over smaller schools
Iowa State @ Texas: Over 48.5 - Texas might hit this on their own
$100 to win $1747.42
Parlay 2
Iowa State @ Texas: Iowa State (+15.5) - is Iowa State that bad? I think it could be close-ish
Auburn @ Ole Miss: Auburn (+15) - I keep convincing myself that Auburn can beat anybody on any given day
NC State @ Syracuse: NC State ML (+143) - NC State has played bigger games against better teams this year
Oklahoma State @ TCU: TCU ML (-186) - This one is a toss up to me. Will hedge in a different parlay
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Mississippi State ML (-186) - I like Miss States offense better than Kentucky's D
$100 to win $2,035.42
Parlay 3
Wisconsin @ Michigan State: Wisconsin ML (-305) - needed an easy one
LSU @ Florida: LSU ML (+120) - hedging my Florida ML bet
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Kentucky ML (+145) - heading my Miss St bet
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Under 49 - if Kentucky wins it's going to be ugly
USC @ Utah: Utah ML (-167) - heard Big Cat say if he was allowed to he would make Utah a GOTY
$100 to win $2006.72
Parlay 4
Penn State @ Michigan: Michigan ML (-286) - needed an easy one (hopefully) again
Alabama @ Tennessee: Tennessee (+9) - this moved from +6.5 to +9 while I was writing this
NC State @ Syracuse: Over 42 - Syracuse and overs go well together. I'm ignoring NC States defense
North Carolina @ Duke: Duke ML (+200) - rivalry game, going for some long shots here
USC @ Utah: USC ML (+135) - Utah hedge
$100 to win $3,335.82
Parlay 5 - hedging everything else
North Carolina @ Duke: North Carolina ML (-265)
Clemson @ Florida State: Florida State ML (+145)
Oklahoma State @ TCU: Oklahoma State ML (+150)
Alabama @ Tennessee: Alabama (-9)
NC State @ Syracuse: Syracuse ML (-175)
$100 to win $2,464.15
Tried to put myself on both sides of several games for these parlays. I've done a little bit of that, but I committed more heavily to the strategy this week. If I hit one this week then we'll be close to even again.
God Bless.